The Grand National is the race everyone wants to find the winner of. However, our value expert Matthew Sutcliffe is not just looking an easy short-priced winner, but one to land a punt at a big price. As such, he has four still in the race to follow five days out from the start.
Published: 9.45am, Monday, 8th April (Odds correct at time of publication)
Chemical Energy – 33/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
There’s been no sign of this nation-wide deluge coming to a halt and for all the Grand National course dries out well, it’s hard to envisage the ground will contain any ‘good’ in the going with further rain forecast, and I’d imagine we’ll be in for a serious slog. At first glance, that doesn’t bode entirely well for the chances of CHEMICAL ENERGY whose five wins over hurdles have all come on good ground, but he won a Down Royal bumper in soft conditions but all his top three RPR’s (154 x2 + 140) came on going recorded with (according to Timeform) soft in its description. Progeny of Well Chosen tend to revel in the mud, like his full brother Whatsforuwontgobyu who won three times on soft, as did his half-brother Marlee Massie whose six career wins all came on soft-heavy going.
I’m less concerned by him handling the ground as I am than his layoff, as you’d be searching an awfully long way back to find the last Grand National winner who hadn’t prepped for the race this side of Christmas. however he won on debut, and recorded further wins fresh from a 185-day layoff and a 149-day layoff, so at least we know he has the ability to go well fresh, and it’s interesting they come here as opposed to another tilt towered the Irish equivalent, which would naturally have been less of stamina test, so I presume Elliott will have him primed here.
Regarding the trip, like the majority of these, he’s untried this far but his effort in the National Hunt Chase last season suggests it’s within his grasp. He was travelling the best of all after the turn for home, with Codd looking confident despite Mahler Mission being several lengths ahead but was overhauled late on by the favourite Gailard Du Mesnil after being steadied into the last losing momentum. He lost nothing in defeat there given he was rated 8lb inferior, and Willie Mullins’ winner proved his stamina by finishing third in the Grand National thereafter.
He holds an entry in the Scottish Grand National, possibly in search of better ground, but he’d likely carry close to top-weight there as opposed to the 10-8 he’ll carry here, so hopefully connections take their chance with him as he looks sure to be suited by this test and go well at a fair price.
Roi Mage – 50/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
You would have to go all the way back until 2004 to find the last 12-year-old winner of the Grand National, but ROI MAGE looks seriously overpriced here, particularly from an each-way perspective. The son of Poliglote gave Felix De Giles an unforgettable spin in last year’s renewal, where he was beaten just 14 lengths, and comes back 1lb lower this time around. The underfoot conditions will aid him further given his eight wins have all come on soft-heavy going (seven in France), and the booking of James Reveley bodes well given he’s ridden him (once to victory) on three occasions.
I like that they’ve given him a lighter campaign this time around, and he posted a 13lb higher RPR at Down Royal last time out than when he did in the same race last season en-route to the National, so given that will naturally have primed him for this, he’s entitled to run better this time around. He’s one of few in the race guaranteed to stay the trip well, and will benefit from a quiet ride in midfield, picking up any pieces late on in the day.
Farouk D’Alene – 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Another bullet for the heavily loaded gun of Elliott’s National battalion, but this time around we don’t have any ground concerns. FAROUK D’ALENE has a healthy strike rate of 6/14 in his lifetime, with a further three second places, all of them coming on soft-heavy ground, unsurprisingly for a French-bred gelding. The former point-to-point winner was unbeaten in two bumper runs, before recording two victories from three efforts as a novice hurdler, latterly beating last year’s National runner-up Vanillier in a Limerick Grade 2.
He made the perfect start over fences at Navan and was just touched off in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices’ Chase next time out, shaping as if going up in trip over fences would suit. That proved to be the case when second to Stattler (Vanillier well beaten behind again) at Naas over three miles who subsequently won the National Hunt Chase, before regaining the winning thread on heavy ground in a Grade 2 at Navan. It often takes a proper stayer to win the Brown Advisory, and he may well have done before coming down two out in 2022. His form tailed off after that fall, but he’s always threatened to be suited by a test of this sort and he wasn’t given a tough time when pulling up in the Pertemps last month, which was surely just to blow off any cobwebs for this contest with connections again opting to skip to Irish equivalent.
Mac Tottie – 100/1 0.25pt EW 5 places
MAC TOTTIE is one of just six GB runners guaranteed a run at the weights in here, and while he has an entry in the Topham, a race he won in 2022, he’s still 13lb higher than that success and connections will surely give their admirable 11-year-old a chance in this years Grand National before it’s too late.
While the Grand National fences aren’t as daunting as they once were, they’re still a unique set of obstacles that truly put a horse’s jumping capabilities to the limit like no other. Given Mac Tottie is both a Topham and a Grand Sefton winner, there won’t be many horses lining up, if any, who will appreciate these notorious fences more than the rest. While he undoubtedly lacks the class and potential for some of these, those two aforementioned factors can often be trumped by the ability to simply handle conditions.
This excellent servant will be stepping into unknown territory over the trip but holds no ground/ track fears, and should he get into a rhythm, then he may find himself amongst the placings at large odds with him fit from two runs last month.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Grand National Value Punts
Chemical Energy – 33/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Roi Mage – 50/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Farouk D’Alene – 66/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
Mac Tottie – 100/1 0.25pt EW 5 places
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