Ascot and York are both featured live on ITV Racing on Saturday, with the former hosting the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. GG editor Joe Napier has four best bets to follow, including one 25/1 shot.
2.05 York – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap
Always a fun contest with some of the biggest National Hunt riders getting involved, although with three of the six winners of the race being priced 14/1 or above, including 25/1 scorers in the last two renewals, it is easy to see why it’s tough to predict. Preference is for one of those 25/1 winners to repeat the trick in BIRKENHEAD, who is available at a double-figure price.
He and Jonatha England, who resumes the ride, blazed an unmatchable trail to win off this same mark of 67 in 2022. He has broadly operated at a very similar level ever since, but having fallen to a rating in the 50s earlier this year, he has hit form since returning to turf, with figures of 3121 on his last four starts.
Perhaps this seven-year-old resents all-weather surfaces in this relatively late stage of his sprinting career, but he is clearly back in good nick, and his win in this two years ago also came on his only ever run at York. If this track suits again, he may go close to regaining his crown.
2.25 Ascot – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3)
I was originally looking to take on the three-year-olds in this race, but none of the older attendees make enough appeal, even though the majority can be backed at big prices. Instead, it looks worth forgiving FRIENDLY SOUL her blowout in the Musidora Stakes, as the Gosdens may have very good reason to drop her back to 1m.
Although she is a half-sister to outstanding French stayer Call The Wind, only one of her other ten half-siblings excelled beyond 1m2f, with the highest-rated on RPRs, With You, being a Group 1-winning miler at her peak. Friendly Soul did win over 1m2f in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes (the Newmarket one not the Curragh one). However, she was well-placed by Kieran Shoemark that day, and her win in a 1m Kempton maiden on debut suggests she can cope with the pace of a race such as this.
Plenty of excuses can be made for her disappointing York effort, especially as her Newmarket form has worked out so exceptionally. She may well step back up in trip in time, but she is very possibly the most talented filly in this line-up, so is worth giving the vote to at 5/1 at the time of writing.
King George Tips – Romance Can Outpoint Rodin in Ascot Epic
The King George is the biggest race in this part of the flat season, with clues for so many other top contests throughout the rest of 2024. Joe Napier previews the contest below and gives his 1-2-3 verdict. Hukum won a dramatic running in 2023 when wearing down Westover. He has subsequently been retired. AUGUSTE…
Thu 25 Jul 20242.40 York – Sky Bet Dash Handicap
Trefor is an in-form favourite for Charlie Hills, but eight three-year-olds have attempted to win this in the last decade without success, including a beaten favourite in 2021 and a well-fancied second favourite in 2018 who finished last. Young sprinters begin to get less of a weight allowance against their elders, and this may be a point in the season where their development has not quite caught up to the benefit of their lighter burdens.
A decent swing is therefore taken on an outsider in the shape of RAGE OF BAMBY for Eve Johnson Houghton. The daughter of Saxon Warrior has only ever raced in one handicap as she has often been close to Listed or Group winning level without quite making a breakthrough. However, that handicap run came over 5f on the Knavesmire and saw her finish a 40/1 second off 1lb higher than this mark last August.
6f also suits though, as she won over the trip on her debut, and her last of 13 at Bath on return can be forgiven on the basis that she was also tailed off on her seasonal return last season. Despite 99 days off again since, she should strip fitter and a mark of 99 underestimates her best efforts.
3.00 Ascot – Moet & Chandon International Stakes
This race has attracted an unusually small number for its 2024 renewal. Looking at the recent past sees three of the last five winners having emerged from one of the three highest stalls, which speaks positively for NEW IMAGE, who is drawn in 17 of 18 here.
David O’Meara has enjoyed plenty of success of late, operating at a 22% strike rate over the last fortnight compared to his rolling average of 12% since 2020. Much of that comes from handicapping his horses perfectly and the selection should have a lot more up his sleeve based on his performances this term.
He has two handicap wins this year already, but his third of 17 at York last time out has worked out well and is his standout effort. He is only up 1lb for that result and will surely rate much higher than 89 in time if continuing his current progression.
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