The ‘Summer Jumps’ season has officially ended and the unofficial start of the National Hunt season is right around the corner, with the starting line coming at Chepstow’s Persian War meeting – for all you wouldn’t think so looking out my window in York with clear blue skies and basking in the sort of heat that half enticed me to write this piece in the nearby beer garden.
The majority of the big flat meetings have been and gone, with Champions Day, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Breeders’ Cup the remaining trio the flat aficionados are clinging on to before the wooly hats, wellies and trench coats take over. As a result, GG have set me the task of making ten predictions for the upcoming National Hunt season.
Now, this could be short and sweet with bullet pointed remarks such as:
- Willie Mullins wins it all
- The first big favourite of the opening jumps card on ITV gets beat and hundreds of “When’s the Lincoln start?” Tweets are plastered on the timeline (NAP)
- Sean Bowen to galvanise one from rear
- Shares in Cotton Wool brands soar as Nicky Henderson once again wraps up his stable stars
- Venetia Williams to have five weeks of pure domination around early December
- Followed by Sue Smith (and now along with Joel Parkinson) winning absolutely everything they send out in January/February
- The return of the red corner (Langer Dan has ulcers) versus the blue corner (he’s clearly being stopped for a Festival mark
- The British to win the Ultima
- The Irish to have the first ten home in the Grand National
- Ffos Las to be abandoned on account of Waterlogged round at least once (Next Best)
But where’s the fun in that? While some of the following predictions mightn’t be all that far away from the aforementioned realm of National Hunt certainties, the beauty of this sport is the natural unpredictability that not even The Pythia could foresee so without further ado, here is ten predictions that I expect the word ‘BINGO’ to be bellowed out in unison all across the land once the result is settled.
The New Lion To Remain Unbeaten
I don’t think this is the most unorthodox of suggestions to begin with, but I’ll certainly be cowering away from the Constitution Hill fan brigade on course. I had an underwhelming punting experience at the Cheltenham Festival by my standards last season, but the one shining light was the 25/1 ante-post selection on The New Lion for the Turners Novices’ Hu- wait the Neptune, oh it’s the Ballymore now, no, didn’t it change to the Gallaghers?, sorry the Jackson Five, ah, the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle after his convincing success in a Chepstow Novice on hurdles debut.
The son of Kayf Tara backed that up in good fashion at Newbury next time out before landing the Challow, with his season culminating in Cheltenham Festival success. The neighsayers will argue he beat two future stayers there, but he possesses absolutely everything required to make up into a Champion Hurdler regarding his high cruising speed, his turn of foot, his slick jumping and his gusty determination.
He is likely to start his campaign off in the Fighting Fifth and this is where we’ll encounter our first obstacle in the form of Constitution Hill. The former Supreme and Champion Hurdle winner had the world at his feet at one stage, but after multiple issue, a terribly underwhelming racecourse gallop and a bout of colic, his otherwise bulletproof armour began to show some chinks. The whole racing world were thrilled to see him land back to back graded contests when reappearing last season, however he fired a warning sign when long at the last in the International Hurdle and it appeared this cat-like specimen of a thoroughbred has used up all of nine lives when falling in the Champion Hurdle, before replicating that at Aintree.
It was sombre viewing when he crawled home at Punchestown, and while Nicky Henderson has previous of bringing back these former Champions to peak form, rejuvenating Constitution Hill appears a mammoth task.
I’d fancy The New Lion to make a winning reappearance at this stage, then we’ll likely see him take the typical British hurdling path to the Christmas Hurdle and if passing those two tests with aplomb, it may take a smart one to beat him in the latter stages of the season.
Dan Skelton to land the Grand Annual
I promise this won’t be a Skelton-centric column, but one of the angles I’ve loved following is the ‘Skelton Plot Job’. Dan Skelton has mastered the art of ‘targeting’ one at a certain race and his Unexpected Party was only just touched off by Jazzy Matty, who may have rightfully had a helping hand from above, in last year’s Grand Annual.
Unexpected Party cosily landed the 2024 edition despite being beaten a culminated one hundred and thirty six lengths in his four prior starts. The 8lbs relented by the handicapper and the drop in trip were the apparent reason for improvement, and lightning nearly struck twice last season when well punted into 11/2 favourite.
I don’t think the handicapper will fall for it a third time, but he is sure to have already loaded his next Grand Annual bullet. L’Eau Du Sud could fit the bill for all he’d need to drop 10lbs or so, and it would be no surprise to see Etalon rediscover his spark either who could be another piece of ammunition in the chamber. It mightn’t be either, but trainers are creatures of habit and once they’ve tasted success, they very rarely switch up their modus operandi so be sure to look out for the Skelton Grand Annual plot.
Paul Nicholls to become Britain’s most prolific jumps trainer
The inevitable prospect of Ditcheat domination has diminished in recent years, with Nicholls recently conceding it’s ‘impossible to beat’ his former understudy Dan Skelton in the trainers championship this season. Regardless, determination has always been Nicholls’ admirable asset and he has set himself the task of reaching 4,000 winners in the near future, passing Martin Pipe’s record of 3,930 in doing so.
