This is a proper Grade 1 race, with some house-hold names amongst the previous winners and it’s also been a lead into Cheltenham Gold Cup winners thanks to Sizing John and Galopin Des Champs in recent years. The latter is also bidding to join Florida Pearl as a 4-time winner of this contest but unlike his predecessor, Galopin Des Champs is looking to land this for the fourth consecutive season.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century with a comparison to the last 10 in order to see if Galopin Des Champs can do this, or who might be his most likely threat.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7-9 or if a 10yo+ they will have won this race before
- It’s profitable to back second favourites blind
- Has an OR of 168 or higher but at least 160 or higher
- Will have last run between 24 and 47 days ago
- Preferably has 3 or more runs at Leopardstown
- Look to those with a 40% or higher strike rate at about 23-25 furlongs
- Expect to be a Grade 1 winner but preference for multiple Grade 1 winners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 6/26 (23%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 6/26 (23%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 10/26 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/26 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/26 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
- 12yo – 1/26 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
9-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century showing just shy of a 40% ROI. They hold the second highest strike rate with 7-year-olds outperforming them with a 35% strike rate but are very small loss makers to follow blind.
The same is true for the last decade with 9-year-olds being profitable to back blind but 7-year-olds holding the best strike rate.
All the winners who were aged 10 or older were previous race winners so only they should be given a winning chance for double-figure aged runners.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/26 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd favourites – 8/26 (31%) & 4/10 (40%)
While favourites have more wins than second favourites this century it’s the second rank who have more in the last decade. They are profitable to back blind across both periods measured but favourites are loss makers.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winner has an OR of 160 or higher – 17/26 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winner has an OR of 168 or higher – 9/26 (35%) & 6/10 (60%)
Grade 1 staying chases are probably the most desirable contests to land so it’s no surprise that most winners hold an OR of 160 or higher but that alone isn’t profitable to back blind. If we move the bar up to 168 or higher though it becomes profitable to small margins across both periods.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st last time out – 11/26 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Last ran between 24-47 days – 23/26 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Conflated winning at 18/1 is the reason why backing last time out winners makes money across both periods but it’s still a metric to note.
It’s also notable that most winners last ran between 24 and 47 days ago but most runners fall into that. In the last decade 7 runners have come here off breaks of 61 days or more and show a £12 profit if backing blind. This century, 18 horses fit that profile but it’s still produced just one winner bringing the profit all the way down to just £1.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 26/26 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 21/26 (81%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown 3 or more time – 20/26 (77%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every winner of this race had race at Leopardstown before now and most had been here 3 or more times.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 23-25 furlongs – 25/26 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at about 23-25 furlongs – 21/26 (81%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at about 23-25 furlongs – 16/26 (62%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON 40% or more of their runs at about 23-25 furlongs – 18/26 (69%) & 8/10 (80%)
Only Sizing John hadn’t already raced at about 23-25 furlongs before landing this and most winners were multiple winners at about that trip. Another positive measure is too look towards horses with a 40% or higher strike rate in races at about that trip.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 23/26 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won MORE than one Grade 1 – 17/26 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
I’ve already mentioned that these top-tier staying chases are the holy grail for owners and trainers so it’s no surprise to see that most winners of this race were already Grade 1 winners and most of those in turn were already multiple Grade 1 winners. Also helps with many names featured on the honours roll more than once.