Known as The Juddmonte International Stakes having been sponsored by Juddmonte Farms since 1989, this prestigious Group 1 is littered with household names. I’ve looked at every winner this century, and compared to the last decade, to see what it takes to land this big prize.
KEY TRENDS
Focused Trends
- Will be aged 3 to 5-years-old and preference to 3-year-olds if pushed
- Most likely to be priced 3/1 or shorter and big respect to favourites
- Should have an OR of 121 or more
- Will have run in a Group 1 last time out and will have placed at least
- Should have run at 10 to 12 furlongs last time out
- Should have run and won at about 10 furlongs
- Should have 3 or more runs this season and 2 or more wins this season
- Will have already won a Group 1
AGE
- 3yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
The bulk of winners are aged 3 to 5-years-old but it’s only 3-year-olds that are profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade with a whopping £34.25 to £1 level stakes from the last 10 running’s alone. This sounds like a huge help, but it’s swiftly put into context given it results from a 50/1 winner from 2015 in Arabian Queen.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 3/1 or shorter – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
This is a genuine top-level Group 1 so it’s less surprising that favourites outperform market expectations this century and show a 20% ROI, both this century and in the last decade, if backing blind. Ultimately though, the winner is likely to be priced 3/1 or shorter, favourite or not.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 17/25 (68%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
There have been just two renewals that had more than 9 runners going to post, which suggests that the draw trends might just be irrelevant. In the last decade the split has been 50/50 and while 11 of the first 13 running’s this century went to top half drawn horses, 7 of those were favourites.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 121 or more – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
With 80% of the winners rated 121 or higher it’s clear that it takes a very good horse to land this race. It’s been profitable to a very small amount to back all runners blind with an OR of 121+ this century and showing about a £2 profit from the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Group 1 – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 10f to 12f – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 43 days or more – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out winners account for most winners of this race but it’s not profitable to back blind. You certainly would expect the horse to have at least placed last time out though and they should be coming from a Group 1 run between 10 and 12 furlongs.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 6/25 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 5/6 (83%) & 2/3 (67%)
Having run at York isn’t necessary for this race but if they have run here they should have won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 10f – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at about 10f – 18/22 (82%) & 7/9 (78%)
Most winners will have raced at about 10 furlongs and more than three-quarters of those had won at about 10 furlongs too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Unbeaten this season – 8/25 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 3 wins this season – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
The winner will have had 3 or more runs this season and should have 2 or more wins this season too. They don’t need to be unbeaten, but they should have won half or more of their races this season.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- More than ONE Group 1 – 16/22 (73%) & 5/9 (56%)
Around 90% of winners of this race had already won a Group 1 which is to be expected given the stature of this race. It’s preferable but not required to have won multiple Group 1’s.