A relatively new race in the horse racing sphere having been first established in 1976 but its fast become a high quality launchpad for races such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup. Since 2009 it’s been part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge series with the winner earning an automatic invitation to compete in the same year’s Breeders’ Cup. Run over 1m 2f, it’s a potential leveller for those milers and mile and half horses and often attracts many of the best in training.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land one of the biggest flat races in the Autumn schedule.
KEY TRENDS
- 3yo’s have a great record and receive weight from their elders
- All but one winner this century was priced 8/1 or shorter
- Ideally should have run in a Group 1 last time out and at about 10 or 12 furlongs
- Will have at least one Group 1 win already, if 4yo+ then should have at least two
- Will be a winner over the 1m 2f trip already and if has run at Leopardstown they should have won here too
- Has 3 or more runs and has 2 or more wins this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3YO – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 4YO – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5YO – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
3yo’s have a very strong record in this race and not because they have more runners than other ages, just like last season with five 4yo’s taking on three 3yo’s. The average winning OR of 3yo’s is 123.5 and for 4 and 5yo’s it’s 123.3, however 3yo’s get 6lbs from their elders which seems to be more than helpful.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8/1 or shorter – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every winner this century, bar 25/1 winner Decorated Knight in 2017, has been priced 8/1 or shorter and around half of the winners were sent off as favourite. That said, while you’d secure first or second 18 times this century by supporting the jolly, you’d be making a level stake loss of a couple of pounds. To think that the likes of Galileo and Doyen have been beaten favourites in here shows there is depth in this race and that any horse is beatable.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/23 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
In the century band we’ve had one winner drawn slap bang in the middle so that’s why the total adds up to 23 and not 24. Still the balance across both period reads about the same with a small favouring to the higher draws. That said, the two dual winners of this race, Dylan Thomas & Magical both won from a high and a low draw so I really wouldn’t read too much into it.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
Being such a pivotal race in the autumn schedule, it’s no surprise to see most winners holding an OR of 120+ which has continued into the more recent trends. The dip appears to be coming from the truly exceptional horses as winners with an OR of 125+ are down from 42% this century to 30% in the last 10 but we may just lack the depth of old these days.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- About 10F – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- About 12F – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 21 days or less – 8/24 (33%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 28 days or less – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 43+ days ago – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- International Stakes – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
High Chaparral, Dylan Thomas, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn are enough recent names to confirm the calibre of horses who can win this, but as touched on before, the likes of Galileo and Doyen were beaten in this race so while it does clearly contain depth, it’s competitive. In fact, this entire division typically is, which is why the figure or under 50% of winners having won last time out isn’t a surprise.
80% or more winners had run in a Group 1 last time out which is more telling and all bar one winner this century ran at about 10 or 12 furlongs last time out. Over 70% ran at about 10 furlongs though and most ran inside the last 6 weeks with 80% of the last 10 winners having last ran inside the last 4 weeks.
10 winners this century came from the Juddmonte International stakes at York and 3 of the last 10 but while we won’t be seeing City Of Troy, it’s worth noting that just 3 of those 10 winners actually won the International but only 1 winner was outside the top 4 in the race. Bigger field this year though so ultimately, I’d view it fairly if they’re coming from the race regardless of position.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 8/10 (80%) & 3/4 (75%)
Around 40% of winners had graced Leopardstown before and around 80% of those had winning form here too. Good horses should be able to do it anywhere and Leopardstown is a fair track so unless a horse has shown a real dislike to it, I wouldn’t be against anything having their first look.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 10f – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won at 10f – 21/22 (95%) & 9/9 (100%)
By this time in the season, you’d have a reasonable idea about your horses best trip, and the best way to confirm that is by running over a variety which is why so many great milers and mile and halfers will have already tried the 10f trip. So, it’s a prerequisite that the winner of this should have run at the trip and also should have won.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 8/24 (33%) & 6/10 (60%)
Being run at the start of the Autumn schedule means it’s no surprise that around 90% of winners already had 3 or more runs that season. 70% had 4+ so that might help whittle down the field as would looking at horses with 2 or more wins this season which accounts for 75% of the winners this century and 9 of the last 10.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had won a 2 or more Group 1’s – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
I’ll re-iterate one more time that this is a top-tier race and as such it’s good to see that ALL of the winners this century already had a Group 1 to their name. In fact, 75% had at least 2 Group 1 wins and the 25% that didn’t were all 3yo’s who had 1 Group 1 and at least 1 Group 2 win to their names. So, if you’re over 3 and you only have one Group 1 to your name, you’re not adding another one here.
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