A decent Group 1 Sprint for Newmarket’s July Festival which has seen many winners come from Royal Ascot to taste success here. Is that a trend worth following? Well, I’ve looked at all 25 runnings this century to see if it is alongside a number of other factors.
KEY TRENDS
- 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds are the ones to focus on (15 of the last 16 winners)
- Preference goes to those drawn in the highest three stalls (6 of the last 9 winners)
- Look to the top 6 in the market and favourites perform to about expectation
- No top-rated winner of this race since 2016
- Probably ran at Ascot last time out but respect those saved for this from York
- Should have 4 or more runs at 6-furlongs
- Any Newmarket winning form is a bonus
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 4yo – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 5/25 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Both this century and in the last decade it has been profitable to back ALL 4-year-olds in this race. 3-year-olds have landed many renewals but they’re expensive to follow.
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 4/25 (16%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 7/25 (28%) & 6/10 (60%)
A bit of turning trend here with most winners coming from the highest three stalls in the last decade and it’s been profitable to back all those qualifiers blind. Being drawn in the lowest three stalls has been a big negative in recent years but has found winners this century, apart from the lowest drawn runner of all.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 6 in the market – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites are profitable to follow blind this century for a small profit and they draw level in the last decade. ALL winners from the last 10 came from the first 6 in the market which shows a £16.5 profit if you backed all runners blind. This century, the Top 6 are responsible for most winners but show a modest loss of 75p.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 6/16 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
Backing the highest rated runner alone in this race has made a profit this century with an ROI of 21% to SP alone. There hasn’t been a Top-Rated winner of this race since 2016 though so maybe we’re due one or the trends are turning on this one too.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran Ascot – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (60%)
Last time out winners are loss makers both this century and in the last decade. Most winners last ran at Ascot which combines into the number of days ago that they last ran too. There have been a couple of winners this century who last ran at York and one winner in the last decade. That’s profitable to follow this century but shows a 50p loss in the last decade.
FORM
- Previous Group 1 winner – 13/52 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 4 or more career runs at 6-furlongs – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Equal or better Strike Rate at 6 furlongs than not – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had RUN at Newmarket – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had WON at Newmarket – 11/18 (61%) & 5/7 (71%)
Only around half of the winners this century were previous Group 1 winners so that’s neither here nor there. Most winners had at least 4 runs at 6-furlongs before now and the majority of winners had a better win strike rate at 6-furlongs than outside that trip.
Nearly three-quarters of winners had run at either Newmarket track prior and it’s near two-thirds of those who had won here too. Course form would look desirable and especially winning course form, but it doesn’t need to be specifically at the July course.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Mill Stream (IRE)
- 2023 – Shaquille (GB)
- 2022 – Alcohol Free (IRE)
- 2021 – Starman (GB)
- 2020 – Oxted (GB)
- 2019 – Ten Sovereigns (IRE)
- 2018 – U S Navy Flag (USA)
- 2017 – Harry Angel (IRE)
- 2016 – Limato (IRE)
- 2015 – Muhaarar (GB)
- 2014 – Slade Power (IRE)
- 2013 – Lethal Force (IRE)
- 2012 – Mayson (GB)
- 2011 – Dream Ahead (USA)
- 2010 – Starspangledbanner (AUS)
- 2009 – Fleeting Spirit (IRE)
- 2008 – Marchand DOr (FR)
- 2007 – Sakhees Secret
- 2006 – Les Arcs (USA)
- 2005 – Pastoral Pursuits (GB)
- 2004 – Frizzante (GB)
- 2003 – Oasis Dream (GB)
- 2002 – Continent (GB)
- 2001 – Mozart (IRE)
- 2000 – Agnes World (USA)