After York’s Dante Festival concludes, the week’s big race comes to the fore on Saturday in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Dave Young has run the trends to find the likeliest winner of the race below.
The Lockinge Stakes is one of the greatest mile races out there, and with Frankel and Baaeed on the recent honours roll I think that’s clear in abundance. It’s a race where the winners have been well found in the market so let’s take a look at what the last 10 runnings can tell us about which horse we should side with.
10-Year Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won at 1m
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a Group race
- 8 of the last 10 winners were 4yo’s
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off 100/30 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners were the highest or equal highest rated runner
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 8+ career runs (the other two had 7 & 6 but both 6 wins)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won three or more Group races
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran and placed in the QEII at Ascot last season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 121+
- Only 4 winners had run at Newbury before, with three of those having won there
Verdict
A blend of trends here draw us towards the head of the market with both BIG ROCK and Inspiral having obvious claims, but it is the former who comes out ahead and might just end up favourite for this by the time post time comes around.
He’s 4lbs clear of Inspiral after weight adjusted ratings and he also ticks the box as a four-year-old which Inspiral doesn’t. The huge form concern might just be that the last time these pair clashed came in the Prix Jacques Le Marois where Inspiral was giving 3lbs to Big Rock and is now 6lbs better off. She beat him by 1 and ¼ lengths and did so in good style, but he was competing as a 3yo vs a 4yo.
The trends tell us that the 4yo’s come into their own this season and he finished last term with a routing in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, which has been a race that provided seven of the last 10 winners who had at least placed in that race if they ran.
Baaeed and Olympic Glory both won the QEII with an RPR of 127 before each won the Lockinge in ready fashion, and Big Rock achieved an RPR of 128. In fact, Olympic Glory was also second in the Prix Jacques Le Marois when racing as a 3yo. Now Palace Pier did the double from Deauville to Newbury which Inspiral is attempting herself, but that was as a 3yo turning four so while Inspiral clearly warrants respect in the market, I do think that Big Rock might just be a Lockinge winner in waiting. So, with eight of the last 10 winners being the highest-rated, and eight of the last 10 winners being 4yos, I simply can’t get away from him adding his name to this illustrious list of winners and I think we could see a pretty special season from him.
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