Any Group 1 is worth noting but when the likes of Frankel, Hawk Wing and Baaeed are on the honours roll it shows the reality of just how good some of these winners have been.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century of the Lockinge Stakes and compared to the last 10 (no running in 2020) to see if we can find the most likely winner this year.
KEY TRENDS
- Respect favourites (showing over a 50% ROI this century to SP alone)
- MUST have an OR of 113+ but preferable 121+
- Respect the highest rated runner in the field
- Probably didn’t win last time out
- Doesn’t need course form but should have won if has run here
- Should have their furthest career win at one mile or is unexposed at the trip
- Preference goes to previous Group 1 winners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 5yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
Age isn’t going to help find the winner in this race although 4-year-olds have the most winners and the highest strike rate. That said, they are the biggest loss makers to back blind.
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
Stalls can be a bit of red herring as this century you would have found half as many winners if you just backed runners from the highest three stalls, but if you backed the lowest three stalls you’d have lost just as much money to a £1 level stake (around £45 this century).
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 4/1 or shorter – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites are money makers both this century and in the last 10 runnings with a 58% strike rate across both periods when you consider joint and co favourites. They show a 55% ROI this century and 68% in the last 10, just from backing blind to SP.
You could also make money backing ALL runners with an SP of 4/1 or shorter, but it’s for small profits so you’d probably say that the market will sort itself out and get’s it right more often than it’s expected to.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 121 or higher – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners with an OR of 113 or higher – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Three winners didn’t hold an OR on BHA records going into this race but loosely working it out you’d say that only one or two of those would have held the highest OR in the field, but those two would have been 121+
All winners held an OR of at least 113 and it would have proved profitable blind across both periods if you backed the highest rated runners in each renewal.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran in the last 60 days – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Last ran at Newmarket, Sandown or Ascot – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners will are loss makers blind and more winners of this race were beaten last time out, but again it’s not profitable to back that alone.
With options in Dubai, France and even Sandown’s bet365 Mile, some horses may have run in the last 60 days. While winners earlier this century would typically be having their first run of the season, in the last 10 runnings more winners had run than not.
You’d find most winners if you looked to runners from Ascot, Newmarket and Sandown last time out but again it wouldn’t make money just to follow this alone, in fact you’d lose a lot.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newbury – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Newbury – 6/8 (75%) & 3/4 (75%)
Course form isn’t essential here although horses who have been here before should have won or at least run very well.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won at a mile – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won over further than a mile – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
Over the long term it doesn’t seem to matter how prolific your strike rate has been with just as many winners having won half their races or more as those who hadn’t won half their races or more.
Being a mile winner before now is essential although the exceptions had either no run at the trip or just two. Most winners of this race had NOT won over further than a mile.
GROUP FORM
- Winners who had won a Group 1 – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race were previous Group 1 winners although four of the seven winners without that box ticked hadn’t even won a Group 2 either.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Audience (GB)
- 2023 – Modern Games (IRE)
- 2022 – Baaeed (GB)
- 2021 – Palace Pier (GB)
- 2019 – Mustashry (GB)
- 2018 – Rhododendron (IRE)
- 2017 – Ribchester (IRE)
- 2016 – Belardo (IRE)
- 2015 – Night Of Thunder (IRE)
- 2014 – Olympic Glory (IRE)
- 2013 – Farhh (GB)
- 2012 – Frankel (GB)
- 2011 – Canford Cliffs (IRE)
- 2010 – Paco Boy (IRE)
- 2009 – Virtual (GB)
- 2008 – Creachadoir (IRE)
- 2007 – Red Evie (IRE)
- 2006 – Peeress (GB)
- 2005 – Rakti (GB)
- 2004 – Russian Rhythm (USA)
- 2003 – Hawk Wing (USA)
- 2002 – Keltos (FR)
- 2001 – Medicean (GB)
- 2000 – Aljabr (USA)
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