Our top value tipster Matthew Sutcliffe has a whopping SEVEN tips for Saturday 4th October, as he picks out his best bets for a bumper day’s racing on ITV, with him picking out his selections from Ascot and Newmarket.
1:15 Ascot – British EBF October Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Arolla 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
This looks a fairly open renewal of the October Stakes and while the ground currently reads good, Ascot is forecast around 21mm of rain across Friday and a further 4mm on the morning of Saturday, so I’m working on the assumption that come the opener, the ground will be soft enough for AROLLA to run a big race.
The daughter of Kingman looked a promising type last season when landing a Ffos Las novice on debut by three lengths, before bolting up eight lengths under a penalty next time out at Leicester on heavy ground when barely coming off the bridle. She came up short in listed company at Saint-Cloud next time out, but I’m not sure she got the trip there, and it was more a case she beat inferior rivals over a mile on debut at Ffos Las.
The slight drop in trip saw her beaten only a length on Polytrack at Deavuille in listed company next time out behind the talented Cloud Cover, who franked that form next time out when landing a fillies handicap at Newcastle off top-weight.
Arolla reappeared this season with a length second over seven furlongs to 5/6F Jabaara who was rated 11lbs superior and has since ran creditably in here three subsequent runs, but the step up to a mile on a firmer surface in the Britannia saw her well beaten. It was a similar case in the Dick Hern Stakes over a mile at Haydock when beaten seven lengths in a race where you had to race prominently as has often been the case there of late, but I thought she ran a super race next time out in the Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster.
She was behind Bright Thunder and Miss Nightfall, but along with the latter she fared well from off the pace with five of the first seven home racing prominently, and given there’s only two lengths to find with Miss Nightfall, she looks overpriced at 25s with that one.
While she’s 0-6 since those first two wins, her three best efforts have all come at this trip and given she possess some stamina in reserve, this straight seven on a stiff track on forecast soft ground can see her run a big race under Paul Mulrennan, who’s strong, patient style can suit this filly.
1:30 Newmarket – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – Our Golden One 22/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Again, Newmarket is currently good to firm but with around 22mm forecast prior to racing on Saturday, I’d expect conditions to turn sour and that will only suit Blessed Star, Princess Rascal, Chic Colombine and OUR GOLDEN ONE.
Blessed Star would be of interest on her second to Cape Flora at York but with form figures of 22232322 and getting beat at 3/10F last time out, you’d have to question her constitution. Similar thoughts apply to Princess Rascal who didn’t look all that genuine when having every chance to go past Azaniya at Windsor, and she ran amiss at Kempton next time out. Chic Colombine gets her ground and she’s 2/2 in handicaps, so the drop back to this company could spark a return to the winners enclosure particularly given she was rated 102 at the beginning of the year, but she is 0-7 and hasn’t got closer than five lengths to the judge since second to Breege at Epsom seven runs ago, so she’s tentatively passed over with that in mind.
A process of elimination suggests Our Golden One can be chanced for Rossa Ryan and Tom Ward, as this Golden Horn filly revels on a softer surface. She too is winless since the beginning of last season when bolting up five lengths at Doncaster over this trip, but she ran a solid race at Goodwood last August when length second to Goodwood Odyssey off 6lbs higher. She failed to stay 1m5f next time out, then lost little in defeat when this at Nottingham on heavy going behind one thrown in off 83.
She didn’t appear to handle the all-weather next time out, and she failed to show up well over 1m4f her two efforts in black type company at the beginning of this season on good ground. Her five lengths fifth at Chester back over this trip was a step in the right direction and she was unsuited by coming up the chewed up part on the straight there, and we can forgive her Goodwood defeat as she was too lit up throughout on the going. Her seven length sixth at Newbury last season reads better than the bare form as the front two pulled five lengths clear of the third, so take them out of the race and it was another step back in the right direction.
That came after a 52 day break, so it’s plausible to think she’ll be sharper now and given she’s now 7lbs lower than her first run this season, she can show up well back against the fillies providing conditions fall her way.
1:50 Ascot – Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Cover Up 6/1 1pt WIN
COVER UP returned from a 56-day break when a two lengths fourth to First Instinct in G3 company two weeks ago in a race where that paid to race prominently. He was only collared late for third by the 114-rated Montassib, and it generally paid to race toward the near-side too so we can upgrade his effort on those accounts.
