Frankel, Hawk Wing and Baaeed are on the honours roll for this contest which shows the reality of just how good some of these winners have been and hopefully will be going forward.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century (25) and compared to the last ten to look at what’s been proven over time to be required and what might be changing.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will most likely be aged 4 or 6
- No monetary stall bias but preference to being drawn lower than higher
- Favourites are profitable to back blind so should be respected
- MUST hold an OR of 113 or higher and preferably 117 or higher
- Probably did NOT win last time out
- Course form is not essential but if has run here is expected to have won here too
- MUST have won at a mile before now but not expected to have won at further
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
4-year-olds hold the best strike-rate this century with 14% compared to 6% for 5-year-olds and 8% for 6-year-olds. They also show the “best” ROI but it’s in inverted comma’s are there is no profitable age to back blind this century.
A similar picture is painted across the last 10 renewals with 4-year-olds showing the best strike-rate followed by 6-year-olds but it’s 6-year-olds who do the best blind, they cover themselves showing a £0 level stake profit/loss.
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
Stalls for this contest would likely be a bit of red herring with the lower stalls looking preferable however they show around the same £1 level stake loss this century. Field size might also influence this, but probably being drawn low would be preferable.
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- SP of 4/1 or shorter – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites make money across both periods and also this century backing all runners sent off with an SP of 4/1 or shorter makes a few quid, but a small loss from the last 10 running’s.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 117 or higher – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 113 or higher – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with the highest OR in the race – 14/25 (56%) & 5/10 (50%)
There are 3 winners this century who didn’t hold an OR but you could assume that 2 of the 3 would have held at least 117 so they’re included in these figures.
ALL winners held an OR of at least 115 and the bar of 117 would find 70% or more of winners across both periods.
It’s not always the highest rated runner who wins this race though, with the holder of that title winning around 50% of renewals and loss makers to follow blind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran in the last 60 days – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran at Newmarket, Sandown or Ascot– 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
There aren’t too many winner who won last time out and as expected, that’s a loss maker to follow blind.
More recent winner ran in the last 60 days compared to winners of this race of old so that looks to be a turning trend.
Most winners last ran at Newmarket Sandown or Ascot but that’s not profitable to follow blind. Of those who didn’t run at those tracks most last ran internationally so it might help whittle down the field, even just by a couple.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newbury – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at Newbury – 6/8 (75%) & 2/3 (67%)
The last 7 winners of this contest were having their first run at Newbury so course form clearly isn’t essential although those who have been here are expected to have won here too.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races – 12/25 (48%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had won at a mile – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won over further than a mile – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
Most winner had not won half or more of their career races but all bar two winners this century had won over a mile before now.
Only 20% of winners across both periods had won at beyond a mile.
GROUP FORM
- Winners who had won a Group 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race were previous Group 1 winners although 5 of the 8 winners without that box ticked hadn’t even won a Group 2 either (including the last 2 winners)
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Lead Artist (GB)
- 2024 – Audience (GB)
- 2023 – Modern Games (IRE)
- 2022 – Baaeed (GB)
- 2021 – Palace Pier (GB)
- 2019 – Mustashry (GB)
- 2018 – Rhododendron (IRE)
- 2017 – Ribchester (IRE)
- 2016 – Belardo (IRE)
- 2015 – Night Of Thunder (IRE)
- 2014 – Olympic Glory (IRE)
- 2013 – Farhh (GB)
- 2012 – Frankel (GB)
- 2011 – Canford Cliffs (IRE)
- 2010 – Paco Boy (IRE)
- 2009 – Virtual (GB)
- 2008 – Creachadoir (IRE)
- 2007 – Red Evie (IRE)
- 2006 – Peeress (GB)
- 2005 – Rakti (GB)
- 2004 – Russian Rhythm (USA)
- 2003 – Hawk Wing (USA)
- 2002 – Keltos (FR)
- 2001 – Medicean (GB)
- 2000 – Aljabr (USA)