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    Irish Champion Hurdle Trends 2026 - Does It Pay To Stick With "Best Of The Best"?

    David Young
    David Young
    January 22, 2026
    Irish Champion Hurdle Trends 2026 - Does It Pay To Stick With "Best Of The Best"?

    Just 16 different names grace the Irish Champion Hurdle honours board this century, but with the likes of Istabraq, Hurricane Fly, Honeysuckle and State Man it’s clearly the best of the best who land this contest.

    I’ve looked at every running this century and compared to the last decade to see if it’s simply the best who land this or if there’s more to it.

    KEY TRENDS

    • Most likely to be aged between 6 and 8
    • Favourites are profitable to back blind and second favourites are heavy loss makers
    • Must have an OR of 160 or higher but probably 165 or higher including mares’ allowance
    • Should have won last time out
    • Should have won at Leopardstown and respect favourites who have won here 3 or more times
    • Preference goes to runners with exactly 2 runs this season
    • Expected to be a multiple Grade 1 winner before now

    AGE

    • 6yo – 8/26 (31%) & 3/10 (30%)
    • 7yo – 4/26 (15%) & 3/10 (30%)
    • 8yo – 7/26 (27%) & 4/10 (40%)
    • 9yo – 3/26 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • 10yo – 2/26 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • 11yo – 2/26 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)

    Bar 7-year-olds who hold just an 11% strike rate this century; all other winning ages have a strike rate in the 20%’s but it’s only 10-year-olds who are profitable to back blind.

    There hasn’t been a winner older than 8 in the last decade and in it’s 8-year-olds that perform with the highest strike rate and the only positive ROI at 38%.

    PRICE

    • Favourites – 20/26 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • 2nd favourites – 2/26 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • SP of 6/4 or shorter – 21/26 (81%) & 9/10 (90%)

    This century, favourites show a 31% ROI if just backing blind but it’s notable that second favourites are massive loss makers with a negative 77% ROI.

    If you had simply backed all runners with an SP of 6/4 or shorter you’d be showing a 45% ROI so maybe rather than just following in the jolly, you want to gain confidence in favourites priced 6/4 or shorter

    Similar story from the last decade in terms of performance figures. ROI for favourites sits at 34% and 30% for all runners with an SP of 6/4 or under. Second favourites are still heavy loss makers given their expected number of winners.

    OFFICIAL RATING

    • Winner has an OR of 160 or higher – 20/26 (77%) & 7/10 (70%)
    • Winner has an OR of 165 or higher – 18/26 (69%) & 6/10 (60%)

    Any championship race should be attracting the best of the best and with an Irish dominance in the 2-mile hurdling division, and in fact NH racing in modern times, the bar is set at a minimum of 160 but preferably 165. In fact, 14 of the last 16 winners held an OR of 165 or higher including the mare’s allowance

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Finished 1st last time out – 18/26 (69%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Ran at Leopardstown – 16/26 (62%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Last ran between 16-30 days – 11/26 (42%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • Last ran between 31-60 days – 9/26 (35%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Last ran between 61-365 days – 6/26 (23%) & 3/10 (30%)

    Most winners of this race won last time out and most winner last ran in Leopardstown which will also influence the number of days since last ran. While most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago (depending on when the Leopardstown December Hurdle was held) backing all those runners blind is the heaviest loss maker and horses who last ran between 61 and 365 days ago have a far better strike rate and a much lower losing ROI.

    Honeysuckle skews the last decade figures given she typically came from the Hatton’s Grace in Fairyhouse.

    COURSE FORM

    • Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 22/26 (85%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Winners who had WON at Leopardstown 3 or more time – 12/26 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)

    Most winners of this race had already won at Leopardstown but you wouldn’t make money just following all those qualifiers and it’s a fairly heavy loss maker.

    You would make money though if you backed all runners with 3 or more previous wins at this track and that shows an 11% ROI to SP but improves to 57% at SP if coupling with the qualifier being the favourite also. It’s the same picture in the last decade if coupled with favouritism status but shows a losing ROI for just having 3 or more wins here.

    SEASON & CAREER FORM

    • Winners who had exactly 2 runs that season – 13/26 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Winners who had 11 or more career hurdle wins – 11/26 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)

    While you’d still lose money if you backed all runners with 2 runs this season, it’s a much lower loss maker than backing horses with less or more runs and that runs true across both periods.

    Looking at the number of career wins; the more wins the better the ROI but the first positive ROI comes from backing all horses with 11 or more career wins showing a 6% ROI this century but it’s still a loss maker in the last decade.

    GRADED FORM

    • Had won a Grade 1 – 23/26 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Had won MORE than one Grade 1 – 21/26 (81%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Had won 5 or MORE Grade 1’s – 16/26 (62%) & 6/10 (60%)

    Most winners of this race were previous Grade 1 winners and given so many names appear on this list more than once, it’s no surprise that many winners had lots of Grade 1’s to their names.

    Looking at qualifiers who had 5 or more Grade 1 wins will show a 26% ROI this century but it’s a small loss maker in the last decade. More of a long term strategy than short term it would appear.