There have been four dual 1000 Guineas winners this century but there have been eight winners of this Irish version who failed to win the English Guineas at Newmarket.
Like the 2000 Guineas trends, the English version is a big indicator towards potential winners of this race, but I’ve looked at a number of trends across this century and the last decade to see if we can profile the likely winner this year.
KEY TRENDS
- There is no significant draw bias
- Will have an OR of at least 100 and preferably 106 or higher
- Respect runners with an SP of 17/2 to 12/1
- Unlikely to be the top-rated runner in the field
- Likely to have come from the Newmarket or Leopardstown last time out
Focused Trends
STALL
- Lowest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Highest three stalls – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
Although there have been more winners from the lowest three stalls than the highest three stalls, this century you’d have covered yourself backing the highest but be showing around a £30 loss if backing the lowest.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Priced 5/2 to 6/1 – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 17/2 to 12/1 – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
Favourites are marginally profitable to back blind although it’s around a 2.5-5% ROI.
You’d lose money this century backing all runners priced 5/2 to 6/1 but it’s showing around a 30% ROI in the last decade.
Across both periods, backing all runners with an SP between 17/2 and 12/1 has been profitable blind at around a 50% ROI.
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2015)
- Winners with an OR of 100 or higher – 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 106 or higher – 8/10 (80%)
- Top-rated runner – 2/10 (20%)
All winners in the last decade held an OR of at least 100 and most winners were rated 106 or higher.
The top-rated runner has been the favourite on 7 occasions however only two of those won and both were odds-on shots.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Similarly to the 2,000 Guineas, the number of last time out winners has dropped in expectation given there can only be one winner of the British version or the Leopardstown trial but those two races alone account for more than half of the runners in the last decade.
Most winners will have run in the last 16-30 days, but you can’t make money backing all those runners blind although if you backed all runners who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago, you would be profitable across both periods.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at The Curragh – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at The Curragh – 5/14 (36%) & 2/6 (33%)
Course form doesn’t seem crucial for this race and even those who had run here aren’t expected to have won here too.
Of those of who hadn’t run here, 6 were British trained (3 were favourite) and the other 5 were all Aidan O’Brien trained (only 1 of his was sent off favourite)
FORM
- Had run at 8-furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won over 8-furlongs – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Peak RPR of 105 or higher – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won a Group race – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Only one winner was unbeaten and took this race which came back in 2004. Most winners had run at a mile before now and most winners had recorded a Peak RPR of 105 or higher. Around two-thirds of winners had already won a Group Race which is very much in line with the boy’s version.
SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)
- 1,000 Guineas – 12 winners from 69 runners (2024)
- Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes – 4 winners from 25 runners (2022)
Two real notable paths into this race. It’s been a loss maker to follow ALL British 1,000 Guineas runners in this Irish version, but it’s been profitable to £13 from a £1 level stake if you backed all runners from the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes although only one winner had won both.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Fallen Angel (GB)
- 2023 – Tahiyra (IRE)
- 2022 – Homeless Songs (IRE)
- 2021 – Empress Josephine (IRE)
- 2020 – Peaceful (IRE)
- 2019 – Hermosa (IRE)
- 2018 – Alpha Centauri (IRE)
- 2017 – Winter (IRE)
- 2016 – Jet Setting (IRE)
- 2015 – Pleascach (IRE)
- 2014 – Marvellous (IRE)
- 2013 – Just The Judge (IRE)
- 2012 – Samitar (GB)
- 2011 – Misty For Me (IRE)
- 2010 – Bethrah (IRE)
- 2009 – Again (IRE)
- 2008 – Halfway To Heaven (IRE)
- 2007 – Finsceal Beo (IRE)
- 2006 – Nightime (IRE)
- 2005 – Saoire (GB)
- 2004 – Attraction (GB)
- 2003 – Yesterday (IRE)
- 2002 – Gossamer (GB)
- 2001 – Imagine (IRE)
- 2000 – Crimplene (IRE)