Any race with the names Enable, Doyen and Galileo is clearly a cut above the rest, and although Enable is the only multiple winner of that trio listed, Calandagan is on course to attempt back-to-back wins of his own but under a high standard of challenge on paper.
I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and the last 10 to see whether the trends look favourably on him or whether there is some value to be had elsewhere.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 4 or 5 with long-term preference to 4-year-olds
- Favourites perform to expectation but backing all runners 9/4 or shorter is profitable
- Respect runners who hold an OR 1lb lower than the highest rated runner(s)
- Must have placed Top 2 last time out
- Preferably has run and won at Ascot but not essential
- Must have won at 12 furlongs or further
- Should have won a Group 1 before now although can be just one
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 4yo – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
In the last decade, 4 and 5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind despite 4-year-olds having the lowest win-rate at 10% and it’s 3-year-olds who are the most expensive to follow.
Over the last 25 years, 4-year-olds have the most wins, but 3-year-olds actually have the highest win rate but no age is profitable to just back blind and 5-year-olds over the longer term drop down to just a 6% win-rate.
ODDS
- First favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 9/4 or shorter – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites across the last 25 renewals show less than a 2% ROI but at least they’re profitable blind. If you were to back all runners sent off 9/4 or shorter that makes a much better 21% ROI so it looks likely that the market will be a good indicator towards the winner of this race.
From the last 10 renewals favourites lose 5p but again looking at backing all runners with an SP of 9/4 or shorter is the best way to go with a 33% ROI.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009 and including joint highest)
- Winners with the highest OR in the field – 5/21 (24%) & 3/14 (21%)
- Winners with an OR 1lb lower than the highest rated – 0/0 (0%) & 3/4 (75%)
Just backing the highest rated runner in the field isn’t going to find you many winner and it will be a loss maker too.
Curiously, if you were to back runners who were 1lb lower than the highest rated runner(s) you’d have found 3 winners from 4 qualifiers in the last decade for a 90% ROI and those 3 are the only ones since 2009 too, although only 2 more horses qualify on this angle so it still shows a 27% ROI blind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Last ran 31-60 days ago – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Won last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Finished second last time out – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
Possibly a few red herrings if reading too much into last time out performances as certain trainers and certain horses have their own way of doing things but you would only want to consider horses who placed 1st or 2nd last time out, they should have run in the last 50 days ideally and most winners ran in Britain last time out too.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 10/15 (67%) & 6/8 (75%)
Ascot course form isn’t essential, but it is desirable and winning form is to be respected. Nothing major to be found here, other than course form does carry weight in this contest.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over 12-furlongs or further – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON over 12-furlongs or further – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
At this level there isn’t much space for question marks and the vast majority of winners of this race had already won at 12 furlongs or further.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Again, given the calibre of this contest, it’s rare that the winner would not have already won a Group 1 but it’s not a requirement for them to be a multiple Group 1 winner.
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.