This race used to be part of Cheltenham’s December meeting but was moved to Trials Day from 2024 meaning there was no running in 2023. In 2022 the race was not run due to a frozen track so we’ve seen a change in this race in the last two runnings especially with Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill adding their name to list when the four prior winners didn’t have a Grade 1 between them.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared to the last two renewals since the change which I appreciate is a small sample size but can highlight the potential new requirements while still observing the history of the race from this century at least.
KEY TRENDS
- 5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind but the race now runs post January
- Favourites are profitable to follow but avoid second favourites (just 1 this century)
- Ideally won last time out but no worse than Top 3 last time out
- Preferably a Grade 1 winner
- Has run over further than 2m1f in their career and likely won over further too
- Has won at Cheltenham before
- Respect runners with 7 or more runs over hurdles but must have at least 4 wins over hurdles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 4/24 (17%) & 0/2 (0%)
- 5yo – 10/24 (42%) & 1/2 (50%)
- 6yo – 3/24 (12%) & 0/2 (0%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (12%) & 0/2 (0%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/2 (50%)
- 9yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/2 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/2 (0%)
5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century and show a 79% ROI with a 25% strike rate. This is well clear of any of age for this contest.
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/24 (63%) & 2/2 (100%)
- Second favourites – 1/24 (4%) & 0/2 (0%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 13/24 (54%) & 2/2 (100%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind and cover the majority of winners this century showing a 25% ROI if simply backing these blind. Second favourites are huge loss makers with just a 4% strike rate and a negative 73% ROI. The market knows best.
Backing all runners priced 9/4 or shorter has also been profitable blind this century but shows a 17% ROI so favourites alone are better to follow than look for a price window at the front of the market.
OFFICIAL RATING (including mares allowance)
- Winners with an OR of 151 or more – 20/24 (83%) & 2/2 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 11/24 (46%) & 1/2 (50%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 11/24 (46%) & 2/2 (100%)
Backing the highest rated runner in this field has found almost half of the winners this century but shows a small £1.12 loss backing blind. You can make this profitable to follow though if you put a cap of 8/1 at SP which brings it to around a 10% ROI strategy.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Cheltenham or Punchestown – 12/24 (50%) & 1/2 (50%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 Days – 18/24 (75%) & 1/2 (50%)
- Won last time out – 14/24 (58%) & 2/2 (100%)
- Top 3 last time out – 22/24 (92%) & 2/2 (100%)
We need to be mindful of the change in date that this race is now run, but half of the winners of this race came from Punchestown, Ascot or Cheltenham last time out and each of those are profitable to back blind on their own. Most winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago. Last time out winners are profitable to back blind and if you brough in those who placed second and third you’d find another third of the winners, but neither of those are profitable to back blind.
COURSE FORM (2001 renewal ran in Newbury and 2008 renewal ran in Ascot)
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 19/22 (79%) & 2/2 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 14/19 (74%) & 2/2 (100%)
Cheltenham being Cheltenham it’s no surprise most winners had been here before. It’s not profitable to follow that blind and even adding in horses who had won here before isn’t although it does show a better losing ROI.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had run NO further than about 2m1f – 5/24 (21%) & 0/2 (0%)
- Winners who had won NO further than about 2m1f – 13/24 (54%) & 0/2 (0%)
Distance form shows that most winners of this race had raced at 2m2f or further in their career, but most winners had also NOT won at further than 2m1f. If you looked at the latter part of that statement in terms of backing blind, you’d show a profit following horses who had NOT won over further than 2m1f and a loss following those who had.
CAREER FORM
- Had 7 or more RUNS over hurdles – 21/24 (88%) & 1/2 (50%)
- Had 5 or more WINS over hurdles – 11/24 (46%) & 1/2 (50%)
It’s a loss maker if you follow all runners blind who had 7 or more runs over hurdles but it will find you most winners. More winners than not had won no more than 4 times over hurdles but they’re a loss maker to follow blind. Winners with 5 or more previous wins over hurdles are also loss makers blind, but they lose less money than those with fewer hurdle wins.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 13/24 (54%) & 2/2 (100%)
Despite this being a Grade 2, most winners had already tasted Grade 1 success before taking this and the last two winners would be considered proper Grade 1 horses.