A switch up in staff and buying stock has meant the yard has been in something of a transitional period, but with a number of younger horses coming through the ranks last season the yard has a strong squad to go the war with this term and while they may no longer be the force of old, I’d bank of them to go at least one better than last year’s this total of 99 winners and for Paul Nicholls to deservedly become the most prolific jumps trainer in Britain, a record that will be tough to topple.
Gordon Elliott For Irish Champion Trainer
Gordon Elliott has had a tough few years after a well documented suspension from racing right at the peak of his powers, which has naturally halted his progress. However, that prestigious Champion Trainer title still eludes him. He led the title right up until the penultimate day of the 2016/17 season prior to the inevitable Mr Mullins overhauling him late on, and the crown has stayed in Closutton ever since, a feat beginning in the 2008/2009 season.
In relation to the Chinese Zodiac, 2027 is the year of the GOAT so naturally if the stars align then the Mullins lantern will shine brightest, but Gordon Elliott will not lay down without a fight and Mullins did have 41 less winners last season than he did the year prior. Elliott’s numbers were also down, but there was a lot of deadwood in his yard last term and we saw with the likes of Wodhooh and Honesty Policy last season that there was plenty to look forward to in the younger, unexposed depths of Cullentra House and perhaps this will be the year of Elliott’s resurgence.
Gavin Cromwell Top Trainer at the Cheltenham Festival
I did mention the beer garden earlier but despite the latter two predictions I can assure you I’ve not migrated there since that sentence. Gavin Cromwell has made remarkable progress of late, particularly with the higher calibre of thoroughbred. Having notched up a career best of 62 winners in the Irish Jumps season in 2019-20, he failed to back that up in three subsequent years prior to 2023-24 when posting 72 winners, topped last year by his record of 85 winners and breaking the two million euro prize money bracket.
Though he only had two Cheltenham Festival winner last season, one of them was in the coveted Cheltenham Gold Cup with Inothewayurthinkin and a result of that magnitude will only attract new owners, with a ripple effect of a larger string with a higher quality of stock. He also had six seconds at the festival last season, and I’d expect now with a plethora of progressive younger talents alongside the already proven classy animals that Cromwell can step up another level this season and stake a strong challenge for the Cheltenham crown.
Britain To Have Three Of The First Four Home In The Gold Cup
The lack of staying chasing starts in Britain have meant Ireland have dominated the Gold Cup of late, winning nine of the last ten renewals with Native River being the last British trained chaser to land the contest in 2018.
Since 2018, only seven of the possible twenty eight horses to finish in the first four were trained in Britain, but last years’ Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase didn’t look the most strongest of renewals with a view to potential Gold Cup candidates, and if Inothewayurhthinkin can replicate his success in last year’s contest then the eventual outcome may already be sewn up.
A week is a long time in racing though let alone six months so we shouldn’t take that conclusion as gospel, and bar Galopin Des Champs, who will have to return better than ever to land a third Gold Cup, there isn’t a whole lot of Irish prospects who could topple last year’s pair. As a result, it may be time for the British to mount a challenge.
Ben Pauling alone could have two candidates in the form of The Jukebox Man and Handstands. The former is two from two over fences, latterly landing the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase in a comfortable manner prior to injury keeping him away for the year and the latter looked to have all the attributes to make up into a classy staying chaser last term having won over three miles and two and a half, prior to pulling up in the Mildmay at Aintree. He had excuses there given he was badly hampered at the 14th, and he can’t be entirely discounted at this stage if returning to that initial promise.
Lucinda Russell could be represented by her Ultima winner Myretown, who’s early seasonal aim will be the Coral Gold Cup. He draws many similarities to Corach Rambler in that respect so there’s every chance the Grand National may be the plan, but this talented son of Dylan Thomas could still yet be anything after his devastating Ultima win.
The King George has been mentioned for Arkle winner Jango Baie, who displayed stamina as his key attribute when gamely rallying to land the race having looked badly outpaced two out. He backed that up when again staying on strongly to Impaire Et Passe in the Manifesto at Aintree, suggesting a step up in trip will eke out further improvement.
The same form-line could see Gidleigh Park stake his claim in the staying chase division, who prior to his Manifesto second, comfortably dispatched of Mildmay winner Caldwell Potter. By Walk In The Park out of a Presenting mare, stamina should be his forte in time. The aforementioned Caldwell Potter has to be considered too in that respect, with the Mildmay often proving a strong path for Gold Cup success particularly given Inothewayurthinkin’s success in the 2024 renewal.
There’s a plethora of potential British staying chasers coming through the ranks, and this year may be the one to overhaul the dominating Irish contingent.
Saint Segal To Win One Of The ‘Paddy-Power/Gold Cup Handicap Chases’
Now it wouldn’t be a National Hunt column without the mention of at least one cliff horse, and the biggest of them all Saint Segal gets the pleasure. The Saint Des Saints gelding has broken punters’ hearts on many occasions, whether that be unseating when looking a nailed on winner or blowing his own head off in running and failing to have enough energy left in the finish.
