Matty Sutcliffe has spotted some big price fancies for you to follow on Friday, as the Future Champions meeting kicks off at Newmarket. Here are his trio to follow.
Published: 4.37pm, Wednesday, October 9th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:47 Newmarket – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo) – Mr Lightside 14/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
This looks an open renewal of the Cornwallis and MR LIGHTSIDE looks overpriced at 14/1 given his consistency in some much stronger races this season. The son of Earthlight was a bet for the column when beaten a length by stablemate Big Mojo in the Molecomb, who has backed that form up when reversing the Molecomb places with Aesterius in the G2 Flying Childers at Doncaster.
Mr Lightside was potentially unsuited by his wide draw at York next time out but still fared well when having to come from rear, and he ran to a similar level at Doncaster when perhaps losing a couple places late on being short of room. This wider track at Newmarket might suit as that isn’t the first time he’s looked uncomfortable in a finish. On the strength of his Nottingham win in June, he’s entitled to be bang there on Friday given he beat the subsequent Doncaster £300,000 stakes race winner Hallasan (Camille Pissarro in second there) with the subsequent York Goffs Million’s winner three lengths back in third.
The Cornwallis often goes to one with a bundle of 2yo experience, and hopefully he can put it to good use with Rossa Ryan back on board.
3:35 Newmarket – bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1) (Class 1) (2yo) – California Dreamer 66/1 0.5pt EW 2 places
CALIFORNIA DREAMER has been crying for a step up to a mile and if the trip brings out further improvement then she can run a massive race despite being the outsider of the field.
The daughter of Mehmas was sent off 4/7f on debut though beaten a head by a smart filly, and she’s ran five solid races since. She was beaten a length by subsequent Albany winer Fairy Godmother next time out, with herself running a big race in fifth there staying on from midfield despite hanging right throughout. She kept on strongly in G2 company at the Curragh next time out with January two lengths in behind her there, who’s currently the 4/1 second favourite here. She then looked the winner at one stage in the Anglesey Stakes, but was done for toe by Babouche who took the G1 Phoenix Stakes next time out, and she was only a length behind Camille Pissarro who took the G1 Lagadere last weekend. She lost a shoe that day, but rallied well to grab third, shaping once more as if needing an extra furlong or two. She had a luckless passage in the G3 Weld Park but travelled effortlessly in rear, coming home strongly under hands and heels once in the clear.
Visually, everything we’ve seen so far suggests she’ll improve for this mile, and the pedigree backs that up given her dam was a G1 winner over 1m3f and has bred a winner over 1m4/5F. She’s consistent in defeat and collateral form ties in with these, so if she does improve for the trip then it’ll be no surprise to me should she come home in front.
4:10 Newmarket – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo – Blake 12/1 1pt EW 4 places
BLAKE has twice been a bet for the column, once when bolting up at Sandown in soft ground, then last time out at Doncaster where shaped as if needing the run having weakened into fifth late on. That race will have brought him on from his two moth layoff, and he looks well handicapped off a mark of 88. His Sandown race worked out well with the third winning next time out, the fourth rattling off a subsequent hattrick, and the fifth and seventh both winning since.
He’s also well handicapped on the Epsom run behind Persica where faring well in rear despite hating the track, and also on his second to Lava Stream where the pair met off 74, with the winner now rated 106. Any rain will be welcome but the ground should be fine if remaining good, and the inform Ryan Kavanagh takes a useful 7lbs off to bring him only 2lbs above that last winning mark.
Added: 2.10pm, Thursday, October 10th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:30 York – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Autumn Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Empirestateofmind 25/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
With soft/heavy ground forecast at York, a wide draw may be no bad thing as the far-side has been favourable throughout the last few meetings, so the fresher ground could well be on this nearside and that can help EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, who’s likely to swing wide off the turn and come down this near-side rail on what will hopefully be the better strip of ground.
The son of Starspangledbanner has shown his best form to be in the mud, with three of his five career wins coming with soft in the going, along with seven of his ten other places on turf (has also fared well in heavy ground Lincoln/Haydock handicaps). He’s not seen much racing this season, having had wind surgery after his third to mud lover Sparks Fly in Haydock last September, and only reappearing over C&D in July. We can draw a line through that run as he was keen enough from a 287 day layoff and the visor was discarded next time out, where he fared well from the front in the Thirsk Summer Cup handicap beaten only four lengths in a competitive renewal.
Empirestateofmind was dropped 3lbs for that and not all that disgraced in the Cambridgeshire, given the action all came up the far side and he was only five lengths behind the first home in his group up the centre, who fared no better than 9th. Having been dropped a further 3lbs, he’s 8lbs lower than his opening seasonal mark and back on his lowest mark in handicaps since when taking the Thirsk Summer Cup in 2022. This race has likely been the plan for connections, given he was second in it off 8lbs in 2022 when a 5/1F, and given he’s five times the price this time around and a lot fresher, he rates a confident selection.
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