The Lockinge Stakes is the first Group 1 of the flat season for older horses, with the 1m contest restricted to those aged four and above. A field of nine have been declared for this year’s renewal, which looks set to be a cracker. GG writer Joe Napier previews the race and gives his verdict below.
Favourites
The two 2000 Guineas winners on either side of the Irish Sea are set to go to post, as Notable Speech and Rosallion both make their returns for 2025. The British handicapper cannot split them, with both reappearing with marks of 122, while both have two Group 1s apiece, the Godolphin horse winning the Newmarket Guineas and Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes, and Rosallion having won the Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The score is 1-1 between the two as well, with Notable Speech flying past Rosallion at Newmarket before running well below par when that rival won at Ascot. It has generally been useful to have had a run at some point in the calendar year, though Notable Speech has run significantly more recently than Rosallion when third at the Breeders’ Cup. Meanwhile, Richard Hannon’s charge has to overcome a 333-day break, which is significant.
Contenders
Recent form is the key to the chances of both Dancing Gemini and Tamfana. The former has a similar profile to 2024’s unfortunate runner-up Charyn, having been a decent three-year-old before taking a big jump forward at four. He has won the same two races as Charyn did in advance of this contest, easily drawing clear in the Listed Doncaster Mile, then proving too good in the Group 2 Sandown Mile too.
He is progressing at a serious rate and looks dangerous, but Tamfana could well be as well. One of two fillies in the field, David Menuisier’s charge won her first Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last term, having been unlucky in the 1000 Guineas, while she was just under two lengths behind Dancing Gemini on return. She is now 5lb better off at the weights though, and with fitness now on her side, she has a chance of overturning that running.
Outsiders
Fallen Angel is a Classic winner in her own right, winning the Irish 1000 Guineas in commanding fashion last season. She was then second and fourth in two further Group 1s, so it will not be for lack of ability that she does not contend. However, she seemingly needed her first run of 2024 when only eight in the 1000 Guineas, so she might not be one to back fresh here.
The remaining quarter are split between two four-year-olds and a pair of older runners. Taking the former first, Persica is a second runner for Hannon and an improver, claiming Group 3 honours in good style at Newmarket last time. Nevertheless, this is a drop back to 1m for the first time in over a year and this requires significantly more, while Lead Artist has two Group 3s and has generally mixed it in better company than Persica. He was very disappointing on return in the Sandown Mile, but his profile suggests he can be forgiven that and he is not without a chance for a yard who have won two of the last four runnings.
The older duo are Checkandchallenge and Prague. The former ran well when second to Dancing Gemini at Doncaster, but was well held by the winner and is the lowest-rated by quite some way. Prague ended last season on a low note, but had progressed prior to that to win at Group 2 level, while he also won easily on his debut last term. The issue may be the ground, with good-to-soft or slower probably ideal.
Lockinge Stakes Predictions
This is a really interesting Group 1. Notable Speech is preferred to Rosallion of the Guineas winners, with the latter’s 333-day break since racing a concern for all that he may improve past Notable Speech in the near future. Both are opposed with the recent form runners though in TAMFANA and Dancing Gemini, with the former shading the verdict. The selection was second to the latter in the Group 2 Sandown Mile last time, but she was ceding race fitness to that rival and now gets a 5lb swing at the weights too. Dancing Gemini is second choice, with Lead Artist the most intriguing of the remainder.
- Tamfana
- Dancing Gemini
- Notable Speech
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