The Group 1 Sprint feature at Newmarket’s July Festival has seen six of the last eight winners of this race as previous course winners. Six of the last eight last ran at Ascot so there seems to be plenty of patterns which might allude to the winner of this contest.
I’ve looked at the last 25 and last ten runnings to see if I can highlight what the top line trends are.
KEY TRENDS
- 3yos and 4yos have found 16 of the last 17 winners but 3yos are expensive blind and 4yos are profitable blind
- Preference to being drawn in the highest three stalls
- Probably from the Top 6 in the betting but not the favourite
- Will probably NOT be the highest rated runner in the field but has an OR of 112 or higher
- Last ran 16 to 30 days ago and likely comes from Ascot
- Ideally has run and won at Newmarket
- Not expected to already be a Group 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4yo – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Both this century and in the last decade it has been profitable to back ALL 4-year-olds in this race. 3-year-olds have landed more than a third of renewals but they’re costly to follow blind and you’d have lost more across both periods backing those blind than backing 7-year-olds or older even though you’d have found 9 winners and 4 winners respectively vs 0 winners.
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 4/25 (16%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 7/10 (70%)
Big turning trends this with 7 of the last 10 winners coming from the highest three stalls and they account for 7 of the 8 winners ticking that box in the last 25 years.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 6 in the market – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
This is typically a double-figure sized field and often more than 12 go to post so splitting the Top 6 in market as a marker shows most winners are found there however it’s a small number of those that are actually sent off as favourite who land this contest.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 6/17 (35%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Winners with an OR of 112 or higher – 15/17 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Just one highest rated runner has taken this in the last 10 years and that was 10 years ago back in 2016 with Limato. Still, considering the sprinting division is looked down on, it typically still takes a horse with an OR of at least 112 to land this race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran Ascot – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
There’s a concept that sprinters take it turns winning and with so much potential bias in draws it’s no surprise that most winners did NOT win last time out but 40% of the last 25 did which is probably notable although not a money maker.
Most winners last ran I the last 16-30 which is covered when looking at most winners coming from Ascot last time out.
FORM
- Previous Group 1 winner – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4 or more career runs at 6-furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Equal or better Strike Rate at 6 furlongs than not – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had RUN at Newmarket – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had WON at Newmarket – 12/19 (63%) & 6/7 (86%)
Being a previous Group 1 is not a requirement for this contest but having at least 4 career runs at 6 furlongs is. It’s also important to have at least an equal strike rate at 6 furlongs than compared to when not racing at 6 furlongs.
A big preference goes to previous course runner and of those you really want to have seen your horse win around here too.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – No Half Measures (GB)
- 2024 – Mill Stream (IRE)
- 2023 – Shaquille (GB)
- 2022 – Alcohol Free (IRE)
- 2021 – Starman (GB)
- 2020 – Oxted (GB)
- 2019 – Ten Sovereigns (IRE)
- 2018 – U S Navy Flag (USA)
- 2017 – Harry Angel (IRE)
- 2016 – Limato (IRE)
- 2015 – Muhaarar (GB)
- 2014 – Slade Power (IRE)
- 2013 – Lethal Force (IRE)
- 2012 – Mayson (GB)
- 2011 – Dream Ahead (USA)
- 2010 – Starspangledbanner (AUS)
- 2009 – Fleeting Spirit (IRE)
- 2008 – Marchand DOr (FR)
- 2007 – Sakhees Secret
- 2006 – Les Arcs (USA)
- 2005 – Pastoral Pursuits (GB)
- 2004 – Frizzante (GB)
- 2003 – Oasis Dream (GB)
- 2002 – Continent (GB)
- 2001 – Mozart (IRE)
- 2000 – Agnes World (USA)