Any race with the names Enable, Doyen and Galileo is clearly a cut above the rest, and I’ve looked at trends from this century to see if we can predict this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 4 or 5 but no older than 6
- Respect runners who are sent off at 9/4 or shorter
- Probably last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
- Will have finished Top 2 last time out
- Must be a 12-furlong winner before now
- Should have already won a Group 1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 4yo – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
4-year-olds have taken the most renewals this century but they, like all ages, show a loss if just them backing blind. In the last decade, 4 and 5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind despite 4-year-olds having the lowest strike rate at just 9%.
ODDS
- First favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 9/4 or shorter – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites show a 34p loss this century so you can see that you’re not going to be losing a fortune following those, but they’re also not going to make you money.
If you backed every runner with an SP of 9/4 or shorter, both this century and in the last decade, you would be showing a positive return on investment.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009 and including joint highest)
- Winners with the highest OR in the field – 5/20 (25%) & 3/14 (21%)
There have been 8 favourites who held the highest OR in the field and of those 3 won but you wouldn’t make money following them blind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Last ran 31-60 days ago – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Won last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Finished second last time out – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners will have last ran between 31 and 60 days ago and while more winners of this race won last time out, that isn’t a profitable system to follow. However, if you backed every runner who finished second last time out you would be showing £29 profit in the last decade alone for a 145% ROI.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had run but NOT won at Ascot – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
There has been an increase in the number of winners who had seen Ascot racecourse before. Preference would be for those who had won here too but it’s been profitable blind in the last decade to follow those who had run but not won here.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over 12-furlongs or further – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON over 12-furlongs or further – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners of this race will have run at 12-furlongs or further and of those they should have also won at 12-furlongs or further. While looking at those who had run at the distance may not whittle down the field, looking at those who had won at the distance would be helpful.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s been profitable to follow all horses who had previously won a Grade 1 in this race. It shows a 12% ROI this century and a 30% ROI in the last decade.