Week three of the Racing League goes to Chepstow for seven races of action. Matty Sutcliffe has five selections across the card for you to follow in.
5:30 Chepstow – Racing League 15 Handicap (For horses in the care of trainers registered to Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) Lady Flora 7/2 1pt WIN + Carolus Magnus 14/1 0.5pt WIN
The obvious starting point here would be Dutch Decoy, who’s officially ahead of the handicapper after his two lengths second in the Golden Mile Handicap last weekend, but the majority of the yard’s runner’s aren’t quite seeing out their races and he was well beaten in this class on his penultimate effort at Newmarket so for all he brings in the best recent form, he’s worth taking on at the fore of the market.
There’s two likely outcomes in how this race may unfold. Firstly, there isn’t a plethora of strong early pace forecast, with only LADY FLORA and Rainwater likely to attempt to lead the field, and Azahara Palace, Great Acclaim and Eagle Day sitting prominent so perhaps it’s best to focus on those prominent racers particularly given Chepstow can favour those on the front end, as the undulations make it tricky to come from rear unless you have a nimble, athletic sort proven to handle undulating conditions.
Secondly, the ones who are likely to sit in midfield/rear are arguably the classier sorts used to racing in stronger company, so if the ones to the fore go too hard in front, the likes of Dutch Decoy, Austrian Theory and Carolus Magnus could take advantage of the ‘weaker’ competition and pick them off.
Of those to the fore, while the three-year-old filly Lady Flora will have to improve on her overall form, but she could hardly have been any more impressive when making all to win by four lengths here last month and from the outside stall in eleven she’s birthed perfectly to track across to the stand side rail in an attempt to repeat that effort. Though she has a 7lbs rise to contend with, she’s a well bred sort hailing from a family that the yard know very well including Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park, so now that she’s got her head in front there’s every chance that she can back up that effort and continue to progress with a soft lead likely.
Regular followers will know that CAROLUS MAGNUS is one of my developing cliff horses, and I had put off backing him until last time out at Yarmouth in a racing league contest. He’s one of those who is too well handicapped to ignore again this time around, and he fared better than the eventual finishing position suggested last time behind a runaway winner. He was unsuited by the early slow tempo there and the cheek-pieces appeared to be of little use, but he travelled effortlessly throughout the contest and was given little racing room throughout. Once he was in the clear, he came home strongly and full of running suggesting that he’s worth another chance.
I might be clutching at straws here as I’ve been wanting to get a win out of him since his luckless finish in last year’s Cambridgeshire, but I think the nature of Chepstow could suit him down to a tee. Both of his wins have come on the undulating/galloping nature of Newmarket, and his other top RPR’s have come around galloping tracks such as Ascot, Doncaster and Salisbury, so Chepstow appears a perfect place for him to rediscover that spark.
Now dropped to a mark of 71, 14lbs below his three lengths 9th in last years Cambridgeshire, it would be folly to let him go unbacked here and Sam James is a particularly strong booking as he’s excellent at handling these quirky sorts. His draw in stall four makes things a tad tricky as although the stalls are in the centre, they often track across to the nearside particularly on quicker going but if the leaders go too quick from their higher draws (Azahara Palace also likely to track across from stall one), then there’s every chance he could travel strongly into the race and benefit from the pace collapse.
6:00 Chepstow – Racing League 16 Handicap (For horses in the care of trainers registered to Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80) – Lahab 12/1 1pt EW 4 places
LAHAB has been poorly placed throughout his career since leaving the Andrew Balding yard for Grant Tuer and Nick Bradley Racing, but there’s been a number of efforts to suggest his mark isn’t an issue and now he returns to the place of his sole career win, a three lengths 1st over C&D last August), he could be primed to strike off a dwindling mark.
He’s undoubtedly a quirky type, with a tendency to keen and hang right under pressure, thus Chester was never going to suit last time out. However, he clocked the second quickest final furlong there, only behind the winner, running on strongly after looking awkward on the turn having been caught wide throughout with little cover. That was a similar effort to what he posted in the Carlisle Bell, when poorly positioned throughout after breaking slowly and being detached four lengths in rear, but he did miraculously well to be beaten (clocked quickest finishing speed percentage) just five lengths after making good headway up the wrong part of the track and that effort suggested that if being able to put it together, he’s more than well handicapped to go in.
He settled better at Chester despite not handling the track, and the return to this galloping straight seven furlongs can help. I’m hoping they don’t hold him up as he’s looked to hate those tactics of late and perhaps a return to a more prominent role will allow him to find his own rhythm, even if keen, thus exuding less energy in the early part of the race and given he likely has the stamina for a mile, he’ll be able to get away with being a tad keen.
6:30 Chepstow – Racing League 17 Handicap (For horses in the care of trainers registered to Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85) – Muscika 13/2 1.5pt WIN
This race is littered with keen goers and slow starters. Not only is MUSCIKA one of a very few honest sorts in here, he’s also one of the very few pace angles and a repeat of his effort in a twenty-one runner field at York last time out would see him bang there at the finish.
The ten-year-old is long in the tooth now and winless since last November, but the visor was left off for his first three runs this season and he was ridden in rear on all three occasions, which tells you exactly the intent of those efforts. The visor was reapplied last time out and he bounced out to make all, only headed in the last few strides by a potentially progressive sort who posted a career best. Muscika was well beaten in that contest last season before going on to be beaten a neck next time out then winning two on the bounce, so he looks to have been primed for this time of year particularly with the lucrative prize money on offer from the Racing League.
He only went up a pound for that last effort and he remains 4lbs below his last winning mark, so now has to be the time to catch him with this galloping straight to suit.
7:00 Chepstow – tote On The Go At tote.co.uk Racing League 18 Handicap (Trainers Reg’ To Racing League) (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-90) – Glamorous Breeze 13/2 1pt EW 4 places
GLAMOROUS BREEZE started the season on a career high mark of 89 having won three last season and matching a career best RPR of 94 when beaten three lengths in strong listed company at Ascot, and despite a string of solid runs this season (only one race where she ran below official rating on RPR’s), she’s back down to a mark of 81 and now 4lbs below her last winning mark.
She was a huge eye-catcher at Sandown last time out when suffering a torrid passage in running, with Gina Mangan sat motionless for four and half furlongs out of the five when given no room. But, rather miraculously, she dropped back to sixth in the final half furlong before managing to gain three places in the matter of a few strides once in the clear, suggesting both that not only is she well handicapped off 81, but imminently ready to strike.
Alligator Alley has already come out and boosted that form, and the fact that she returns here to a C&D that she’s 2-2 from in handicaps rates her as a solid proposition. She’s a consistent sort who tends to give her running around this time out year, with her record in handicaps between July and September reading 221222221212431313 as opposed to 35030286812673373 outside of that timeframe. She’s a tactically versatile sort and her middle draw will allow Trevor Whelan to get her a nice position early on to see how the race will unfold.
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