The Irish Champion Stakes is always a great race, and we often see the winner back out in October, either in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe or at Ascot’s Champions Day.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land one of the biggest flat races in the autumn schedule.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 3-years-old
- The winner will be 8/1 or shorter and respect favourites
- Preference goes to being drawn in the Top half of the field but isn’t essential
- Ideally holds an OR of 120 or higher and huge respect to those rated 125 or higher
- Should have run in the last 30 days, and ideally in a Group 1
- Course form is a big plus if it’s winning course form
- Runners having the first look here perform much better from the Top half of the draw
- Should have won at 10 furlongs
- Ideally had 3 or more runs this season and 2 or more wins
- Has won a Group 1 before now, preferably multiple
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 4yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
3-year-olds have the most wins in this race across both periods measured but they are not profitable to back blind.
The average winning OR of 3-year-olds is 123.3 which is the same for 4 and 5-year-olds, however 3-year-olds get 6lbs from their elders.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8/1 or shorter – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every winner this century, bar 25/1 winner Decorated Knight in 2017, has been priced 8/1 or shorter and around half of the winners were sent off as favourite.
You would show a profit blind in the last decade following just favourites but show a 16 pence loss this century, however roles are reversed if backing all runners sub 8/1 blind, with a profit made this century but a loss made in the last decade.
Super-sires Galileo and Doyen were both beaten in this race as favourite, which shows no horse is invincible and there is always depth to this contest.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 14/24 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/24 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
In the century band we’ve had one winner drawn slap bang in the middle so that’s why the total adds up to 24 and not 25.
There is a marginal bias towards higher drawn horses which is understandable given that Leopardstown can see congestion on the inside rail in the closing stages. That said, the two dual winners of this race, Dylan Thomas & Magical both won from a High and a Low draw so I’d show a preference to a high draw, but I wouldn’t rely on it.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
Given this a race of great prestige, it’s no surprise that even though most winners are 3-year-olds, that most winners will already hold an OR of 120 or higher.
There has appeared to be a slight dip in the absolute Top-Notchers landing this race, but moreso due to availability of such horses. There have been 17 runners this century holding an OR of 125 or higher, just 4 of those came this decade but 3 of those did win.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Placed – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
- About 10F – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- About 12F – 6/25 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 21 days or less – 8/25 (32%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 30 days or less – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 43+ days ago – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
As many winners won last time out as didn’t so there’s no real advantage to be taken from that and the majority of winners placed last time out, which also isn’t a great deal of help.
Every winner raced at about 10f or about 12f last time out, which may help reduce the potential candidates, especially with preference being given to those racing at about 10f last time out.
Following all runners who last ran 30 days ago or less in the last decade has been a profitable angle blind which may be something or a turning trend.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 8/10 (80%) & 3/4 (75%)
40% of winners had raced at Leopardstown before and around 80% of those had winning form here too. Good horses should be able to do it anywhere so I wouldn’t be against anything having their first look. On that though, 4 winners from 40 runners this century managed to successfully win at this track on their first look from the bottom half of the draw but 10 winners from 37 runners did so from the top half of the draw. The bottom half was a loss maker, but the top half was profitable to back blind for runners having their first look at the track.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 10f – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won at 10f – 22/23 (96%) & 9/9 (100%)
The winners of this race should have run at 10 furlongs before now and they should also be a winner at 10 furlongs too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 3 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners will have had 3 or more runs this season and really, they should have 2 or more wins this season too.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won a 2 or more Group 1’s – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
Only last year’s winner Economics has NOT already won a Group 1 before now, however he’d had issues and was sent off favourite for this race. Most winners had won more than one Group 1 before now.