However, he belatedly returned to the winners enclosure when finally being allowed to bowl along in front at Newbury in December and coming home a facile eleven length winner. He placed in three further events including the Scottish Champion Trophy and the Greatwood, before again posting a career best effort in April to land a Chepstow Class Two off top-weight. Despite still taking a keen grip, he had plenty left under the bonnet to cosily regain the lead after a mistake and become a runaway winner.
He’ll return this season on a career high mark of 144, but I’d still fancy him to have 10lbs in hand and if he’s improved further in the jumping department over the summer then he looks sure to be a potent force in these Premier Handicaps.
Rebecca Curtis To Fare Best Of The ‘Smaller Yards’ With Novice Chasers
Rebecca Curtis had her most successful season in terms of prize money since 2019-20 last season, with her flagship horse Haiti Couleurs remarkably landing both the National Hunt Cup and the Irish Grand National.
Having lacked owners and ‘star’ horses to take her to those heights of late, Haiti Couleurs’ success was a sign the ship may be turning back around in her favour and she had several promising hurdlers last season who are destined to make their mark over fences this term.
She’s acquired Willmount from Nicky Henderson, a former point to point winner who originally cost £340,000 at the sales for Neil Mulholland and his overall record read 1111 prior to pulling up when 9/4 for the 2023 Challow. He fell three out when going okay at Cheltenham in his penultimate run, and there was some promise to take out of his fifth at Kempton when weakening late under a keen hold.
The Blue Bresil gelding has long shaped like a chaser, and a mark of 129 could see him progress starkly through handicaps.
Unexposed Sageburg gelding Andy Amo has chasing aspirations this term and is yet to finish out of the first four in eight runs for the yard. He finished the season with a half a length second in a listed Fairyhouse Handicap Hurdle, and shapes as one with an engine that won’t be complimented by jumping until taking to the larger obstacles.
Newton Tornado is similar in that respect, though brings winning point to point experience to the table and with form figures of 322221 over hurdles, including bumping into the smart Diva Luna, this scopey son of Cokoriko can make his presence felt in Novice Chases over intermediate distances.
Ben Solo’s another point to point winner for the yard who can improve for fences, and the Newport based yard can play a seriously strong hand in this division.
The Brits To Migrate Towards to Irish Festivals
We’re all aware by now of the Irish domination across National Hunt racing as a whole, with Mullins’ continuing to successfully raid Cheltenham, Cromwell bringing more top talent across the water in the earlier parts of the season and even to a degree, the Irish in general taking run of the mill novices’ around tracks like Perth.
Whether it be the sourcing of young talent or differing training methods, the British ranks have fallen well below their Irish rivals particularly in the higher echelons of jump racing, so I wonder whether we’ll see more British yards seek prize money across the water while the Irish prepare their string for Cheltenham and Aintree?
Since Brexit, logistically it’s made things trickier to travel across the sea for a prize pot but yards such as Rebecca Curtis, Olly Murphy, Anthony Honeyball and Hobbs/White have successfully made their mark on Irish turf of late and not only from a sporting perspective would it be fantastic to see the Brits serve the Irish with a taste of their all-conquering medicine, financially it may prove a successful proposition.
Ben Pauling To Win More Graded Contests Than Any Other British Trainer
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have largely dominated the graded scene in Britain throughout the season in recent years, with Dan Skelton rapidly rising to their ilk – but the growing talent among the yard of the Cotswolds-based Ben Pauling could see a further shake up in the British training ranks towards the top table.
Ben Pauling only began training in 2013 and it wasn’t until the 2023-24 season that saw him break into the top ten of the National Hunt Trainers Championship. The yard’s first Grade One winner came with Barter’s Hill in the Challow at Newbury in 2015 with Willoughby Court grabbing another for the yard two years later in the then Neptune Novices’ Hurdle before the yard had their first Grade One seasonal double last term with Handstands taking the Scilly Isles and The Jukebox Man landing the Kauto Star.
Last season was Pauling’s most successful in terms of prize money, and I suspect this season we’ll see a plethora of talent stamp their authority in graded contests with more owners sending their prized thoroughbreds to the yard. The aforementioned Handstands and The Jukebox Man will be in pole position to claim further graded contests, last year’s Adonis winner Mambonumberfive will have lofty targets along with Diamond Boy mare Diva Luna who placed in the Mares’ Novice last season. I suspect the JP McManus owners Meetmybythesea can make up into a promising graded novice chaser, along with the imposing son of Ask, No Questions Asked, who was second in the Sidney Banks.
Inevitably we will experience the National Hunt cliches highlighted earlier on, but jump racing is defined by its mercurial moments. There are few better sights than a flock of elite equine athletes winging a flight at full stretch to warm the senses on those cold winter afternoons.
Yes, we might see Willie Mullins cop the lot once more, you may long for your Lincoln and you almost certainly will be conversing with the family mid January while simultaneously thinking ‘I should’ve gone to Ffos Las and cleared it out with a bucket myself’, but there is always that glimmer of hope that the narrative will change, the British will conquer once again, the underdog will topple the ingrained stalwarts, the long mapped out plot will prevail and above all else, Saint Segal will redeem the faith of National Hunt aficionados across the whole of the land.
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