The November meeting at Cheltenham has been and gone, as the jumps season in earnest begins in full swing. Matty Sutcliffe has heeded the clues on offer over the past week and has emerged with a 16/1 Arkle fancy for you to follow.
Arkle – July Flower 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
The Arkle betting hasn’t changed all that much in that last couple weeks, as those originally to the fore of the market have all put in some promising displays over fences. Last year’s Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes won cosily as expected at Navan on Monday, pulling his way into the lead under Paul Townend and drawing away impressively from the second last. It was far from a deep field, but he won with any amount of ease under a motionless Paul Townend and deservedly remains at the head of the betting.
Lulamba’s chase debut at Exeter was also a successful one, though met with slightly more concern regarding his Arkle hopes from the racing public. I thought it was fairly flawless despite making a few awkward shapes over his fences, but that can be expected for a novice and the omission of four fences perhaps didn’t allow us to see him flourish. He’s a different model to Kopek Des Bordes, who can be something of a live-wire and will likely inject plenty of early speed in the Arkle, whereas Lulamba looks more of an assured model who could easily stay further in time and won’t be seen to best effect until late on in the contest.
Romeo Coolio also made his chase debut at the back end of last month, drawing away impressively in the latter stages to win fourteen lengths to the good. There were four fences omitted there however, and we again didn’t learn all that much about him. There were few holes to poke in the performance, but I suspect he’s one who connections will be kicking the programme for eradicating the Turners Novices’ Chase.
The Mares Brighterdaysahead and Kargese are yet to make their chase debuts, but one mare who has shone over fences is Henry De Bromhead’s JULY FLOWER. The daughter of Pastorius is a fascinating contender given the high class form she achieved in France, winning a Grade One AQPS contest as a three year old before placing twice behind the classy Losange Bleu in Grade 1 Hurdles.
She switched to Ireland last season and made a successful debut when landing a Grade 3 at Leopardstown, though her limitations were exposed after being beaten 13 and 15 lengths into fifth in the Grade 1 Mares contests at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festival’s. Connections decided to send her Novice Chasing this season, and she blossomed on chase debut at Limerick when a well backed 8/15F. She sat third on the rail throughout under Darragh O’Keeffe and hardly touched a twig, before she was moved up just before the turn and taken out wide were she put in a number of fluent leaps, notably standing way off two out and quickening up impressively to wing the last and draw away by 11 lengths.
July Flower then came to Cheltenham last weekend for the Arkle Trial and stepped up once more. She sat in third early on behind Be Aware and Burdett Road and while her first couple of jumps were flat, she made it from A to B perfectly fine and crucially quickened away on each landing. The pace slackened down the back allowing the three in behind to catch up, but once it lifted again turning down the home straight even Burdett Road couldn’t quite match the pace of both Be Aware and July Flower, who turned it into a two-horse race.
July Flower quickened past Be Aware in an instant, displaying a smart turn of foot for a mare who has been placed over three miles, and she stayed on strongly up the hill. It was a performance that displays every attribute in what you need to win an Arkle, which you couldn’t necessarily state regarding that of Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba. The yard won the Arkle Trial with Put The Kettle On in 2019, recording an RPR just 2lbs lower than July Flower, and we saw with Jango Baie last season that an assured jumper with an abundance of stamina is a huge asset in taking the coveted contest, which July Flower is a near facsimile of and at this stage, she represents better value than the 7/4 and 3/1 about Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba.
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