Known as the “King George” the race was formed as an amalgamation in 1951 and it’s regarded as Britain’s best open company Group 1 and is run at Ascot racecourse. We’ve seen some incredible names win this over the years and plenty have become household names again as sires.
I’ve looked at every running this century to see what it typically takes to land this race and I’ve also looked at the last 10 runnings to see if there’s anything that might be changing.
KEY TRENDS
- Should have run this season and should have placed last time out ideally in a Group 1 or at least a Group 2 and over 10 furlongs +
- Will have won at least a Group 2 but preferably have won a Group 1
- Should have an Official Rating of at least 118 but preferably 121+
- Most winners have already raced at Ascot and most had won but all at least placed here
- Should have raced at and won at 12 furlongs, the two exceptions both came from winning the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, had three Group 1 wins and were sent off as favourite
- No winner from stall 1 this century and only ONE from stall 2, there appears to be a bias in being drawn in the top half of the field
- 50% of favourites have won this century and in fields of 9 or more they hold a 64% strike rate
FOCUSED TRENDS:
AGE
- 3YO – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4YO – 13/24 (54%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5YO+ – 5/24 (21%) & 5/10 (50%)
Since the start of this century, the age of winners would suggest that you want to be looking for 3yo’s and 4yo’s, however, in the last 10 years we’ve seen the split of 3 & 4yo’s vs 5yos+ read as 50/50. Interestingly, five of the last six winners were aged 5+ and only two of those were favourites (both Enable). Is the tide turning in favour of the elders?
FAVOURITES
- First favourites – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- First and second favourites – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Favourites in a field of 8 or less – 6/13 (46%) & 2/6 (33%)
- Favourites in a field of 9 or more – 7/11 (64%) & 2/4 (50%)
In a race with such prestige, you’d expect the better horses to be in here and the market to have a good handle on this race so with 50% of the favourites winning this century and 70% coming from the front two, that seems to be true. Favourites in fields of nine or more vs fields of eight or less (11 renewals vs 13) have a better strike rate (64% vs 46%) and four of the six winners in smaller fields were odds-on vs just two odds-on winners in bigger fields, so worth bearing in mind at final decs.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 9/24 (37%) & 1/10 (10%)
The draw could be a little bit of a red herring; however, it does seem stacked in favour of those drawn in the top half, especially in the last 10 years. To really make a point on this you’d want to look at prices of the runners high and low to work out a performance vs expectation but, it is notable that there has been no winner from stall 1 this century and just one winner from stall 2.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 118 or more – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 121 or more – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
Much like our look at The Eclipse last month, you’d expect the prestige of this race to attract the best horses and from the OR of winners you can see we’re looking for the best of the best.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at 10 furlongs or more – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran at 12 furlongs – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Won last time out – 15/24 (62.5%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed last time out – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 50 days – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 40 days – 19/24 (79%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran in the last 30 days – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran in a Group 1 – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
The winner will have run at 10 or 12 furlongs last time out and most likely in a Group 1 but only one winner (last year) ran outside of a Group 2 or Group 1. Around two thirds of the winners had won last time out, but near 90% of them had placed so that’s almost a non-negotiable as is having run inside the last 50 days or less.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 10/14 (71%) & 5/7 (71%)
With more than half the winners this century and 70% of the last 10 having raced at Ascot, you’d prefer them to have had a look here on either course. If they’ve run here then you’d really like to them to have won, but must have at least placed.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over about 12 furlongs – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON over about 12 furlongs – 22/22 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners of this race will have run at about 12 furlongs and they will have won at the trip too. The two who hadn’t both came from the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last time out, both were sent off favourite and both had won 3 Group 1’s before, including winning last time out.
SEASON FORM
- Had raced this season – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had raced 1-2 times – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had raced 3 or more times – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a race – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
All bar one winner this century had raced this season, and the majority had won a race too. The more runs the better in terms of winners with a slightly higher percentage having run three or more times vs two or fewer times.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won a Group 2 or better – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
A top-class race, especially in open company, is expected to attract the top talent and with over 80% of the winners this century having already landed a Group 1 and ALL of the winners taking at least a Group 2, that top talent is confirmed. Of the four who hadn’t won a Group 1, two were trying that class for the first time here and 3 were coming from the Hardwicke Stakes. None were sent off bigger than 6/1 and one was sent off favourite, another was sent off second favourite so they’re not shock winners by any means.
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