One of the great racing weekends of the year kicks off on Friday, with Epsom hosting the 2024 edition of the Oaks. With five races on terrestrial TV to enjoy, Joe Napier picks out his four best bets on the card.
2.00 Epsom – Betfred British EBF Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race)
For all that New Charter is a massive standout on form given she was runner-up to a potentially high class filly on debut, every winner of the Woodcote in the last decade had already got off the mark before winning at Epsom. That is a big trends negative for her and Megalithic, so the top two in the market can be passed over, with the winning experience of TEEJ A preferred.
Karl Burke’s team have been operating at a 21% strike rate in the last fortnight, 50% higher than their five-year rolling average. Their daughter of Mehmas struck on his second start at Chester when well-drawn, but she still did so decisively after having to wait for room. Stall six produced the 2022 runner-up and the winner last year, so the draw is fine and she ran well enough on soft on debut too.
2.35 Epsom – Trustatrader Handicap
A competitive race with plenty of familiar names in contention. One of those more veteran types is BOPEDRO whose previous run at York was his best of the season so far and suggests he is trending in the right direction.
He finished last season particularly strongly, finishing third in the Cambridgeshire and beaten just a length, before a fourth in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day at Ascot, both off a mark of 102. That run was notably promising regarding this race, as it came on soft ground, which had previously seemed to inconvenience him.
While he may want it slightly quicker, he can clearly handle it, and his third last time out saw him finish easily the closest of those held up. Down another 1lb in the handicap to 97, 5lb lower than his placed efforts in bigger races last autumn, he is beginning to look very well-handicapped.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Punts – Tips for Epsom Oaks Day on Friday
Epsom is a unique track and so the chances of finding value winners can often be bountiful. That is why our value tipster Matty Sutcliffe has six selections for Friday at the Surrey track, with two big price fancies in the Oaks itself. Published: 11.55am, Wednesday, 29th May (Odds correct at time of publishing) 2:00…
Wed 29 May 20243.45 Epsom – Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap
Winners on their most recent starts dominate the market, but there is value to be had further down the betting and the weights. In particular, LORD MELBOURNE boasts a deeply intriguing profile on his debut here for Ralph Beckett, despite being officially 2lb out of the weights.
The four-year-old had been consistent for the Crisfords, eventually winning on his handicap debut after five attempts in maidens and novice events. That came on heavy at Pontefract over 1m2f, and while he disappointed since, that was back on good ground. The change of yards could spark some further improvement after a brief freshen up 5lb higher than that victory.
4.30pm – Betfred Oaks (Group 1)
A remarkable thread of dominance has emerged between Aidan O’Brien and the Gosdens in the Oaks, with every single one of the last ten renewals being shared solely between the two yards. Six have gone to O’Brien, with four of those having run in the 1,000 Guineas earlier in the season and ready preference is for YLANG YLANG as a result of that and numerous other factors.
As early as last September she looked to be crying out for middle distances, but still had the ability to win the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket on her final juvenile start. Her fifth on reappearance in the Guineas was also one in which she powered home from an inopportune position, once again re-emphasising the apparent need for a step up in trip, also supported by her breeding.
Two of O’Brien’s four Oaks winners to have emerged from the 1,000 Guineas had been beaten at Newmarket, and while all of those had then run in the Irish equivalent too, the gap between that race and Epsom this season would have made that unfeasible. Nevertheless, Ylang Ylang has been off for fewer than four weeks, and this will almost certainly have been her main target at the start of the season.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.