The Group 1 Juddmonte International has seen some memorable performances over its storied history. In order to find out who will join its illustrious roll call, Dave Young has gone through the key trends.
This race has always attracted some of the very best horses with the first running won by that year’s Derby winner and the runner up having his only career defeat there.
It’s now known as The Juddmonte International Stakes having been sponsored by Juddmonte Farms since 1989 and I’ve looked at every winner this century to see what it takes to land this Group 1.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 3-5 years old
- Most likely to be priced 3/1 or shorter
- Has an OR of 120 or more
- Will have run in a Group 1 last time out and will have placed at least. That race should have been at 10f or 12f
- Should have 3 or more runs this season and 2 or more win too
- Will have already won at least 1 Group 1 but probably 2 or more
AGE
- 3yo – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
The bulk of winners are aged 3-5 years old and this doesn’t particularly help with finding the winner.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 3/1 or shorter – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
A race that attracts the best horses should be easier to predict and the fact that around half of the winners were sent off as favourite just confirms that. In fact, 70% of the winners were priced 3/1 or shorter so the market is likely to be well informed and the biggest pointer to who takes this.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
All bar one running this century has been single-figure fields so I’m not sure the draw has a great influence really but it’s fairly consistent that top half drawn horses have done better than bottom half. Possibly a red herring.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
With over 80% of the winners rated 120 or higher it’s clear that the best of the best do run here. There’s 42% and 30% of winners holding an OR of 125+ in the last century and 10 years respectively so it’s probably relevant to why the market seems to hold the key.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Group 1 – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 10f or 12f – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 16/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 43 days or more – 9/24 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
You’d ideally want to have won last time out but you certainly should have placed and raced in a Group 1. It seems that most winners run at 10f or 12f last time out and most horses come here off a break of at least 22 days but more recently over 6 weeks has been the route of half the winners.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 5/6 (83%) & 2/3 (67%)
Having run at York isn’t necessary for this race but if they have run here, you’d like to have seen them win here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 10f – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at about 10f – 17/21 (71%) & 6/8 (75%)
Most of the runners should have raced at about 10-furlongs and those that have, around three quarters had won at about the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 21/24 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 12/24 (50%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Unbeaten this season – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 3 wins this season – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
We want a horse who has at least run twice this season but preferably 3 or more times. Preference does go to horses who have won 50% or more of their races this season and really they should have at least 2 wins at least this term.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
As you’d expect for a race of this calibre, 90% of the winners have already won a Group 1.
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