Another Classic and another race dominated by Aidan O’Brien which has seen some the best horses land this prize before making major names for themselves as stallions.
One thing is for sure, there are not bad winners of any derby, but especially the Irish Derby.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw isn’t completely essential, but you’d prefer to be drawn in the bottom 3 stalls
- Will be sent off 6/1 or shorter
- Will hold an OR of at least 111
- Will come from the Epsom Derby and expected to have been in the first 3
- Has exactly 3 runs this year
- No winner since 1997 had more than 3 runs that year
Focussed Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 10/25 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)
Low draws are beneficial in the Irish Derby but it’s not a profitable angle to follow blind without the help of 33/1 winner Sovereign. The last 5 winners came from stall 5 or lower.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Second favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- SP of 6/1 or shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites perform well in the Irish Derby but are very small loss makers. Second favourites also perform well but while they’re marginally profitable looking at the last 25 running’s, there loss makers blind from the last 10.
Remarkably, you would show a profit backing every runner with an SP of 6/1 or shorter blind. Not for impressive sums of money, but it is profitable.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 14/25 (56%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners with an OR of 111 or higher – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
I’ve mentioned that it’s a good horse that wins the Derby regardless and while that is true the bottom line needs to be drawn at 111 in terms of Official rating and you can expect the highest rated runner in the field to be worthy of that status.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at Epsom – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners aren’t profitable to back blind and with most winners coming from the English Derby there could only be one winner of that race. The last 5 winners came from Epsom so it’s a path well-trodden and needs to be respected.
PATHS FROM (Winners to runners this century, P&L and year of last winner)
- Epsom Derby – 20/90 (+£14.42 | 2025)
- Irish 2000 Guineas – 1/9 (+£2 | 2004)
- Orby Stakes – 1/10 (-£3 | 2013)
- Quens Vase – 1/8 -£5 | 2020)
- St James’s Palace Stakes – 1/3 (+£1.50 | 2010)
As touched on in the Last Time Out section, Epsom Derby runners are profitable to follow blind however it really is pushed to the positive due to 33/1 winner Sovereign. 8 of those winners won both races and 16 had placed Top 3.
FORM
- Has won at 1m2f or further – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 3 runs this season – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Santiago is the last horse to win the Irish Derby having run just once that season. Most winners have exactly 3 runs this year and none have more than 3 so while many will tick the boxes, it’s a profile that’s stood the test of time
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Lambourn (IRE)
- 2024 – Los Angeles (IRE)
- 2023 – Auguste Rodin (IRE)
- 2022 – Westover
- 2021 – Hurricane Lane (IRE)
- 2020 – Santiago (IRE)
- 2019 – Sovereign (IRE)
- 2018 – Latrobe (IRE)
- 2017 – Capri (IRE)
- 2016 – Harzand (IRE)
- 2015 – Jack Hobbs
- 2014 – Australia
- 2013 – Trading Leather (IRE)
- 2012 – Camelot
- 2011 – Treasure Beach
- 2010 – Cape Blanco (IRE)
- 2009 – Fame And Glory
- 2008 – Frozen Fire (GER)
- 2007 – Soldier Of Fortune (IRE)
- 2006 – Dylan Thomas (IRE)
- 2005 – Hurricane Run (IRE)
- 2004 – Grey Swallow (IRE)
- 2003 – Alamshar (IRE)
- 2002 – High Chaparral (IRE)
- 2001 – Galileo (IRE)
- 2000 – Sinndar (IRE)