There have been five dual Guineas winners this century but there have been seven winners of this Irish version who failed to even place in the English Guineas at Newmarket.
That race is clearly a big indicator towards potential winners of this race, but I’ve looked at a number of trends across this century and the last decade to see how we can profile the likely winner this year.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw isn’t a dealbreaker, but the lowest three stalls have accounted for more than half of the winners
- Respect favourites if they’re odds-on
- Will have already won at The Curragh or is British-trained
- Should have raced at a mile already
- Ideally has an OR of 110 or higher and has recorded a peak RPR of 114 or higher
Focused Trends
STALL
- Lowest three stalls – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Highest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
There have consistently been more winners from the lowest three stalls compared to the highest three stalls. The lowest three stalls have shown a small loss blind this century but do a near £6 profit from the last decade. The highest three stalls are big loss makers blind this century but only slight loss makers in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Odds-On winners – 6/8 (75%) & 4/4 (100%)
Favourites are NOT profitable to back blind across either period however backing odds-on favourites is. They have a 75% strike rate this century and a 100% strike rate this last decade.
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2008)
- Winners with an OR of 105 or higher – 17/17 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 110 or higher – 14/17 (82%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Top-rated runner – 9/17 (53%) & 5/10 (50%)
All winners since 2008 held an OR of at least 105 and most winners were rated 110 or higher.
The Top-Rated runner has taken around half of the renewals since 2008 and shows over a 12% ROI to SP alone in that period. There have been 9 clear favourites who were Top-Rated with 7 of those winning which greatly improves the ROI to near 50%.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran 8-30 days ago – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Being a Grade 1, it was slightly surprising to see that less than half of winners this century won last time out. Most winners come from the British 2,000 Guineas though so there can only be one winner of that each year and they don’t always come to try and win this too.
Most winners will have run in the last 8-30 days, but you can’t make money backing all those runners blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at The Curragh – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at The Curragh – 14/17 (82%) & 7/8 (88%)
All of the 8 winners who had NOT run at The Curragh were British trained winners. Of those who had already run at The Curragh, the vast majority had won here too.
FORM
- Had run at 8-furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won over 8-furlongs – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Peak RPR of 114 or higher – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Has won a Group race – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
Only one winner was unbeaten and took this race. Most winners had run at a mile before now and most winners had recorded a Peak RPR of 114 or higher. Around two-thirds of winners had already won a Group Race.
SIGNIFICANT RACES ON LAST RUN (and last year the Guineas winner took in the race)
- 2,000 Guineas – 16 winners from 69 runners (2024)
- Tetrarch Stakes – 4 winners from 38 runners (2023)
Two real notable paths into this race.It’s been a small loss maker to follow ALL British 2,000 Guineas runners in this Irish version, but it’s been profitable to £16 from a £1 level stake if you backed all runners from the Tetrarch Stakes.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Rosallion (IRE)
- 2023 – Paddington (GB)
- 2022 – Native Trail (GB)
- 2021 – Mac Swiney (IRE)
- 2020 – Siskin (USA)
- 2019 – Phoenix Of Spain (IRE)
- 2018 – Romanised (IRE)
- 2017 – Churchill (IRE)
- 2016 – Awtaad (IRE)
- 2015 – Gleneagles (IRE)
- 2014 – Kingman (GB)
- 2013 – Magician (IRE)
- 2012 – Power (GB)
- 2011 – Roderic OConnor (IRE)
- 2010 – Canford Cliffs (IRE)
- 2009 – Mastercraftsman (IRE)
- 2008 – Henrythenavigator (USA)
- 2007 – Cockney Rebel (IRE)
- 2006 – Araafa (IRE)
- 2005 – Dubawi (IRE)
- 2004 – Bachelor Duke (USA)
- 2003 – Indian Haven (GB)
- 2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)
- 2001 – Black Minnaloushe (USA)
- 2000 – Bachir (IRE)