The ante-post market for the Derby is now in shape after almost all of the trials have taken place. Even now though, Matty Sutcliffe has picked out the value, finding two best bets to play at this stage three weeks out from the big race.
Stanhope Gardens 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
It was slightly concerning to see STANHOPE GARDENS miss his intended target in the 2000 Guineas due to a ‘minor setback’, but it was pleasing to see connections suggest he is still on track for the Epsom classic and will likely be seen in either a conditions race at Salisbury or a valuable Goodwood handicap. While either of those would certainly be deemed an unconventional route for a Derby winner, we at least know he’s somewhat on track, and if showing up well in one of those contests he’s likely to shorten in price.
The son of Ghaiyyath was one if his sire’s rare smart performing two year olds last term. He was a staying on third to Ruling Court over seven furlongs at Sandown on debut, having been short of daylight throughout with the first two home having the benefit of a clear run. The winner is vying for favouritism in the Derby market having landed the 2000 Guineas last time out, and it was interesting to see the data stating Stanhope Gardens’ stride length was a marginal 0.12 metres than Ruling Court, further enhancing the fact he looked somewhat unlucky not to finish closer to the eventual winner.
Stanhope Gardens confirmed that initial promise when running away with a Beverley Maiden next time out with the second picking up a Redcar Novice in good style in his last start on these shores (rated 90, subsequently sold for £250,000 GNS), pulling eight lengths clear of the third who’s won since on three year old debut.
Ralph Beckett’s charged then stepped up in class to the G3 Autumn Stakes in October and laid down a huge challenge to Delacroix, who was placed in a G2 the time before and was later just touched off in the G1 Futurity, a race won by Auguste Rodin in 2022. Delacroix has since come out and landed both the Ballysax and a Derby Trial at Leopardstown, shooting him to the top of the Derby market.
Stanhope Gardens has to prove both welfare and that he’s trained on, but given his form ties in with both the main contenders at this stage then he has to be considered overpriced. He’s bred to improve with age, and he rates a highly promising colt for a trainer who had the third in the race in 2022.
Tornado Alert 50/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
I’m slightly amazed that TORNADO ALERT is still available at 50/1 for the Derby at this stage, particularly given Saeed Bin Suroor – who won this with Lammtarra in 1995 – has confirmed he’ll ‘definitely be going’.
The Too Darn Hot gelding room a keen hold on debut at Lingfield on debut toward the back end of last season when hanging late on over seven furlongs, but it was a pleasing debut for one bred to appreciate further (1st/2nd both won since), and he went two places better when landing a Newcastle Maiden next time out in game fashion, fending off the 11/8F Byblos, pulling six lengths clear of the third.
He was set a stiff task on turf/3yo debut in the Guineas with a top RPR of only 86, but he bettered that by some 26lbs at Newmarket, faring much better than the eventual finishing position/distance suggested. He made all under a keen hold and the four horses who raced prominently just either side/behind him finished 5th, 6th and 7th, with Tornado Alert pulling three lengths clear of the 114 rated Wimbledon Hawkeye in 5th who’s half his price here. The next three home (112, 118, 120) were all favoured by their pitch in rear, and the winner, Ruling Court, is a general 7/2 shot for the Derby.
It was impressive to see him stay on well after those early unfavourable exertions, and he’s bound to improve for that seasonal debut and first run on turf. By Too Darn Hot out of a Kingmambo mare who produced a G1 winner over the Derby trip and others whose better form has come over further, he’s bound to appreciate this extra distance and rates a solid outsider provided he can back up that initial promise in the Guineas.