The flat is back when the Lincoln Handicap is being discussed, and this mile handicap is a race well worth winning.
I’ve looked at every winner this century and compared it with the last 10 running’s to work out what it takes to land this historic handicap. There were two renewals (2006 & 2007) that were held away from Doncaster so the relevant trends for those have been reduced to just reflect Doncaster runnings such as course form and draw. The race was cancelled in 2020.
KEY TRENDS
- Will NOT be older than 6 and most likely to be aged 4 or 5
- Look to those drawn in the lowest or highest 4 stalls with preference to the lowest 4
- Preferably carrying 9-0 to 9-4
- Holds an OR of 97 to 102
- Last ran 121 days ago or more
- Probably hasn’t run at Doncaster
- Probably doesn’t sport any headgear
Focussed Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 5yo – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
While 4-year-olds have the most wins and the highest strike-rate they are the biggest loss makers from 4-6-year-olds. 5-year-olds are slightly better still lose money blind whereas this century if you backed 6-year-olds blind you’d show a £1 profit from 112 qualifiers.
In the last decade it’s 5-year-olds that are profitable to back blind and show a £12.50 profit from 59 qualifiers and again the results are dominated by younger horses.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind this century however they’re a loss maker in the last decade. With any trend, you could argue it enhances the claims that the pattern will continue or you could argue we’re due a winning favourite.
DRAW
- Drawn in the LOWEST 4 stalls – 8/23 (35%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST 4 stalls – 3/23 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
This century, it’s shown a £39 profit if you were to back all runners who raced from the lowest 4 stalls in the 23 renewals run at Doncaster. You’d show a £17 loss for doing the same with the highest 4 stalls.
In the last decade, it’s the same picture with the lowest 4 stalls a profitable angle to follow blind although the highest 3 stalls is also profitable blind.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 9 stone to 9 stone 4lbs – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
There’s a turning trend that most winners now carry between 9-0 and 9-4. This century, 10 further winners are found if dropping the bottom end of the weight being carried to 8-8.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 97 to 102 – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
Similar to the weight trend, it seems that it’s turning in favour of higher rated runner, so in turn explains why they would shoulder more weight.
You’d expect the winner to hold an OR of at least 97 and the window sits between 97 and 102.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran 121 days ago or more – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
40% of winners across both periods won last time out and most winners had not run for at least 121 days which has been profitable to back blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had NOT RUN at Doncaster – 13/23 (57%) & 7/10 (70%)
More winners had NOT run at Doncaster before and those who hadn’t been to Doncaster hold a show a positive ROI if backing to Betfair SP across both periods and while they show a loss to industry SP this century, that too has been profitable blind in the last decade.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 10f or further – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at 8 furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this contest had won at 8 furlongs but a bit of a moving trends is the number of winners who had run at 10 furlongs or further before taking this contest.
RUNS IN THE LAST 365 DAYS
- Had 4 to 10 runs in the last 365 days – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
While most winners hadn’t been since for 121 days or more, most winners of this race had between 4 to 10 runs in the last 365 days. Quite a bit window but plenty have tried outside this and are best to be ignored.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners do not wear any kind of headgear but of the two who didn’t, one wore cheekpieces and the other wore a visor.