The Kerry National provides jumps fans with an intriguing handicap puzzle on Wednesday at Listowel. GG tipster Joe Napier runs his eye over the runners for the 2025 edition and gives his verdict below.
Favourites
Willie Mullins has not tended to overcommit his yard to this race, although results have been excellent for Closutton since 2020 despite Cabaret Queen’s success that year being Mullins’ last victory. Runners-up in 2021, 2022 and 2024 pave the way for You Oughta Know to try and go one better.
A promising bumper performer, the seven-year-old is yet to scale any significant heights, but his chase career has also begun with potential, as he got off the mark by 23 lengths at the fourth attempt at Wexford in August. Odds-on defeats had preceded that eventual winning effort, but the step up to 3m looks to have plenty of potential to improve him and a handicap mark of 137 looks lenient enough for him to exploit.
The market suggests his biggest danger is the standing order Three Card Brag. Gordon Elliott’s charge has long threatened to be better than a mark of 145 and is again the choice of Jack Kennedy, but all three of his runs in handicap chases have left plenty to be desired. Potential is no longer lingering as it was in his novice days.
San Salvador shaped as if ready for a first run over 3m at the Galway Festival, but he was running in a weaker handicap than the Plate, and only over 1½f shorter. He will need to offer more from this mark, but is two from two at the track with his fitness all but assured having been racing on the flat since late spring.
Thecompanysergeant is set to be Gavin Cromwell’s only runner meanwhile. His second-placed finish in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival reads very well, but he has been disappointing since and visual evidence suggests he may not stay this trip.
Contenders
Slightly further down the market, both Anyway and Sea Music are unproven over 3m, but both have something to recommend them on. The former was another Cheltenham Festival runner-up, doing so in the novices’ handicap chase, and could thrive at this assignment, while the latter won a similar event at Punchestown, meaning he could still be ahead of the handicapper. His 3m runs have been disappointing though and he has unseated his rider three times in his last six starts.
There are potentially greater dangers still within the Elliott and Mullins ranks. Shecouldbeanything belied 33/1 odds to be third in the Galway Plate and runs off the same mark here. This may not be as strong a contest and the impression left from her last two starts is that 3m could be ideal.
Spanish Harlem is the likely second string for Mullins. It took until the 11th attempt to get off the mark over fences at Punchestown in June, but he has run well in big handicaps, albeit his mark of 139 is not an obviously defiable one on form.
Outsiders
British raider Light N Strike has not been given much leeway by the Irish handicapper, though his last run in the Summer Plate at Uttoxeter was solid and he is 1lb lower. Improvement for his new yard could see him in place contention.
Among the remaining home contingent, Pied Piper has amateur Josh Williamson taking off 7lb and may be worth forgiving a poor run in Grade 3 company at Galway having otherwise impressed to start his chase career. Numerous pieces of his prior form over hurdles in particular give him a chance under these terms.
Both Le Coq Hardi and Sandor Clegane are place contenders too. The former ran his best race over fences so far in his only handicap, and on his only start beyond 2m1f at Kilbbeggan in June. He was conceding plenty of weight to the winner that day and beat a more fancied stablemate, so could go well for Henry De Bromhead with 3m well worth a go on evidence so far. Sandor Clegane is much more exposed now, but has been given a chance by the handicapper off 143 having probably needed a comeback run at Galway in August. He was not beaten far in two Grade 1 novice chases in spring of 2024.
Verdict
With the 3m trip likely within his compass, YOU OUGHTA KNOW could be very well-handicapped for Willie Mullins and it was likely an easy decision for Paul Townend to side with him. He gets the verdict over the mare Shecouldbeanything after her Galway Plate third, while Gordon Elliott could have another in the places courtesy of top-weight Pied Piper, who is worth forgiving a no-show last time after his promising chasing start.
- You Oughta Know
- Shecouldbeanything
- Pied Piper
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