Matty Sutcliffe is early out of the blocks this week, just as he hopes some of his potential value bets will be on Saturday. He has four selections across three of the Group races on Champions Day to kick you off.
Published: 9.15am, Tuesday, October 15th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:20 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Al Nayyir 7/2 1pt WIN
The 8/11 on offer for Kyprios is intriguing, as even if I were a short priced punter I wouldn’t want to take that, but in the same sense, he is one of the greatest stayers in the modern era.
As incredible as he has been this season, his last defeat came in this contest last season when officially rated a pound higher, and I know he was having his second run after a potentially life threatening injury, but this time around he’s coming off the back of a fourth straight G1 win and given he’s been on the go since April, I just wonder what he has left in the tank for a race of this nature which is looking set to be run on testing ground.
Unfortunately we’ve missed the fancier prices about AL NAYYIR, but if there’s anything to come out of the woodwork and serve it up to Kyprios, it may be Tom Clover’s six-year-old Dubawi gelding, who bolted up in the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes last month.
The former Godolphin inmate hails from the classy German dam-line of Waldmark, notably responsible for Masked Marvel and Waldlerche, the latter the dam of Arc winner Waldgeist. He graduated into black-type company through handicaps in Meydan, placing multiple times behind the likes of Siskany and Tower Of London, latterly in March when finishing a length ahead of Trawlerman in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup.
Al Nayyir joined Tom Clover in July, making an immediate impact when beaten a neck by Vauban in the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor Meeting, a performance which can be upgraded due to the unfavourable track bias in rear throughout that meeting. His RPR of 116 there is right up there with the likes of Coltrane, Quickthorn and Stradivarius who’ve won that race in the last decade, and have all established themselves as genuine G1 stayers.
Al Nayyir was sent off the 11/8F for the Rose Bowl Stakes and while he was entitled to win on the figures, visually it could hardly have been any more impressive the drawing eight lengths clear from Harbour Wind, firmly on the bridle throughout. If continuing his progression for Tom Clover over two miles, he can become a very smart stayer for the next couple of seasons and his blend of speed and stamina, along with the ability to handle soft going, rates him a confident enough selection up against Kyprios and co.
1:55 Ascot – British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Audience 16/1 0.5pt EW 3 places + Beauvatier 16/1 1pt WIN
AUDIENCE hasn’t be seen over six furlongs since beaten two lengths in a Newmarket Handicap off 100 in 2022, but visually his rip-roaring style could put some of these to the sword early on. His rating of 124 puts him 7lbs clear of Kinross and Mill Stream, who are both rated 117, and while that mark probably flatters him, he’s still been a dominant winner of the G1 Lockinge and G2 Lennox Stakes this season.
There’s reason to believe we can forgive his 4/7F 4th at York last time out, as he broke slowly from stall six and was reportedly knocked in the stalls by Lake Forest, and evidently didn’t look happy from flag fall. The forecast soft ground will play into the hands of his surplus of stamina, and if on song, he could easily make a mockery of these, particularly given he’s already finished five lengths clear of Kinross this season, who’s currently 4/1.
If Audience doesn’t quite have the finishing kick to put the race to bed, or is taken on early, then the race looks destined for a closer and the French raider BEAUVATIER could have his perfect conditions. Though predominantly kept to longer distances, his record between 5f-6½f reads 1133, with the penultimate effort coming behind the unbeaten Lazzat in the G1 Pix Maurice de Gheest, finishing ahead of Mill Stream and Flora Of Bermuda who’re both ahead of him in the market here.
He’s a Lope De Vega colt with bundles of class, given he was third to Rosallion in the Lagadere as a two-year-old, and began this season with a 3/4L 2nd to Ramadan in a G3, with that one going on to take the G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein in a comfortable manner last time out. He was far too keen in the French Guineas, and the drop back from a mile has clearly spark improvement. His third behind Spycatcher and James’s Delight on his penultimate start can be upgraded given he fared miles the best of those racing up the far-side/middle, and although he was a beaten 9/5F, he was arguably an unlucky loser on account of his track position.
He showed his natural speed when swooping down the outside to grab third in the G1 Foret earlier this month, finishing 3/4L behind Kinross and while we could look at that as suggestions to going back up in trip, a strongly run 6F on soft ground where the leaders may come back to the field could easily suit all the same, and if that is the case then this classy colt can finally return to the winners enclosure. As an entire son of Lope De Vega out of a Sea The Stars mare, connections will be desperate for a graded win as a 3yo in order to further boost his potential prospects as a stallion.
