The Group 2 Hungerford Stakes is the key race of the weekend at Newbury, with those rated just below the top level ready to do battle. GG tipster Joe Napier previews the contest, and gives his verdict.
Favourites
Since joining William Haggas, More Thunder has progressed at a significant rate, thanks to a complete change of tack at his new Newmarket base. Having raced only at 1m1f and beyond, he was dropped right back to 6f for his stable debut, winning comfortably on the Rowley Mile and then repeating the trick three weeks later. A close second in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot was proceeded by his first win upped to 7f on the July Course last month.
However, he is still bottom on ratings here and two of those three victories have been by minuscule margins. He can still progress, but needs to here, with both Spy Chief and King’s Gamble holding superior form at this stage.
The former was second in a below par running of the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at the royal meeting, but that was still a big improvement and the form is not too bad. His seventh in the Group 1 July Cup, when back to 6f, saw him stay on when outpaced, dropping almost to last of 14 before rallying. This distance is more his optimum and he is related to three Pattern race scorers.
King’s Gamble, meanwhile, returned from almost a year off to finish second in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes over 6f at this venue in July. He is another to have stepped back in trip, finishing second to subsequent Lockinge winner Lead Artist over 1m at Goodwood last campaign, and if he does not bounce after that return run, he should be involved.
Contenders
Rage Of Bamby won the aforementioned Hackwood Stakes in a 33/1 upset. Eve Johnson Houghton’s yard were probably in better form then than now, but she has improved comfortably with every run this season and 7f is within range if proving that run to be no fluke result.
Witness Stand is another recent Group winner at a big price. He recorded a 25/1 shock in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but carries a 3lb penalty for his troubles. Although a decisive winner, the official going description of “good” was likely wide of the mark after heavy rain, and the race fell apart in behind the pacesetters. His course and distance Listed success last term also came on soft.
Another specialist when “soft” is in the surface is Great Generation. She has won twice in good ground Group 3s at Lingfield, but the form of her second win in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes looks mixed at best, so while she then ran perfectly respectably when ninth in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 6f at Royal Ascot, the Brits were firmly put in their place by international sprinters that day.
Outsiders
A revival from Alyanaabi cannot be ruled out given Owen Burrows’ yard is bang in form at the moment, but he has largely been disappointing bar securing a very winnable Listed race at Haydock earlier this term. It is possible he is better fresh.
There are some interesting runners at big prices though. Marvelman looks up against it on recent efforts in the Jersey Stakes and at Chester, but Fair Angellica and Duty First both make appeal.
The former, trained by Richard Hughes, was an eyecatcher behind Rage Of Bamby and King’s Gamble over 6f at York, then lost at least six lengths at the start in Goodwood’s Group 3 Oak Tree Fillies’ Stakes. The distance she lost upon leaving the stalls, which is a one-off in her recent profile, was comfortably greater than the margin she lost by, so she could well be a livewire, even with form to turn around with a few of these.
Duty First stands out even more though. One of only two course and distance scorers in the field, she left a heady impression in the Fred Darling Stakes on her return when bolting up in that key 1000 Guineas trial. The likes of Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals were behind that day as she string the field out, and it is possible she has not quite seen out 1m the last thrice, despite a respectable fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas, which has worked out very well.
Verdict
The market believes More Thunder can progress past all of his rivals, but at the bottom of the ratings, he does not appeal at his current price. Jersey Stakes runner-up Spy Chief looks an obvious type to continue his improvement after running well enough in the July Cup, while King’s Gamble may be at his optimum trip here. That could well be the case for DUTY FIRST though, who was a rampant winner of the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes to begin her campaign, and there were some useful fillies behind her that day. 1m has possibly been beyond Archie Watson’s daughter of Showcasing since, but back to 7f, a repeat of that performance is not ruled out. Fair Angellica has been a big eyecatcher the last twice and could also feature as long as she does not blow the start again.
- Duty First
- Spy Chief
- Fair Angellica
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