Daryl Carter has been in great form over the last few weeks and he has six selections for Ayr and Newbury on Sunday. Check out his tips below and join Sportnation and claim up to £50 in free bets!
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GRAND SANCY – (1.15 Ayr, 1pt win – 5/2)
Underwhelming in two starts this term in good quality handicaps the last twice this smaller field scenario should suit GRAND SANCY for who the drop back to 2m looks a big positive. He has had two starts over this trip and they both came on unfavoured soft ground in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company with the former on chase debut. The handicapper has been quick to relent by dropping him 4lbs in two starts and the hood goes back on after being keen and not seeing out his race last time when third at Newbury over 2m4f. On the bare form of his two runs over this trip, he looks well treated off this mark of 145 with the four horses to have finished in front of him rated 145, 161. 153 and 166. This is a weaker contest than he has been contesting of late and his jumping will be an asset in this home straight so gets the vote.
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UMM KULTHUM – (2.10 – Newbury, 1pt each-way – 7/1)
There is not much to separate favourite Alcohol Free and UMM KULTHUM on their meeting at Newbury in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes in which the pair finished 1st and 3rd and that looks the right form line to take into this race. The selection was extremely keen at Newmarket in the early stages and can have her effort upgraded after only narrowly failing by 3/4 of a length. The Newmarket track didn’t play to her strengths either with her long stride more suited to a flatter track such as the one today, so the price disparity between the two looks too big. Richard Fahey’s filly did nothing wrong last term likely over a trip that will prove well short of what she needs going forward with all of her best work over 6f coming inside the final furlong. Today’s step up in trip, flat track, fast ground and guaranteed strong pace will play to her strengths and she looks an exciting prospect to go to war with for the yard this season.
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ALKUMAIT – (2.45 Newbury, 1pt win – 11/2)
This race tends to produce a superstar so I want to be at the head of the market and more importantly, with ALKUMAIT who’s run at Newmarket on his final start of the season was too bad to be true. He is better judged on his two earlier performances notably his excellent win here over 6f over Fivethousandtoone which recorded a blistering time figure and was an impressive visual performance. The step up to 7f should suit his strong travelling nature and the return to Newbury is a big positive so he is favoured over Chindit who may need this first run of the season. Jim Crowley likely had the choice between the selection and Mujbar and he was rarely wrong last term but the latter shaped as though he wanted much further than this so the decision is baffling for all perhaps a warning.
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TAMAROC DU MATHAN – (3.00 Ayr, 2pts win – 15/8)
A small but quality field and TAMAROC DU MATHAN is a confident selection. The six-year-old has improved with each start over fences and has only found Shishkin too good and he wasn’t hard pushed to tackle that rival on that occasion. He has the perfect blend of speed and stamina to see off this field and he looks like a progressive horse to keep the right side of notably on good ground with form figures reading 1175 (the last two before wind surgery). There are four fences in the home straight here at Ayr and his clean jumping should be able to see him come out on top of Allmankind. The favourite is 10lbs clear on official ratings but he has earned that over 2m and this step up in trip to 2m4f for the keen going sort isn’t guaranteed to suit and should he find this trip stretching his stamina, then the four fences in the home straight could find him out.
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NUGGET – (3.20 Newbury, 1pt each-way – 9/1)
NUGGET continues to improve for Richard Hannon and he caught the eye on a low key return at Nottingham 11 days ago when denied a clear run which almost certainly cost him the race and the handicapper seems to have missed it by leaving him on the same handicap mark of 92. The two horses that finished in front of him that day are both useful progressive types and it looks like a race to follow but his previous win at Newmarket on the final start of last season makes him look well treated. He beat horses that are now rated 11lb, 5lb and 3lb higher in the handicap and he was unfortunate not to win at Windsor prior from a wide draw in stall 12. This race looks like the perfect scenario for him and he is entitled to improve again for race fitness so gets the vote in a very competitive handicap with History Writer feared the most.
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GOOD BIRTHDAY – (5:05 Newbury, 1pt win – 9/1)
GOOD BIRTHDAY had an extremely disappointing season last term and took many punters to the edge but in the hope that the break has done him the world of good, he is worth another chance now into a 0-85 for the first time. His form is so strong in the context of this race he is hard to ignore and his three best career runs have come here at Newbury so there is no better track to give him one last punt. His form figures fresh read 311 and the cheek-pieces he wore which saw him disappoint in six runs last term are now discarded and he is now 9lbs lower than his last victory at Beverly over this trip so while the bet is sentimental, it makes sense.
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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
GRAND SANCY – (1.15 Ayr, 1pt win – 5/2)
UMM KULTHUM – (2.10 – Newbury, 1pt each-way – 7/1)
ALKUMAIT – (2.45 Newbury, 1pt win – 11/2)
TAMAROC DU MATHAN – (3.00 Ayr, 2pts win – 15/8)
NUGGET – (3.20 Newbury, 1pt each-way – 9/1)
GOOD BIRTHDAY – (5:05 Newbury, 1pt win – 9/1)
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