Our resident value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe is going Stateside with his latest column, as our star man previews Friday’s action at the Breeders’ Cup. It’s a stunning two days of world class flat racing at Del Mar and here are his best bets for day one of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championship…
Published: 9.15am, Wednesday, October 30th (Odds correct at time of writing)
9:45pm Del Mar Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (2yo) (Turf) (2yo) – Magnum Force 12/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
The pace looks to be a furious one here, spread all across the track with Aesterius and Big Mojo from 2/3 and the O’Brien pair from 7/12, and that could prove a positive for MAGNUM FORCE, who can stalk the leaders from his handy draw in stall four.
The son of Mehmas was a huge eye-catcher when coming from the widest draw in the Listed Julia Graves Roses Stakes at York’s Ebor meeting, being the only one to clock sub 12-sec final furlong having been denied a clear run two out. He reversed that form with Tropical Storm in the Flying Childers next time out, but couldn’t quite see off Big Mojo and Aesterius having taking a keen grip throughout.
Magnum Force notably travelled the best of all there, and sitting off what’s likely to be a strong gallop could see him reverse the form with that pair who top the market.
10:25 Del Mar NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Main Track) (Dirt) (2yo) -Scottish Lassie 9/2 1pt WIN
By ’19 Breeders’ Cup Classic second Mckinzie, SCOTTISH LASSIE broke her maiden in a facile manner in the G1 Frizette Stakes, settling well off the pace in midfield before opening up in impressive fashion to reverse the debut form with Snowyte, bolting up by nine lengths.
She posted an RPR of 111 there, the same as Just FYI did en-route to winning this race last season and clocking a quicker time in the process. The Frizette Stakes is a nice path to this contest, having also been won by Echo Zulu and Jaywalk in recent seasons en-route. The wide draw raises a slight eyebrow, but it’s not so much a concern on dirt than it is on turf at Del Mar and that proved the case with Just FYI last season.
11:05 Del Mar John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) (2yo) – May Day Ready 20/1 1pt EW 3 places
Lake Victoria looks to follow the same path as her stablemate Meditate did en-route to success here two seasons ago, and has been minded since the Cheveley Park for this race. She’s accordingly priced with a nice draw in one, but the one that looks a shade overpriced is the unbeaten MAY DAY READY for Joseph Lee and Frankie Dettori.
The $325,000 daughter of Champion US sire Tapit has been praised for her professionalism by Joseph Lee, who’s arguably better known for his work previous behind the scenes as assistant to many high class American yards.
Dettori has ridden her in all three starts, getting up late on debut despite breaking slowly and sitting ten lengths off the field in rear. She was given an educational ride by Dettori, but picked up well through the field when making a big move in the middle park of the race, picking up well and showing a good attitude to fend off the second, with the pair pulling four lengths clear.
She backed that 26/1 effort up next time out in listed company at Keeneland, again not looking all that clued up under Dettori but she again picked up well once asked a serious question, coming home strongly to win a shade cosily. May Day Ready stepped up to G2 company last time out and was once more settled in rear, through suffered somewhat of an interrupted passage throughout. Despite that unfavourable trip, she once again showed a battling attitude to get up first past the post. Aunt Pearl won the same race en-route to success here, which bodes well for May Day Ready and I don’t think we’ve quite seen the best of her yet.
This will be a much different test for her, but she strikes me as the type to be much better in a stronger event and she rates a confident each way contender.
12:25 Del Mar Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts, Geldings & Ridglings) (Turf) (2yo) – Henri Matisse 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
Aidan O’Brien has won this four times since 2015, and his last two runners both had their prep race in France (Appleby also used Chantilly en-route in 2018 with Line Of Duty). Unquestionable beat stablemate Mountain Bear in this last season having finished second in the Lagardere, and that bodes well for HENRI MATISSE, who wasn’t seen to best effect when a beaten favourite in that race last time out.
His form prior to that reads well, he was possibly unlucky not tom win the G1 National Stakes having looked awfully raw in the final stages under pressure, but given he was ahead of Aomori City there suggests he’s overpriced at this stage. Prior to that he was a comfortable winner of a G2 at the Curragh pulling a length clear of Hotazhell, who’s won twice since including the G1 Futurity Stakes last time out.
He’s not been given a favourable draw in stall ten, but that may aid his cause given he can settle in rear off a strong gallop. He shapes as if this mile trip will suit, and his dam was a two time G1 winner over a mile.
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