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    King George VI Chase Trends - How To Find Crucial Boxing Day Winner

    David Young
    David Young
    December 11, 2025
    King George VI Chase Trends - How To Find Crucial Boxing Day Winner

    The King George is only surpassed by The Gold Cup in Cheltenham as the most prestigious chase in England with Kauto Star the winning most horse (5) and Desert Orchid just behind (4). 13 other horses have won this race more than once and it’s the highlight of the Festive period.

    I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this race.

    • MUST have an Official Rating of at least 160
    • MUST be a previous Grade 1 winner (preferably multiple) or a 6-year-old
    • Has run this season and inside the last 60 days
    • If British trained, has run at and preferably won at Kempton
    • Must have run at about 3 miles and should have won on multiple occasions
    • Has 5 or more chase wins and ideally has a 40% or better chase strike rate

    AGE

    • 6yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 7yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 8yo – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 10yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • 11yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)

    Most winners of this race come between the age of 7 and 9 with 8-year-olds well clear in the last decade and showing a 200% ROI.

    PRICE

    • Favourites – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • Top 3 in the betting – 18/25 (72%) & 5/10 (50%)

    Favourites are loss makers in the last decade but it has been profitable to back the 3rd and 4th in the market at SP blind for a 20% and 90% ROI respectively.

    This century, favourites show a 6p loss, so just about cover themselves. The 7th in the betting at SP has won this race 3 times this century showing a near 200% ROI.

    OFFICIAL RATING

    • Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 20/20 (100%) & 9/9 (100%)
    • Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 10/19 (53%) & 0/9 (0%)

    There are 5 winners this century who didn’t hold and OR at the time they ran in the King George who were Thistlecrack (16), Kicking King (04,05), Florida Pearl (01) and First Gold (00). I’d think two of those would certainly have been above 170 rated but essentially ALL winners of the King George are 160+ horses but ALL of the last 8 have not been higher than 169.

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Ran at Haydock – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • Ran in the last 60 Days – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Placed 1st – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)

    Looking at this century’s winner is slightly swayed by 5-time winner Kauto Star so that affects Haydock last time out which has declined in recent years. It has been a bit more consistent to see winners having placed 1st last time running at about 50% this century and 40% in the last decade. Winners having run inside the last 60 days sits at around 90%.

    COURSE FORM – (Removed the 2005 running from Sandown)

    • Winners who had RUN at Kempton – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
    • Winners who had WON at Kempton – 13/18 (72%) & 5/7 (71%)

    Most runners in a King George had been to the track before and only 2 of the 6 who hadn’t were British trained horses, Thistlecrack and Kauto Star. Most horses who had run here had also won here and every winner bar Cue Card who had more than one look at Kempton (10) had won here, so that looks quite relevant. Essentially, if a horse has been to Kempton more than once, they should have won here.

    DISTANCE FORM

    • Winners who had RUN at 23-25F – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
    • Winners who had WON at 23-25F – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)

    Distance form is important as you might expect in a race of this stature and while all winners have run at 23-25 furlongs it’s mostly those with 5 or more attempts who had won at between those trips too.

    CAREER CHASE FORM

    • Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 21/25 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
    • Had won 40% or more of races over fences – 22/25 (88%) & 6/10 (60%)

    Thistlecrack took this race as a Novice so he’s a slight anomaly when it comes to the number of chase wins recorded to date. Ideally you want a horse with at least 5 career chase wins and ideally they would have won 40% or more of their chase starts too.

    GRADED FORM

    • Had already won a Grade 1 – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
    • Had already won more than one Grade 1 – 18/25 (72%) & 5/10 (50%)

    This is a proper top tier Grade 1 and that’s backed up with all bar one winner having already landed a Grade 1 prior to this. The only exception was 6-year-old Clan Des Obeaux so younger horses probably can be forgiven.

    PAUL NICHOLLS’ RECORD

    It may be that Paul Nicholls isn’t represented by a fancied runner this year but it’s still worth remembering that he has trained the winner in 6 of the last 12 runnings and 11 of the last 19 winners with a big help from Kauto Star.