For fans of the flat, the Lincoln is the ultimate countdown event, as it heralds the opening of a new season on the turf. A complete field of 22 are set to line up in the event and Joe Napier previews the key trends and runners, and gives his verdict.
The race was won off top-weight by Migration a year ago for David Menuisier and Benoit De La Seyette.
Key Trends
- Eight of the last ten winners have been aged four or five
- Only one horse this century has won over the age of six – Migration last season
- Eight of the last ten winners have carried a weight greater than 9st
- Only one favourite has been victorious since 2011
- Nine of the last 12 winners have gone off at double-figure prices, with Johan causing the biggest shock at 28/1 in 2022.
- Only one of the last eight winners has emerged from a single-figure stall
Key Runners
LIBERTY LANE
(Karl Burke/Clifford Lee)
Karl Burke has never won the Lincoln, but his four-year-old Liberty Lane has already claimed a big-field handicap at Doncaster during the St Leger meeting and remains open to progression after only seven starts. The son of Teofilo was a talking horse as early as his debut, in which he stormed home by five lengths on soft ground.
His only win since, in that aforementioned Doncaster handicap, was also on soft ground, meaning he is 2/2 on that type of surface and 0/5 on quicker. Given the conditions just two days from the race are heavy, there is very little chance of the ground quickening sufficiently to inconvenience him and his mark of 102 may well underestimate his best on slower ground.
AWAAL
(Simon & Ed Crisford/Harry Davies)
Only one horse in the last decade has won the Lincoln sporting any type of headgear, so it is a slight concern that connections reach for a first-time tongue tie with Awaal ahead of this race. However, the five-year-old has now run well in multiple significant handicaps, including when runner-up in this last year, and on a multitude of different ground conditions too.
His mark is now the same as that off which he finished second 12 months ago, which is an immediate positive, although ever since that fine effort on heavy, his three runs on soft ground or slower read 900, with the first of those a last of nine at Longchamp in Listed company. Despite his alluring handicap mark, there are distinctly mixed signals in terms of his chances.
CHAZZESMEE
(Fozzy Stack/Joey Sheridan)
The Irish-English Lincoln double has been very rarely sought in recent years, but could go the way of Chazzesmee for Fozzy Stack. It was only on Monday that his charge justified favouritism in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh, continuing his significant improvement since last January. Including his 5lb penalty for success earlier this week, he has now gone up 36lb in four runs.
His last two wins have come on heavy, sandwiching a runner-up effort at the Irish Derby meeting last July on good ground. One big worry with him is that he has never races fewer than 50 days after his previous run, and will suddenly be racing just five days post-victory, factoring in travel across the Irish Sea too. Maintaining his performance on heavy ground again could be tricky.
LATTAM
(Julie Camacho/Ryan Sexton)
No longer trained by William Haggas, Lattam is now with Julie Camacho ahead of his first tilt at this race. A son of Lope De Vega, he became a mainstay of class 2 handicaps last season, winning the Irish Lincolnshire and a ten-runner race at Newcastle. Thereafter, he found defying this mark of 95 difficult, although he was not without decent efforts.
He found himself too far back on all of his last three starts, including in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day, but stayed on in all three to be as close at the finish as ever before. Heavier conditions may therefore suit his closing tactics well as long as the change of home scenery has no negative effects.
The Field
Former winners Migration and Johan are both back for another crack at the title, the first-named as defending champion. However, his form fell off a cliff after winning this a year ago and he remains 4lb above his last winning mark. Johan did win at Glorious Goodwood last term, form which was franked by The Gatekeeper at Ascot, but finds himself on a career high mark here at the age of seven. Charlie Johnston’s charge, meanwhile, comes into this on his best form and is fully effective on this surface, though his Doncaster form is sketchy.
Thunder Ball is another runner coming into this off the back of a victory, and is unexposed on soft surfaces after that three-length win at Goodwood. Dutch Decoy and Revich could also be ones to look out for for each-way backers as consistent types at this level, while at longer odds, Mr Professor’s best form makes his outlandish odds seem far too big.
Verdict
Liberty Lane makes most appeal of the favourites after his win at Doncaster last season, but he is trading too short to be a decent betting proposition in a race such as this. THUNDER BALL arrives off a victory in a smaller field, but he won impressively and a 6lb rise, while it takes him to a career-high mark, can be overcome given he has been first past the post on both starts on soft. Mr Professor might also go well based on his win at Goodwood last September, as he had reasonable excuses the next twice.
- Thunder Ball
- Liberty Lane
- Mr Professor
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.