There’s a spectacular day’s racing at Longchamp on Sunday as the 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe takes centre stage in front of the ITV Racing cameras. Our resident value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe is here with his best bets of the day.
Published: 1.15pm, Thursday, October 3rd (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:30 Longchamp Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) (2yo No Geldings) (New Course) (Turf)
(2yo) – Rashabar 5/1 1pt WIN
It may come as no surprise to see me backing RASHABAR here, who backed up his 80/1 win in the
Coventry with an excellent 3/4L second to Whistlejacket in the G1 Prix Morny over in Deauville.
Brian Meehan’s colt was poorly positioned when caught out on the wing compared to the eventual
winner who had the run of the race up front on the rail under Ryan Moore, and Rashabar had to come wide around runners having been a touch outpaced once the pace lifted.
I’d argue he was the best horse in the race there, and visually he looks ready for a step up to seven furlongs, unsurprisingly, given he’s by Holy Roman Emperor out of a Camelot mare. His sire won this race in 2006 having made his debut over six furlongs that season (was beaten in the Coventry) and finishing 2nd in G1 company prior, which bodes well for Rashabar. The form of the Prix Morny was backed up by the 1st and 2nd both placing in G1 company next time out (Middle Park/Cheveley Park), and the subsequent strength of the Coventry (Rashabar won despite unfavourable track position) further suggests that this progressive colt has the ability to make up into a seriously smart horse for Meehan.
He’s been carefully campaigned by connections, but arguably brings the best form and this looks
the perfect opportunity for him to round off an excellent season before taking the step up to a mile
in either the French/English Guineas next season.
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2:05 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) (2yo+) (Sprint Course) (Turf) (2yo+) – Mgheera 50/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The G3 Prix du Petit Couvert has proved to be a successful stepping stone to the Abbaye in recent seasons, with the 2020, 2019, 2016 and 2014 winners all faring well in that contest en route. Several in here are bidding to maintain that record, MGHEERA was the most eye-catching of all in that contest last time out and was undoubtedly an unlucky loser.
The daughter for Zoustar has progessed well in France this season, placing twice behind crack front runner Ponntos in G3/G2 company before bolting up in listed company, comfortably beating the consistent Batman who was close up behind Shouldvebeenaring in G3 company next time out. Mgheera was then poorly placed out wide behind Bradsell in listed company next time out, having to switch and lose ground whereas the eventual winner and subsequent two time G1 winner had a favourable, straight forward passage.
She broke slowly in the Couvert last time out conceding plenty of ground early, but the way she sliced through the field with ease firmly on the bridle was taking, finishing off strongly once in the clear and would likely have won had she got going earlier.
The French have only won this race once in the last decade, but that did come with one prepping in the Couvert and outside of Bradsell, there isn’t any ‘stars’ in here and we should be wary that this is Bradsell’s fourth run after a layoff with so he mightn’t be bombproof. This big field scenario will suit her strong travelling/hold up style, and if the gaps open up earlier this time then she’s sure to be flying home in the finish to outrun her lofty odds.
3:20 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+) – Aventure 16/1 1pt + EW Fantastic Moon 22/1 1pt EW 4 places
I’ve opted for a double pronged attack here with the ground in mind, and the first selection won’t mind which way it turns up. Fillies have won five of the last ten renewals, including two three-year-olds and the progressive AVENTURE brings all of the preferred allowances to the track.
Before I get into the form, it must be noted what a huge influence the unrivalled broodmare Urban Sea has had on the Arc in the last decade. Cracksman colt Ace Impact won it last season, who’s grand-sire Frankel was by Galileo, who’s dam was Urban Sea (also responsible for the second and third). Alpinista (2022) was by Frankel, Torquator Tasso (2021) is from the family of Allegretta, the dam of Urban Sea, Sottsass’ (2020) dam-sire was Galileo, Waldgiest (2019) was by Galileo, Enable’s (2018/17) dam-sire Sadler’s Wells was the sire of Galileo, and Found (2016) was by Galileo. That is a truly remarkable record, and Sea The Stars filly Aventure can continue that streak.
She’s a consistent sort who’s only been out of the top two once in her second raced career, though only beaten a length in the G1 Prix Diane in June. The step back up to 12F was a suitable one when taking the G2 Prix de Pomone, before beaten 3/4L by Bluestocking in the Prix Vermeille. She lost nothing in defeat there, and though the supplemented Bluestocking is entitled to uphold that form, she’s had a much tougher season than Adventure and she may be able to obtain cover for longer in this bigger field from stall four, as she over-raced slightly last time out. She’s attractive from both a weight carrying and progressive perspective, and with any natural improvement she’s a well respected contender for owners Wertheimer & Frere, who won this with a filly in 2012 who had an identical Autumn prep.
Connections will be hoping for no worse than good to soft ground with FANTASTIC MOON, who lowered the colours of evens favourite Dubai Honour in the G1 Grosser Preis Von Baden last time out. That was a career best effort on RPR’s (122), and the joint highest RPR of any horses in here alongside Shin Emperor, who was beaten a length in the Irish Champion Stakes. The German G1 he won had previously been won by Torquator Tasso in 2021, who posted a 4lbs lower RPR before winning the Arc next time out, and he was also second in that race (117RPR) the following season before beaten 3/4L in the Arc, so it’s a trodden path (also won by Danedream en route t0 Arc success).
This is notably a weak renewal of this heralded classic, and Fantastic Moon was far from disgraced from a wide draw in the race last season. Now drawn better in stall two where he can save ground and travel fluently with cover throughout, he’s entitled to go a few places better in a poor renewal now coming into the race as a G1 winner.
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