There are very few Juddmonte Internationals that fail to deliver a proper racing spectacle and the potential clash between Ombudsman and Constitution River is set to stop the racing world as the former bids to become only the 4th horse to win this race twice and the first since 1996.
I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and compared to the last 10 to see what it takes to land this big prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 3 to 5 years old but this won’t whittle the field down
- Respect favourites and most likely to be sent off no bigger than 4/1
- No huge draw bias but preference to the highest trio of stalls
- MUST hold an OR of at least 121 but preferably 125 or higher
- Should have at least placed in a Group 1 last time out over 10-12f
- Expected to have run and won at about 12 furlongs
- Has 3 or more runs this season and probably has 2 or more wins
- MUST be a Group 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 12/25 (48%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
4-year-olds hold the most wins from the last 25 renewals and also the highest strike rate but they are not profitable to back blind. 3-year-olds are profitable blind across this same period but mostly thanks to a 50/1 winner.
In the last 10 renewals it’s 5-year-olds who have the best strike rate but no age is profitable to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 4/1 or shorter – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Given that this race attracts the best horses in training it’s far from surprising that favourites tend to outperform expectations and they’re profitable to back blind across the last 25 renewals.
In the last 10 renewals it’s been profitable to back favourites blind showing a 50% ROI and this also encompasses backing all runners sent off 4/1 or shorter, although the ROI if doing this drops to around 33%.
DRAW
- Drawn in the Inside 3 stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Drawn in the Outside 3 – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
There have been just two renewals that had more than 9 runners going to post but that doesn’t mean the draw is completely irrelevant given horses drawn in the highest trio of stalls outperform those drawn in the lowest trio of stalls.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 121 or more – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 125 or more – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
We know this race takes a proper horse to land the spoils and this is backed up by most winners holding an OR of at least 121.
There have been 4 winners of this race in the last 10 renewals who held an Official Rating of 125 or higher, and those 4 winners came from the last 5 renewals.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Group 1 – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 10f to 12f – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 43 days or more – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
It’s possibly a little surprising that there are many winners of this race who were beaten last time out, but still it’s more winner who came here following a win than didn’t.
The winner is expected to come from a Group 1 last time out, over 10-12 furlongs and most likely did NOT run in the last 6 weeks looks to be a turning trend.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at York – 6/25 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 5/6 (83%) & 2/3 (67%)
Course form will always be a positive if it reads well and while it’s not crucial to have been to this course before now, it is important for those who had been here for them to have won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 10f – 2/25 (88%) & 9/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at about 10f – 18/22 (82%) & 8/9 (89%)
This trip over 12.5 furlongs isn’t particularly niche and for the winner of this race, they most likely have run and won at about 12.5 furlongs before now. Almost a given for the stature of this race.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Unbeaten this season – 8/25 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2 wins this season – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 3 wins this season – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
Given this is a race run quite late in the season it’s not surprising that most winners should have run at least 3 times by now this season. Very few winners were unbeaten this season, but most had won at least half of the races.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- More than ONE Group 1 – 16/22 (73%) & 5/10 (50%)
It’s imperative now that the winner of this race is already a Group 1 winner and while it would be preferably to have won multiple Group 1’s that is not a requirement as much as used to be.
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