With 11 winners this century priced at 20/1 to 150/1 this might just be a race where trends can help find a runner who the market ignores. I’ve looked at every renewal this century and with a comparison against the last 10 running’s (no race in 2020) to see if we can find the winner of this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be no older than 8 but preference goes to 7-year-olds
- Look to Irish or French Bred runners
- Respect runners sent off at 9/2 to 8/1
- Expected to hold an OR of no higher than 142
- Look to runners who come from Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Fairyhouse
- Probably has NOT already won over 3m2f or further
- NOT sporting headgear
Focussed Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
No winner of a double-digit age since 2013 and you’d find at least a third of the winners of this contest if looking at runners no older than 8.
6 winners from the last 10 runners were aged 6 or 7 and 7 winners from the last 11, so preference might just go to those of that age if you need to whittle the field down further than just 8 or younger.
7-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century and from the last 10 running’s so they might take the bonus trend tick if that’s needed too.
BREEDING
- Irish Bred Winners – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
- French Bred Winners – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
4 of the last 6 winners were French Bred, including the last three, and all of the last 10 winners were either Irish or French Bred.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 9/2 to 8/1 – 6/25 (24%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 20/1 or bigger – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites don’t make money to follow blind but recently many winners sat in the price window to 9/2 to 8/1. That shows just a 50p profit if backing blind this century but £14.50 from the last 10 running’s from 22 qualifiers so that worth noting.
There have consistently been many big priced winners of this contest and using 20/1 as the bottom line you’d find 40% or more winner of this contest. They are not profitable to follow blind though without the help of 150/1 winner Freewheelin Dylan, but a winner is a winner and he did win.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR of 142 or lower – 22/25 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners carrying 10-13 or lower – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners held an OR of 142 or lower and the 7 winners from the last 10 who tick that box were rated between 136 and 142 so that might be a better window to use now.
There will be some link between OR and weight carried, but you’d like to look for runners carrying 10-13 or lower however if they’re carrying more but rated 142 or less then they should not be ruled out.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran in Cheltenham – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran in Leopardstown or Fairyhouse – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
It’s hard to use finishing position last time out to provide any clue as to who will win this race, but it has been a good pointer to look at horses coming from Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Fairyhouse last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Fairyhouse – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had RUN 5+ times at Fairyhouse – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
Plenty of winners had run at Fairyhouse before now and the best strike rate comes when looking at horses who had been here 5 or more times when looking for experience at the course.
Around 30% of winners had NOT been to Fairyhouse before so it’s tricky to know where the preference lies, course form or not, but the suggestion would be you don’t need to have been here before.
FORM
- Had RUN at 3m 5f or further – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had WON at 3m 2f or further – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 3 to 5 runs this season – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners of this race had between 3 and 5 runs that season. More winners than not had not already raced over 3m5f or further and interestingly most winners had NOT won over 3m2f or further.
This looks a race to be taken by unexposed staying prospects.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who were sporting Cheekpieces – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners were NOT wearing headgear but it won’t make you money if you follow that blind.
Cheekpieces have been worn on 4 of the last 11 winners, (3 of the last 10) but while they may have looked like a turning trend, I’d have preference for runners without headgear.
TRAINERS (two or more this century and at least one in the last decade)
- Thomas Gibney
- Dermot McLoughlin
- Mouse Morris
- Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins is the only trainer in the list above who doesn’t show a profit backing blind, but he’s had twice as many runners as the other three listed. Other big name Irish trainers are possibly best to be ignored for this contest; Gordon Elliott has won this once from 74 runners and the likes of Henry De Bromhead and Gavin Cromwell haven’t landed this contest yet.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Haiti Couleurs (FR)
- 2024 – Intense Raffles (FR)
- 2023 – I Am Maximus (FR)
- 2022 – Lord Lariat (IRE)
- 2021 – Freewheelin Dylan (IRE)
- 2019 – Burrows Saint (FR)
- 2018 – General Principle (IRE)
- 2017 – Our Duke (IRE)
- 2016 – Rogue Angel (IRE)
- 2015 – Thunder And Roses (IRE)
- 2014 – Shutthefrontdoor (IRE)
- 2013 – Liberty Counsel (IRE)
- 2012 – Lion Na Bearnai (IRE)
- 2011 – Organisedconfusion (IRE)
- 2010 – Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
- 2009 – Niche Market (IRE)
- 2008 – Hear The Echo (IRE)
- 2007 – Butlers Cabin (FR)
- 2006 – Point Barrow (IRE)
- 2005 – Numbersixvalverde (IRE)
- 2004 – Granit DEstruval (FR)
- 2003 – Timbera (IRE)
- 2002 – The Bunny Boiler (IRE)
- 2001 – Davids Lad (IRE)
- 2000 – Commanche Court (IRE)