The 2024 John Durkan Memorial Chase was one of the great modern races and is likely to be the starting point for a large quantity of top chasers once again. Dave Young has run through all of the main trends below to point us towards this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- 7-year-olds are the winning-most age, though 6-year-olds have the highest winning percentage (strike-rate)
- Favourites are profitable to back blind
- Ideally holds and OR of 167 and respect the highest rated runner
- The last 10 winners all last ran between 210 and 270 days ago
- Willie Mullins has dominated this race, but respect goes to his first string
- Has run and won at Punchestown but can win without a look if the favourite
- Has no more than 7 runs over hurdles and at least 3 chase wins
- Should already be a Grade 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
There has been no winner older than 9 this century and the bulk of the winners were aged 6 or 7 who also hold the bets strikes too (30% and 27% respectively). They also hold the highest place rates at almost 50% each, so it does look to be worth noticing that younger horses seem to have this race in their favour.
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 4 in the betting – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites have a consistent 60% strike rate in the last 10 year and in all running’s and backing those blind would have yielded £6.65 profit from 27 qualifiers. There have been 9 odds-on shots this century with 6 winners and that covers it’s cost if backing blind.
If you were to bet every runner priced between 13/8 and 9/4 regardless of their position in the market, you’d have shown a £7.51 profit from a £13 outlay. Only 1 winner from the last 7 renewals were in that bucket so this could be a turning trend.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 167 or more – 11/25 (46%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who held the TOP OR – 10/25 (40%) & 7/10 (70%)
The Official Rating analysis shows a significant change in recent years. There have been 11 winners with an OR of 167 or more and 9 of those came in the last decade. There have been 10 winners who held the highest OR in the field and 7 of those came in the last decade.
All this said, the market seems to know the story with a balance in strike rates of winning favourites and while 3 of the last 4 winners were not the favourite, a similar period from 2004 to 2006 then saw 6 of the next 7 favourites go on to win this race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 210 and 270 days ago – 10/25 (40%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran less than 40 days ago – 14/25 (42%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Ran in a Grade 1 – 13/25 (52%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Won last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 5/1 or shorter last time out – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at about 2m 4f – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran at about 2m – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran at about 3m – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
Another trend that upon analysis shows a significant change in recent years. ALL of the last 10 winners last ran between 210 and 270 days ago but they are also the only 10 who tick this box from this century. Previously, 14 of the 15 prior winners last ran inside 60 days with the other running 71 days before.
ALL of the last 10 winners competed in a Grade 1 last time out, another turning trend but given the time frame of their last run, it was more likely horses coming in fresh following their spring campaigns would have contested at a higher level rather than those who wanted to prep only having 1 option in the Down Royal Champion chase to tick that Grade 1 last time out box.
There are some consistencies with around half of winners being last time out winners, more winners being priced 5/1 or shorter last time out although there is a small shift in winners coming from about 3miles last time out rather than 2m 4f, but again that could be impacted by when the horses last ran.
TRAINER
- Trained by Willie Mullins – 10/25 (40%) & 8/10 (80%)
Might not sound very informative to say that Willie Mullins has a stranglehold on any race, either side of the Irish Seas but this is fast becoming a home game for him. 8 of the last 10 winners were trained in Closutton and this century you can add 2 more. One of those winners was Florida Pearl back in 2001 but he didn’t have a runner until 2007 after that and it took until 2013 for him to land another renewal.
Since and including then, he’s won 9 of the 12 renewals and only winner wasn’t not his first string. That was last years’ winner Fact To File who was half a point bigger than his stablemate Galopin Des Champs, but crucially, neither were favourite. Allaho won in 2021 at 7/2 like Fact To File, but he was the yards’ first string with Envoi Allen and Fakir D’Oudaries both shorter prices.
Backing all of Willie Mullins’ first strings shows a 21% ROI to SP this century climbing to 66% in the last decade. It’s loss maker across both period if you just back all Closutton runners.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Punchestown – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 16/21 (76%) & 7/9 (78%)
- Winner who ran at Punchestown Last Time Out – 7/25 (28%) & 7/10 (70%)
Punchestown being a major track in Ireland and home of their biggest spring festival means it’s no surprise that most winners of this race had been to the track before. Most of those who had been here had won here too and in recent years many horses came to this race straight from last season’s Punchestown Festival.
Fair to say that if you’ve been here you should have won here, but if you haven’t been here, you can win this, but 3 of those 4 winners were the favourite and the other was last years’ winner priced just 7/2.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at about 2m 4f – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Only Fastorslow in 2023 had NOT won at about 2m4f and most horses had won more than once at about 2m4f too.
CAREER FORM
- Had less than 8 runs over HURDLES – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had either 3 or 4 wins over FENCES – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
Fastorslow was the exception in the last trend analysed and he’s an exception here too being the only horse to win this with less than 3 chase wins to his name.
Most winners had 7 or fewer runs over hurdles and most winners has 3 or more chase wins.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
We’ve seen an uplift in the official rating that it takes to land this race but it’s no real surprise that most winners of this race has a previous Grade 1 win to their name.