The Irish Champion Stakes is a phenomenally strong race, and I’ve looked at the last 25 runnings with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land one of the biggest flat races in the Autumn schedule.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to 3-year-olds with a minimum OR of 118
- Respect the favourite but most likely will NOT have an SP bigger than 8/1
- Preference to a top half draw, especially if having their first run at this track
- Does NOT have to have won last time out
- Preferably last ran 30 days ago or less at about 10f or 12f last time out and in a Group 1
- Will have run and won at about 10 furlongs unless a 10f unraced Derby winner
- Has 3 or more runs this season and 2 or more wins this season
- Must be a previous Group 1 winner and preferably multiple times
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 4yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
3-year-olds have the most wins in this race across both periods although they are not profitable to back blind.
The average winning OR of 3-year-olds is 123 which is the same for 4 and 5-year-olds, however 3-year-olds get 6lbs from their elders which clearly makes all the difference at this stage of the season.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8/1 or shorter – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every winner this century, bar 25/1 winner Decorated Knight in 2017, has been priced 8/1 or shorter and around half of the winners were sent off as favourite.
You show a profit in both periods measured if just backing the favourite blind (£1.11 from the last 25 and £5.16 from the last 10).
Backing all runners with an SP of 8/1 or lower shows a profit of £7.74 from the last 25 but is a loss maker across the last 10 renewals with many more favourites landing the spoils.
Super-sires Galileo and Doyen were both beaten in this race as favourite, which shows no horse is invincible and there is always depth to this contest.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 14/24 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/24 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
In the last 25 years we’ve had one winner drawn slap bang in the middle so that’s why the total adds up to 24 and not 25.
There is a marginal bias towards higher drawn horses which is understandable given that Leopardstown can see congestion on the inside rail in the closing stages. In more recent years the bias appears stronger although more favourites have won too, so it’s more likely who is drawn where rather than an actual bias.
The two dual winners of this race, Dylan Thomas & Magical both won from a High and a Low draw so while I’d show a preference to a high draw, I wouldn’t rely on it.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
Given this a race of great prestige, it’s no surprise that even though most winners are 3-year-olds, that most winners will already hold an OR of 120 or higher.
There has appeared to be a slight dip in the absolute Top-Notchers landing this race, but moreso due to availability of such horses. There have been 17 runners this century holding an OR of 125 or higher, just 4 of those came this decade but 3 of those did win.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Placed – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
- About 10F – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- About 12F – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 21 days or less – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 30 days or less – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 43+ days ago – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
Around half of winners across both periods last ran in the Juddmonte or the King George which also leans in the numbers of days since their last race. Backing all runners who last ran within 30 days is profitable blind.
Given the standard expected to land this race, it’s slightly surprising more winners than not didn’t win last time out but it shows that a good horse can be forgiven and typically the class prevails in this contest with most winners coming from a Group 1 and all winners having raced at about 10 or 12f last time out
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 9/11 (82%) & 4/5 (80%)
While it’s close to a 50/50 split on winners having raced at Leopardstown before, most of those who had been here had won so that’s a box to be ticked for any horse with previous at this track.
Looking from the other side; 76 runners were having their first look and produced 13 winners. 4 of those winners came from 41 runners from the last 25 years managed to successfully win at this track on their first look from the bottom half of the draw with a -64% ROI. 9 winners from 35 runners did so from the top half of the draw which shows a 27% ROI.
So looking back to the potential draw bias, preference has to sit in the top half, especially for those having their first look here.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 10f – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won at 10f – 22/23 (96%) & 9/9 (100%)
The winners of this race should have run at 10 furlongs before now and they should also be a winner at 10 furlongs too. The only winner from the last 10 who wasn’t was Auguste Rodin who was a dual Derby winner the same season.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 0 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 3 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners will have had 3 or more runs this season and really, they should have 2 or more wins this season too.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won a 2 or more Group 1’s – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
Only last years’ winner Economic has NOT already won a Group 1 before now, however he’d had issues and was sent off favourite for this race. Most winners had won more than one Group 1 before now.
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