The John Smith’s Cup was first run back in 1960 and is one of the premier flat handicaps run in the north. 18 runners are set to go to post and GG tipster Joe Napier has previewed the renewal.
Favourites
Only one three-year-old has won this since 2001, which is a pretty significant trend for Archivist to overcome. He had been frustrating but promising in four starts for Sir Michael Stoute before also finishing second on his debut for William Haggas. He has since won two from two, including on his handicap debut over 1m here, shaping like 1m2f would suit too, while the 5lb penalty he carries for that actually ensures he is 2lb well-in. His chances are clear.
See That Storm went on a superb winning run from July last year to the beginning of this season and has remained in form, twice finishing second since. His mark has continued rising though, but if there proves to be no handicap blot, he is still in contention.
Last-time-out course and distance winner Thunder Run is the top weight here, but revelled in the step up to this trip in May. He is up 4lb for only a head victory, but unlike last time, he has a very tough draw to contend with in stall 17.
Contenders
Fox Legacy is another with a brutal draw, being widest of all in stall 19, but he would appeal strongly on form. His win at Newmarket during Guineas weekend was impressive and he did best of those in his group in the Royal Hunt Cup. This step up in trip should suit too.
Hand Of God is similar, with his reappearance behind Fox Legacy easy to forgive. He then loomed large in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot, but failed to stay the 1m4f trip. If it had been 1m2f, he may well have gone close and he goes straight to the top of considerations as a result.
A half-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, Naqeeb has not reached those heights, but he is still talented, and finished three places ahead of Hand Of God at Ascot. That 1m4f trip maybe suits him better though, but he keeps his mark of 103 which keeps him well-handicapped.
Outsiders
Both Austrian Theory and Have Secret remain plausibly handicapped and would not be without an each-way chance once again. Romieu may be slightly less reliable, although there remain elements of his profile that suggest he has the ability for a race like this.
From a purely draw-based perspective, Auld Toon Loon and Qitaal could profit from stall 1 and 2 respectively, as those inside berths have provided three of the last four winners. The latter could well be one to race prominently and may not be the easiest to pass if doing so.
Verdict
If PJ McDonald can get Fox Legacy a decent position from stall 19 then Andrew Balding’s charge could well win again given his Newmarket display at the start of this season. However, that will take some overcoming and HAND OF GOD may be the answer instead. He travelled well and looked a serious threat over 1m4f at Royal Ascot before fading, but the drop back in trip should suit a horse who has plenty of ability. The three-year-old Archivist should be bang there, but his age group have underperformed in this race in recent decades while See that Storm and Qitaal both have factors to recommend them on.
- Hand Of God
- Archivist
- Fox Legacy
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