2:25 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) – War Chimes 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
WAR CHIMES’ below par 8th in the Irish Oaks can be forgotten, as she broke slowly away in rear and wasn’t given the greatest of rides by Seamie Heffernan. She was taken out wide off the bend, and given she has a tendency to hang right, she certainly struggled after that. Had she stuck to the rail, she may have well ended up plenty closer particularly given she the first and second were both favoured by their early pitch on the rail. War Chimes was almost unrideable, but still came home with promise under hands and heels despite that awful hanging, which is a testament to her ability.
We can instead judge her on her third in the G1 Oaks at Epsom, where she belied her 50/1 odds, finishing three lengths ahead of the subsequent Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me. That isn’t the first time we’ve seen an air of class about her, as she bolted up by five lengths in a Listed contest at Chantilly as a 2yo last October, with subsequent G1 winner and Arc (went off favourite) Sosie well beaten in second.
The three year olds have dominated this contest in recent seasons, and this forecast softer ground will play to her strengths, along with the right handed track.
Added: 10.45am, Friday, October 18th (Odds correct at time of writing)
4:35 Ascot – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Bopedro 12/1 1pt EW + Sir Busker 20/1 0.5pt EW + Mr Professor 16/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Six of the last ten winners of this contest were birthed in single figure stalls, and last season saw the first seven runners home coming from a single figure draw (4,5,2,7,3,9,8) which bodes well for my trio, who are drawn in stall one, three and four respectively. Now, nothing would create the perfect crescendo for the flat season than David O’Meara taking the last big handicap of the schedule, as he has done in three of the last seven years and BOPEDRO would be the cherry on top. He’s winless in his last 16 attempts, with more ‘eye-catching’ rides than you could imagine, but if he is ever going to win again then this has to be the race he’s been laid out for.
He was fourth in last year’s renewal when faring second best of those coming from the rear. Only four of the first ten home came from the back/midfield, Lattam (7th) subsequently finished second in the Lincoln on reappearance, Sonny Liston (6th) has climbed 8lbs having won a C2 at Newbury on reappearance and finished second in the Royal Hunt Cup, and Docklands (3rd) has climbed 11lbs having placed three times in Listed/Group company, including the G1 Queen Anne behind Charyn. Bopedro is 8lbs lower than that effort, and a repeat would see him go close. He’s been coming to the boil of late, finishing second in his group in the Cambridgeshire when unfavored by the far side bias, and he backed that up when an eyecatching third over an inadequate seven furlongs here in the Challenge Cup behind two progressive three-year-olds.
While he is versatile in terms of the ground, he’s a three-time winner on soft going and has form on heavy, and given his best RPR (109) for O’Meara came over 1m1f in the ’23 Cambridgeshire, an extra surplus of stamina can bode well in these conditions.
SIR BUSKER was a ‘nap’ for the column when taking the Sky Bet Finale Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting in August and I’m retaining the faith once more for what can be one last hoorah for the admiral son of Sir Prancelot. The eight-year-old bounced back to form in first time cheekpieces when a staying on fourth in conditions at Goodwood, splitting subsequent Group winners including Prague, who lines up in the Champion Stakes.
I thought he won with a ton in hand at York though admittedly favoured throughout by his track position (excellent ride, too) and while the form is open to questions, he posted an RPR of 116, only a pound below when finishing third in the G1 Juddmonte Stakes behind Baaeed and he backed that run up to a degree when a two-length fourth in Listed company at Ayr. He brings the Group form that some of these could only dream of achieving, and he has high class form on soft ground in contests such as the Champion Stakes in 2020. That also bodes well for his ability to handle the straight track, not to mention he was a C&D winner in the Royal Hunt Cup that year. His extra surplus of stamina will surely be a positive in what is likely to be seriously testing conditions, and while he is a pound out of the weights, Brandon Wilkie returns to the saddle to claim 5lbs, alleviating of the stresses of top weight. The final dart of my low draw battalion is MR PROFESSOR, who was a comfortable winner of the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on soft ground on seasonal reappearance. We’ve only seen him twice since and he threw in two stinkers, but both of those efforts came on ground far too lively, including in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. While he lacks the class of some of these, I just wonder whether he’s been kept fresh all season for this and we could see another Lincoln style surprise. The ground couldn’t be any more perfect for him, with his record on ground (over a mile+) containing soft in the description reading 13324121, and two of those efforts included beating Westover as a 2yo, and more recently when finishing behind Botanical, who’s climbed 24lbs since. He stays 1m1f so the stamina can come to the fore, he’s only 5lbs above his convincing success in the Lincoln and his proven ability to go well fresh can see him bounce back to form.
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