More top quality flat racing takes place at Doncaster on Friday 12th September with day two of the St Leger Festival. Our value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe is here with his best bets for the afternoon and has four selections for the action on Town Moor, which includes 16/1 and 12/1 shots.
1:15 Doncaster – Betfred Mallard Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Beylerbeyi 12/1 1pt EW 4 places
The Invincible Spirit gelding has transformed himself after stepping up beyond a mile this season, with form figures of 31114 climbing 15lbs in the process. While that came to a halt in the Silver Bell at Hamilton last time out, that effort can be upgraded as they went very steady early on and BEYLERBEYI generally has to come off a strong gallop as he can be keen early. However, he still managed to rally late on to be beaten two lengths behind the progressive Paddy The Squire, who was only beaten three lengths from a 5lbs higher mark in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock next time out. The quickest finishing speed percentage of 107.53% put up by Beylerbeyi that day further suggests we can upgrade his performance as opposed to stating this career high mark is beyond him.
He has to prove he can cope with another step up in distance to 1m6f, but the way he travelled and picked up at Newmarket over 1m4f off a strong gallop to win eased down by four lengths suggests that’s no issue, and the return to a track where he was two from two at last season will bode well with the forecast rain to further enhance his claims.
1:50 Doncaster – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – Sunset On Leros 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
SUNSET ON LEROS copped a £25,000 Tattersalls October Book One Bonus when striding away in a valuable Novice Stakes over C&D here in July and this will have been the plan since.
The son of Almanzor was weak in the market at Newmarket in June and shaped late on as if in need of the run, but that race has turned out to be strong form with the Godolphin first and second now rated 102 and 104, the fourth rated 97 and the fifth rated 92.
Sunset On Leros duly came on for that run when prominent on the far side over C&D and travelling all over the field off a modest early gallop early on. The pace lifted at the five furlong pole when Sunset On Leros clocked a 11.06 second furlong, 0.13 quicker than anything else before an 11.13 second sixth furlong, 0.18 quicker than anything and that immediate turn of foot was far too good for the three length second Allegresse, who was in receipt of 2lbs and franked that form very healthily next time out when landing a Kempton Novice by nine lengths posting an RPR of 94.
That performance marked him as a smart colt to follow, and he’s bred to be the part being out of the 2017 G2 Rockfel Stakes winner Juliet Capulet. She was at her best on a softer surface so combined that with his sire Almanzor, any forecast rain will suit and Marco Botti’s runners generally show up strongly at Doncaster, with his record here in the last five seasons reading 69-11-32 (£24.58+), narrowed down to 18-4-8 (£26.75+) in non handicaps.
2:25 Doncaster – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) – Lady Iman 11/4 2pt WIN
Big Evs won this in 2023 having bounced back from Nunthorpe defeat after a win in the Molecomb at Goodwood and LADY IMAN can repeat that feat. It was always going to be a tough ask for the daughter of Starman coming up against types far more experienced and physically advanced than her, but having watched the race back on multiple occasions earlier I couldn’t quite believe how well she travelled into the Nunthorpe.
She clocked the third quickest speed in the contest, the second fastest third furlong and she averaged the second highest stride frequency in the race which backs up the visual suspicion that at halfway she looked to be going the best of all, but ultimately I thought she shirked it once the more imposing sprinters came upsides her and Joe Fanning wasn’t all that tough on her once the chance had gone, which may have been the key component in ensuring she is ripe enough for this contest.
Prior to that her record read 111 over five furlongs and she was a comfortable winner of the Molecomb which has often proved a good route for the Flying Childers. She’s closely matched with Revival Power and Military Code on a line through the Dickensian form there, but with multiple pace influences (drawn two down from Revival Power and next to Exclamation) this race will likely set up perfectly for her to travel off the pace and picked them up late on, with the proven stamina for six furlongs key on this galloping five furlongs.
3:00 Doncaster – Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Pendragon 10/1 1pt EW 3 places
Last year’s winner Sweet William won’t have a better chance to return to the winner’s enclosure in a field which is essentially full of either exposed older sorts or consistent handicappers, but the sole ace in the pack to serve it up to him could be the three-year-old PENDRAGON.
Just three three-year-olds have won this race since 2001, but Sir Mark Prescott was responsible for the first of those in Alleluia who similarly progressed well in handicap company once stepped up in trip. Pendragon is the archetypal Prescott improve, as he made little improvement in his four Novice runs as a two-year-old last season but a subsequent gelding operation and a switch to handicapping up in trip has dramatically seen him improve this term.
He was heavily backed on handicap debut at Ripon when bolting up four lengths and it doesn’t take a genius to know what the racing post comments read ‘regarding the apparent improvement in form’, and it was a similar story when turned out eight days later here at Doncaster when a five length winner under a six pound penalty and that could’ve been further had he not been eased down.
Pendragon faced his stiffest task yet when upped to a 0-85 in open company at Sandown, but he took that rise with aplomb when once more belying a 6lbs penalty to beat Fireblade by four lengths, who took a Shergar Cup contest next time out and was just touched off at York on Sunday posting an RPR of 100.
Pendragon’s winning run came to a halt in 0-95 company, but he pulled clear with a progressive Frankel colt giving him 5lbs who franked that form very healthily next time out when winning the Melrose Handicap at York to beat the well backed favourite Many Men, pulling three lengths clear from the third and now rated 101 (is entered in the Leger).
There’s reason to believe Pendragon’s true mark could be 105 in that respect, which would put him 10lbs below Sweet William on official ratings however given he receives 11lbs from the favourite, he suddenly doesn’t have all that much to find with him.
He still has to improve a fair chunk to beat some seasoned stayers now going further up in trip, but there’s no telling where his limitations lie for a yard who have history in this contest with similar types.
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