The event is named after the Long Walk, an avenue of trees in Windsor Great Park and it was given Grade 1 status in 1990. This century, five winners have gone on to win the Stayers’ Hurdle in the same season:
Baracouda (01/02), My Way De Solzen (05/06), Big Buck’s (09/10, 10/11 and 11/12), Thistlecrack (15/16) and Paisley Park (18/19).
I’ve looked at trends from this century and compared to the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this pre-Christmas feature race.
KEY TRENDS
- ALL winners this century have come from the Top 5 in the market
- Should have an OR of 151 or higher
- Respect the 2nd and 3rd highest rated runner
- Likely has run this season but probably did NOT win last time out
- Probably has run at Ascot before and preferable to have winning form here too
- MUST have 3 wins over hurdles and preferably 4 or more
- Respect runners with 6 or 7 runs over hurdles and a 50% or higher strike rate
- Previous Grade 1 winner unless having 7 or fewer runs over hurdles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
10-year-olds are the only profitable age to back blind this century and it’s 6-year-olds who operate at the lowest strike rate and show the biggest loss blind.
In the last decade, it’s 5-year-olds and 10-year-olds who are the lowest loss makers and it’s 7-year-olds who are most costly to follow blind. That said, the majority of winners were aged between 6 and 8-years-old suggesting there is no real bias or angle simply by looking at age.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Second Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 20/24 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 5 in the betting – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
All winners this century have come from the Top 5 in the betting and is profitable to back blind showing around a 2% ROI. Hardly ground-breaking stuff, but there have been 64 runners outside the Top 5 in the market with no wins between them.
Both favourites and second favourites are NOT profitable to back blind this century so while they account for most winners, you’d make more money just backing the third and fourth in the market at SP.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 151 or more – 20/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
With Baracouda and Big Bucks sharing 7 renewals this century they do bring bigger numbers to the table. Class can prevail but it’s been a competitive race for many years now and you’d just be looking for a runner with an OR of 151+
In the last decade, 3 winners held the highest OR in the field but show a -23% ROI to SP. If you were to back the second and third ranked highest runners in each renewal you’d have also found 3 winners but it’s produced a 130% ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Newbury – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 38 Days – 23/25 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)
- NONE of the last 6 winners won last time out
13 winners this century came from Newbury but it’s a loss maker as most runners come from there. Only two winners hadn’t run this season, Champ in 2021 and last years’ winner Crambo. Could suggest that the winner will have run this season or begin with the letter “C”.
A bit of a turning trend is that none of the last 6 winners won last time out but the prior 4 all did.
COURSE FORM (04,05,09,10,22 renewals removed as NOT run at Ascot)
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 14/20 (70%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 8/14 (57%) & 5/7 (71%)
Plenty of rearranged renewals of this but of the 20 renewals this century held at Ascot it’s true that 70% of winners had been here before. It’s around the same percentage of those who had been here that had also won here too in the last decade. Course form looks important.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 3M – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 3M – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Distance form is important here and it’s only been Punchestowns who has won this having not run over a trip of about 3 miles. Since 2009, every winner has raced at about 3 miles and only 2 hadn’t won at about that trip too.
CAREER HURDLE FORM
- Had 10 or more RUNS over hurdles – 17/25 (68%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 4 or more WINS over hurdles – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- ALL winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
5 of the last 10 winners had just 6 or 7 runs over hurdles which is a profitable angle to back blind showing a 67% ROI to SP. All of those had won at least half of those hurdle races and brings the qualifiers down to increase the ROI to over 100% to SP alone.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had already won at least a Grade 2 – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s preferable to have already won a Grade 1 but the last 5 who hadn’t had no Grade 2 wins either. So, Grade 1 form is preferable but not essential and the last 15 winners had won at least a Grade 3, and 12 had won at least a Grade 2.