GG’s latest recruit Matthew Sutcliffe gives his selections for Saturday’s superb card at Doncaster, including his pick for the Group 1 St Leger!
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Published: 4.10pm 14th September (Odds correct at time of publication)
St Leger Festival Punts
DAY THREE (SATURDAY)
2.25 Doncaster – Betfred Portland (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
MAKANAH (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W *William Hill & Bet365 paying 6 places*)
Makanah was a huge eye-catcher behind Equilateral in the opening race of the Ebor meeting last month, when stall 20 wasn’t ideal. Those who raced on down the far-side/middle part of the track appeared to make earlier ground easier that day and the 1st/2nd gained a slight advantage, as the likes of Makanah and Jm Jungle conceded ground by drifting left in the final furlong across to to where the action was unfolding. The form is working out nicely, Alligator Alley (2nd) followed up in a racing league contest next time out, Jm Jungle (3rd) was beaten a length off a pound higher at Haydock, and Looking For Lynda (8th) won well making all back at York. The handicapper was rather kind to leave Makanah unchanged off a mark of 96 given he was only beaten 3/4L (and gaining with every stride), and it’s no surprise connections send him here given he was beaten 3L off 5lbs higher in last years contest having been beaten 1 3/4L at York prior.
3.00 Doncaster – Betfred Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
SPYCATCHER/BIGGLES (1pt Straight Forecast)
I was hoping that the 3/1 about Spycatcher yesterday would hold, or at the most shorten a point, after declarations were made this morning. However that was wishful thinking, and it’s not in my nature (certainly not this column’s!) to tip a horse at a price that now around 6/4. That said, I simply think he’s bombproof in this line up, an opinion formed very much on the basis of the soft going, and eliminating those unlikely to handle it in the process. While he’s arguably a better horses over 6F, his G1 2nd last time out suggests he’s far too classy for these, and that race has thrown up winners of this contest in recent years.
Audience has improved a chunk since a gelding operation and being equipped with a first time hood, but his only below par effort came on ‘good-to-soft’ going, an this even softer ground would pose a question mark. Sandrine won on heavy as a two-year old but has since been kept to better ground, with her only runs on soft ground saw her beaten a 10L 9th, and a 3L 6th, latterly behind Spycatcher. Jumby and Pogo both have a clear preference for firmer going, and that pair both have to find something to reverse the form with Audience. That leaves us with Biggles, who’s record on heavy-GS reads 2611221. He was unlucky to bump into Rebel Territory when 2nd in the Victoria Cup, but he did finish 1/4l in front of Spycatcher there so is entitled to get closer to him despite what the official ratings suggest. He showed his liking for soft going when impressively taking the Bunbury Cup, and he’s interesting on his first start in group company with his preference for the softer going firmly in his favour over the others.
3.35 Doncaster – Betfred St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) right (1m6½f)
ALEXANDROUPOLIS – (25/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W *3 places, SkyBet paying 4 places*)
Alexandroupolis is the lowest rated horse in what is a very wide open renewal of the coveted St Leger, but I’m positive he can rate higher now tackling a test of this nature. He made a smart debut last September, overcoming trouble in running to beat the subsequent Criterium 2nd Espionage a shade cosily. He was put away for the winter, unsurprisingly given his dam is from the family of Kew Gardens, Wordsworth, Thawaamy and Snow, who all took their form to a new level as a three year old, in particular Kew Garden’s who won the St Leger for connections in 2018. Alexandroupolis returned as a beaten favourite in the G3 Ballysax, a race won four times in the last six years by Aidan O’Brien. Interestingly, Capri was also beaten in this contest in 2017 before going on to win the St Leger. The form has worked out somewhat well though, as the winner was subsequently 2nd in the Dante behind The Foxes then placed 3rd in the Derby behind Auguste Rodin. Alexandroupolis may have needed the run that day after 208 days off, and the same could be argued when only 6th in a listed contest at Leopardstown last month. He was a market drifter there and the good ground/slow pace likely didn’t suit the son of Camelot, who was 3/4L away from winning the St Leger in 2012 and denying himself the Triple Crown in the process. With that run under his belt and now back on soft going, I’m hoping Alexandroupolis will take a big step forward. With Gosden running three and O’Brien four, they will likely be a couple of pacemakers ensuring it’s a strong test, which will play to the strengths of Alexandroupolis.
5.20 Doncaster – Hippo Pro 3 Sealant Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
LIBERTY LANE (1pt win – 6/1 generally)
Three years have won six of the last ten renewals of this handicap, and with just four of the fifteen runners of that age, it may pay to stick with one of them. I’ve landed on Karl Burke’s Liberty Lane, who was a facile winner on debut last October beaten a subsequently 94 rated rival by five lengths on soft going. He then bumped into subsequent G3 Hampton Court winner Waipiro in April, before finishing a six length 7th on GF going in the Dante. He took a fair back step when beaten 16L in the Golden Gates but a combination of firm ground and keenness means we can draw a line through it. He bounced right back to form when faring best of those drawn low (and the 3yos) in a competitive handicap at Newmarket down in trip, and that run suggests he may be coming in to form. His keenness remains an issue, but it could be that he’s a very fresh horse around that time of year, and now he finally returns to soft going later on in the year, he can finally rediscover that promise he showed on debut. There’s often plenty of pace on in this contest, and he’s likely to be well covered up with three of the last ten winners of the race having come from stall one.
Matt Sutcliffe’s St Leger Day Three Bets
DAY THREE (SATURDAY)
2.25 Doncaster – MAKANAH (1pt E/W six places – 12/1 generally)
3.00 Doncaster – SPYCATCHER/BIGGLES (1pt Straight Forecast)
3.35 Doncaster – ALEXANDROUPOLIS (0.5pt E/W three places – 25/1 generally)
5.20 Doncaster – LIBERTY LANE (1pt win – 6/1 generally)
Matt Sutcliffe’s tip for Saturday 16th September 2023.
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