Top GG Tipster Daryl Carter has five bets on a bumper Wednesday’s racing. Check out his thoughts below, which come alongside an exclusive Sky Bet offer that provides £20 in free bets when you place an initial £5 qualifying bet.
BRUNNERA (2.15 Yarmouth, 1pt each-way, 10/1)
The draw plays a big part at Yarmouth over 10f with those drawn low winning 12.5% of the time compared to those drawn high only 7.1%, and they also do much better than the market expects, not great signs for favourite Technique. This track can see congestion behind the leaders, and there may be some hard-luck stories.
Sweet Believer could yet be anything, and she is of interest, but her form needs improving on in this company, and it pains me not to side with her. BRUNNERA caught the eye travelling powerfully at York in the Henry Cecil, and that race has a good bit of depth to it. She did best of those other than Glenartney to come from the rear of the field, but she was denied a clear passage on two occasions and couldn’t get fully wound up.
The trip probably stretched her stamina as well, so the drop back to 1m2f looks a good move. She was highly progressive over this trip in three starts at Newmarket, and it’s highly likely we haven’t got to the bottom of her. It’s hard to kick her out of the frame here from a good draw and a likely prominent ride now back down in trip, and there is reason to think she has more to offer yet.
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BLUE DE VEGA (2.45 Yarmouth, 1pt win, 15/2)
I am surprised BLUE DE VEGA is the outsider of the field here with the amount of pace on paper. Look Out Louis, King Of Stars and Newyorkstateofmind all like to be ridden on the front end of the pace, and Cairn Gorm will likely be run off his feet in this baffling move down to five furlongs.
The selection is vulnerable to an improver, but he sits on a fair mark of 93 given he bolted up three starts ago off 91 (under a claimer) in a similar event and failed to get a clear run off 95 last time at Ascot. He tends to come good at this time of year and is 7lbs lower than when beaten in this race last year, and his trainer has form figures of 35112 with runners in this contest.
This is a step up in class for both Look Out Louis and Newyorkstateofmind, and King Of Stars has looked vulnerable at the death in well-run 5f races. Robert Cowell may have found the right spot for Blue De Vega to score again.
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MARIE’S DIAMOND (3.20 Yarmouth, 1pt win, 9/2)
MARIE’S DIAMOND’S wins have all come when making the running or pressing the leader, and he will have zero competition for the lead today with all of his rivals usually held up off the pace, and it’s a positive sign to see master front running jockey Silvestre De Sousa on board. He will be able to control this race from the outset, and while he could have done with being drawn high, with the sheer lack of pace in the race, it may not prove a hindrance.
He is the class act in the field, and nothing else looks particularly well treated. Ajyaall finds very little off the bridle and often flatters to deceive while Dejame Paso could be on the upgrade, but his form is not of the level required here. United Front has a bit to prove on turf on the back of a break and a gelding op, while Ropey Guest surely wants seven furlongs. That leaves Chance, who was on the upgrade last term and may have needed the outing at Newbury, so he can be expected to take a step forward and is feared the most. However, he is a free going sort and may require a more vigorous pace, so the Johnston horse edges the vote.
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PEROTTO (3.30 Sandown, 1pt win, 13/2)
The easy mile at Goodwood and the widest draw in stall 9, which meant he got no cover for much of the race, were both against PEROTTO. He was cleverly covered up entering the straight but then found himself with nowhere to go and had to wait for a run, but he finished strongly in a highly competitive Group 2 Celebration Mile.
That performance has been underestimated here in favour of the lesser exposed Mostahdaf whose form is not up to the level of a few of these yet. Three-year-olds have a fantastic record in this contest, and Perotto would have likely won at Salisbury on his penultimate start but for interference in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes inside the final 50 yards from Megallan and Sir Busker.
He will surely be getting his head in front before the season is out, and this contest represents a drop in grade against plenty of exposed rivals. A stiff mile clearly suits him best, and he gets that today as he returns to Sandown, for which he won on his sole visit as a two-year-old. Mostahdaf is fresher than most and must be feared, but his price suggests he has already reached the level of a few of these, and he hasn’t.
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ZIGGY (4.40 Sandown, 1pt win, 4/1)
ZIGGY has been a work in progress for connections, and he has improved with each run this season, and anything shorter than his last three runs over 10f can be easily forgiven. He looks a strong stayer in the making and a progressive one at that. At Lingfield, on his first attempt at this trip, he raced on the wrong side of the track on his own, and all runners that day on the soft ground (other than one 6f winner) were failing to see out their races on the stands rail.
He stuck to the task gamely to only be touched off by 1/2 a length. That form is not good enough here, but there are reasons to upgrade the performance. He bolted up next time on a sounder surface at Nottingham off a handicap mark of 69 very, very easily, and the handicapper gave him an 11lbs rise. His latest effort at Goodwood was very eye-catching when short of room at the finish and failing to quicken on the downhill part of the track, but he stayed on very powerfully at the finish after travelling like the best horse in the race off a 1lb lower mark.
He is still on the upgrade and very lightly raced. Today is a drop-in class as he sneaks into a 0-80, and his Goodwood run has worked out well with the runner up now 6lbs higher and a subsequent Ascot winner. The winner wasn’t disgraced when sixth at York in a hot race and failed to see out the new trip. Wallem could have a bigger effort in him, and he looks well treated on the bare form, but those horses all did finish in front of him, and he hasn’t been the strongest at the death but is a clear danger.
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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
BRUNNERA (2.15 Yarmouth, 1pt each-way, 10/1)
BLUE DE VEGA (2.45 Yarmouth, 1pt win, 15/2)
MARIE’S DIAMOND (3.20 Yarmouth, 1pt win, 9/2)
PEROTTO (3.30 Sandown, 1pt win, 13/2)
ZIGGY (4.40 Sandown, 1pt win, 4/1)
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