The flat season’s curtain is raised with its traditional opener, the Lincoln, being held at Doncaster on Saturday. It is a fiendish test for punter as one of the trickiest handicaps of the entire season, but our man Dave Young has delved through the trends with his cheat sheet to success for Saturday’s race.
As the saying goes, “you can prove anything with facts”, which is highly important to bear in mind when looking into trends for big race handicaps such as the Lincoln. They will have an influence on the market as much as they might influence your decision so a balance needs to be struck and they should ideally be used to supplement your case rather than being the sole focus.
That said, if you had taken note of the TOP 3 Trends below, you’d have found 7 of the last 10 winners and 8 of the last 10 if accepting 5 out of the TOP 6 trends.
I’ve listed several trends below and grouped by relevance so you can hopefully build your case using a few arguments. Let’s get stuck in!
TOP 3 Trends
- Has an OR (Official Rating) of 99+ (9/10 – 5/5)
- Has won at least 3 times before (9/10 – 5/5)
- Carries no more than 9-4 in weight (9/10 – 4/5)
All of the last 9 winners tick the box for having an OR of 99+ and all of the last 5 winners tick the box for having won at least 3 times before with 3 of those 5 having won exactly 3 times prior. Last year’s winner Migration carried 9 stone 9 pounds to halt the train of carrying 9 stone 4 or less but you’d have to go back to 2004 and Babodana to find the last other horse to do so.
NEXT 3 Trends
- Having their first run of the flat season (8/10 – 5/5)
- Aged 5 or younger (8/10 – 4/5) – Aged 4 years old (5/10 – 3/5)
- Had won over at least 1m before (8/10 – 4/5)
The last 6 winners were having their first run of the flat season (the other two raced in Meydan) and 6 of the last 7 winners were aged 5 or younger with 5 of those 6 winners aged just 4. It is worth noting the volume of 4 and 5-year-old’s in this race though and that if we extend the sample back a further 2 years then you’d have two more 6-year-old winners. 8 of the last 10 had won already at 1m or further and the two who didn’t were priced 12/1 and 9/2 so were more prominent in the betting while lacking that particular trend box tick.
MORE Trends to Consider
- Drawn in stall 10 or higher (7/10 – 4/5) – Places Under/Over (15 vs 25 – 8 vs 12)
- Double figure SP (7/10 – 2/5)
- Winning favourites (1/10 – 1/5) – Placed favourites (4/10 – 2/5)
- Had already raced at Doncaster (5/10 – 1/5)
- Won last time out (4/10 – 3/5)
- Raced at Newmarket last time out (3/10 – 2/5)
- Having first run for the yard (3/10 – 1/5)
For some time now a draw of 9 or above has been a prominent trend but in the last 10 running’s you can shift that up to being drawn in Stall 10 or higher with 7 of the last 10 and 4 of the last 5 winners fitting that profile. If you look at top 4 places using the same draw split, then over 60% in the last 10 years placed from the higher bracket and exactly 60% in the last 5 running’s. Some relevance, but not an absolute.
Double figure priced winners had been a high scorer with 7 of the last 10 but in recent renewals we’ve seen 3 of the last 5 priced 5/1 or shorter so it’s potentially a shift, but also likely variance so interpret that how you will. Favourites haven’t had the best of winning records but again in recent renewals you might not look at it as such a negative as we once might have, although it’s still not a positive. Similarly, the relevance of having raced at Doncaster has slipped from 50% of the last 10 winners down to just 20% from the last 5.
Last time out winners are 4 from the last 10 but up to 3 out of the last 5 so again with that increase in the shorter priced runners’ performances, maybe there’s a shift in play of the profile of a Lincoln winner? It’s a race that’s been run since the 1800s though so don’t let recency bias sway you too much.
3 of the last 10 and 2 of the last 5 winners raced at Newmarket last time out so that might help to whittle down your shortlist, but I also noticed 3 of the last 10 winners were making their stable debuts which is something slightly more niche, but I certainly wouldn’t look down on that finding.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.