As well as focusing on the Breeders’ Cup, Matty Sutcliffe has delved into the weekend’s domestic cards to give you four best bets from Ascot and Wetherby on Saturday.
1:15 Wetherby – Position Payout At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125) – Strong Foundations 6/1 1pt WIN
The progressive five-year-old Lightning Flash has to be feared after making a solid start to his chasing career but he may face competition for the lead in Glen Cannel, and the race could set up perfectly for chase debutant STRONG FOUNDATIONS.
The son of Malinas split two subsequently useful rivals under rules when second in a Belharbour point in 2023 and he made a promising bumper debut at Cheltenham when fourth to The Kemble Brewery with Valgrand in second.
He failed to win a bumper in his next two starts, but he made no mistake on hurdles debut at Warwick on seasonal debut last term. He looked far from the finished article there, running green off the bend and hanging under pressure, but it was a smart debut regardless and the second has progressed well since now rated 127, with the third also winning next time out now rated 118.
It was a stiff enough task when well beaten in the G2 Sharp Novices’ next time out, and he got back on track to some degree when third to the now 136 rated No Questions Asked at Hereford. His latest effort came at Cheltenham in a competitive class two handicap when midfield around rivals rated in the mid 120s, and this slight ease in class should suit him better for this chase debut.
Robert Dunne returns to the saddle, who won on him on hurdles debut, the in-form yard are two from eight here in handicap chases at Wetherby over the last five seasons and I’d expect Strong Foundations to take advantage of this low handicap mark for chasing.
1:30 Ascot – Ascot Underwriting Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+) – Lylian 4/1 1pt WIN
Gary Moore has won this race twice since 2017 including with a four year old in Nassalam, and has also targeted the race with the likes of Goshen and Editeur Du Gite so it’s plausible to suggest that French recruit LYLIAN will show up well here on yard debut.
Connections bought him for £95,000 out of the Arqana Summer sales shortly after his successful start over fences, where he drew seven lengths clear late on at Dieppe and he was only just collared close to home there late on by the favourite next time out.
It’s tough to assess whether this opening British mark of 126 is a workable one and he is 2lbs out of the handicap, but the fact they pitch him into this contest where historically they’ve sent their nice chasers suggests he’s shown plenty at home for his new yard and this son of Tunis, whose stock are generally looking like big chasing types, is an interesting recruit for the Moores.
2:05 Ascot – Grundon Waste Management Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Boothill 13/2 1pt WIN
Classy chaser Boothill has form figures of 1111FF in handicap chases including taking this race in a good manner two seasons ago and with his Ascot record reading 1114, he’s taken to defy topweight to enhance his proven record when fresh.
He won the Hurst Park Chase off 2lbs lower two seasons ago and we only saw him three time last year, with his seasonal debut coming in the Shloer Chase when a length second to Jonbon. He fell too early on in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton next time out to suggest whether he’d have played a part in the finish or not, for all he did look somewhat out of his comfort zone when well beaten in the Clarence House.
He’s one of those who just falls short at the top level against genuine grade one chasers, but he is well suited to handicaps of this nature as he’s able to travel strongly in rear off a quick gallop and if returning in a similar vein of form to his Shloer Chase second, he can reclaim this race once more.
2:22 Wetherby – bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Strong Leader 13/8 1.5pt WIN
This looks a good opportunity for STRONG LEADER to make a winning return to action for the in form duo of Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy. The Passing Glance gelding has taken his form to a new level since being stepped up to three miles, finishing third in the Cleeve Hurdle behind Noble Yeats and Paisley Park before comfortably winning the G1 Aintree Hurdle.
He made a winning return to action last season when landing the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and he can be forgiven for his next two starts after that on account of his wind. He posted the same RPR of 159 when only second in the Aintree Hurdle last season, and that’s clear of anything these rivals have been able to achieve thus far.
His form fresh reads 1210112 with the sole blip coming in the Welsh Champion Hurdle off topweight two seasons ago and it would be a surprise to see him come up short in this field.
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