Prior to that, he landed the C&D Whispering Angel handicap in July, drawing away readily in the manner of one destined to graduate out of handicap company, fending off four subsequent winners in the process. Out of a Pivotal mare, it’s no surprise to see his better form has come on a softer surface and he’s scarcely got that this season, bar his two length second to American Affair in the Scottish Sprint Cup with that on landing Group One honours since, and the second, JM Jungle, also taking the King George Qatar Stakes.
He gave that pair 7lbs and 8lbs respectively that day, and given he landed a 0-105 on soft ground at Doncaster on his last start for the Gosden’s this time last year, the return to similar conditions can suit if coming on for that solid effort after a break in G3 company last time out.
2:05 Newmarket – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo) – Accidental Bid 28/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Phoenix Of Spain colt ACCIDENTAL BID cost just 12,000GNS as a yearling, and after running a huge race at Thirsk on debut he’s changed ownership to Australian Bloodstock Stable who’ll be looking to recoup the price tag in this valuable Auction Stakes.
Despite odds of 150/1, there appeared to be no fluke to his half a length second to 13/8F Be The Standard who was able to put his experience to good use when fending off Accidental Bid, who briefly struck the front after coming wide around runners. That’s a strong piece of form, as the winner was four lengths behind Bow Echo prior to that who’s now rated 114 after taking the Ascendant Stakes and the Royal Lodge.
The fourth from that contest has won since albeit a class five nursery, the fifth has also bolted in at Newmarket in a class four nursery now rated 89 and the ten length six won at 33/1 in an 11k novice at Thirsk next time out.
Given the form has worked out well and he’s evidently well regarded enough to have changed hands, he’s worth an each way play as if coming on for that run then there’s every chance he’ll be smart enough to go close here.
2:40 Newmarket – BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Spiritual 28/1 1pt EW 3 places + Sparks Fly 66/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Cinderella’s Dream has to be taken on with the probability of soft ground which would swerve the odds in the favour of Fallen Angel towards the top of the market, but it would also bode well for the outsider in SPIRITUAL, who couldn’t quite sustain her front-running performance at Sandown in the Atalanta Stakes when behind Lady Of Spain and Blue Bolt. Both of those were returning from a layoff however, so it remains to be seen whether the bounce factor will play a hand, and Spiritual ran a much better race at Doncaster in the Sceptre Stakes when attempting to make all on the far side.
She again couldn’t quite sustain the lead, but the front two home were suited by their midfield pitch and coming towards the centre/near-side, whereas Spiritual’s pitch on the far-side wing didn’t look all that favourable. She battled back for third and shaped as if this step back up to a mile would suit, and it wasn’t long ago that she bolted up in a facile manner in G3 company at Epsom in June from a next time out winner.
Prominent racers have always fared well in this contest and she’s likely to get a freebie from stall ten given both Cinderella’s Dream (9), Lady Of Spain (8) Cheshire Dancer (7) and Atsila (6) are all ridden patiently. She may lack the consistent class of some of these, but a free lead on preferable going at a course she’s performed well at before suggests she’s certainly no back number for a yard who’ve won this twice since 2020.
I’d also like to save on SPARKS FLY with the prospect of soft ground, who wasn’t entirely disgraced behind Fallen Angel, Atsila and Cathedral in the Matron last month. She wasn’t able to adopt preferable front running tactics there, nor was she when flying home late against Spiritual at Epsom in June. She’s only had the three runs this season but she’s an entirely different proposition when given her soft ground, and if able to make all from stall two then she may be able to nick some place money, with her record in October reading 111.
3:35 Ascot – BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Hafeet Alain 12/1 1.5pt EW 5 places
On these shores, HAFEET ALAIN’s record when returning from a break on turf reads 3141141 and his overall form over a mile on turf reads a remarkable 14124211441, hitting the frame in each of his 11 starts.
The Elzaam gelding made all in a comfortable manner on seasonal debut in the Whitsun Cup at Sandown in May, never looking like losing at any stage. His record on ground containing soft in the going according to Timeform reads 51140221441, though at a mile that reads 1224441. He’s only raced here one when a three length fourth last September but that does suggest this track is fine, and while he is on a career high mark, he’s likely to have everything in his favour here and with just the one pace angle in Great Acclaim drawn near him, it’ll be no surprise should he take lengths out of the field early on and successfully make all.
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