With a look ahead to this weekend’s meetings at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar, here are Matty Sutcliffe’s early thoughts and best bets.
Published: 2.35pm, Tuesday, October 1st (Odds correct at time of writing)
Weekend Recap
Last Saturday was probably foreshadowed by the two seconds we had at Newmarket on the Thursday, with both of those selections unfavoured by their track position on the wing with the winners both making all up the rail. There was some solace to be had with Sirona making amends with a 2pt bet on Friday’s opener, and I thought we could be info a full house when both Sea Of Roses and Task Force were both well backed but ultimately there were no excuses for that pair.
Non-runners meant the four places on Santa Savana was downgraded to three, and she was checked at a crucial point in running, typically having to settle for fourth. It went downhill from there with Law Of Design seemingly finding G2 company too hot (no excuses), and Flaccianello finishing last of the 12 runners. That result was a tough one to take as I was incredibly keen on her chances, and the eventual winner had 4lbs to find with Flaccianello on their run at Pontefract run in July.
The less said about the Cambridgeshire the better, as my initial worry for Balmacara was his draw, but the action was all across the far side and Balmacara was beaten into 14th despite initially being well-placed. The ground was a minor concern with Mythical Guest, but I had hoped the Make Believe influence would have shone through, sadly it wasn’t to be. Liberty Lane added further insult to injury, as I’ve banged on forever about his ability to be a G3 horse at least.
Ultimately, it was a below par weekend at Newmarket from myself, though should those second’s have been better positioned on Thursday and Santa Savana not been checked in running, we’d be sitting here in a much better light. That’s racing however, and we’ll go again this weekend.
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ITV Races
Eight races feature on ITV this Saturday, with Ascot having the lion’s share with four, Newmarket with three and Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy is given the penultimate slot. The British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (C2 3yo+ 0-105) opens the proceedings at Newmarket and with the ground already soft, with further rain forecast, we could be in for another day for the mud-lovers. That said, there’s some hope that the weather may dry up toward the back end of the week, and that may mean we’re in for some of that awful, sticky/tacky going where generally you’d prefer to be on the front end as it can be tough to peg the leaders back in that sort of going.
22 fillies are entered at this stage, with three-year-olds responsible for 50% of those. Six of the eight runnings of this have gone to a three-year-old, all of whom had finished no worse than third in their last contested handicap. Via Sistina is a slight outlier in that respect, as she won the race on handicap debut after being beaten in the G2 Prix de Malleret earlier that summer.
Just one of those 3yos had a rating below 88, which was Charles Hills’ Nashmeya in 2017, and we’ve only four of them above that rating in Forever Blue, La Pasionaria, Treasure, and Warda Jamila. However, only one of those (Warda Jamila) had finished better than third in their last handicap, so Balding’s well-bred daughter of Calyx can be considered at this stage. Regarding La Pasionaria, like Via Sistine she’ll be making her handicap debut after being beaten twice in pattern company, but she returns from a break and given she beat Matsuri on debut on the exact day (5th October) last season, a mark of 98 may underestimate her dropping into this company.
Remarkably, there’s only been one renewal of this race ran on ‘soft’ ground which was won by an exposed four year old at 14/1, so we shouldn’t rule out any of those, particularly if they’ve shown good form around this time of year. Ed Dunlop’s daughter of Soldier Hollow Roxanne could be of interest from a low weight, as she was unbeaten (3/3) in Germany this time last year and returned to form at York last month when beaten a short head by the 2/1F. She settled well there, and this soft ground will be no issue for her. Karmology can also be considered dropping back into handicap company after three respectable efforts in listed contests, with the form of her York handicap win off top-weight in July on soft going working out nicely.
There’s no prices available at the current time of writing (Tuesday 10:50am), but I’ll likely revisit the contest as there’s a few in here I can make a strong case for at this stage.
1:50 Ascot – BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Democracy Dilemma 10/1 1pt WIN
Over to Ascot now, and with further rain forecast to heavy ground, the potential dry spells later in the week mightn’t be enough to prevent it from being a gruelling renewal of the Rous Stakes. Relief Rally looks a worthy favourite having fared well down in trip on heavy ground at Newbury in G3 company two weeks ago, but she’s now 0-3 as a 3yo and potentially vulnerable to those better suited to this trip and ground.
Beautiful Diamond is untested on heavy going, and was beaten three lengths on her only attempt on soft ground when a 4/1JF at Haydock in May. However, she’s 2/2 in Listed company and her sole course and distance visit saw her beaten a neck in G3 company in May. She was far from disgraced in G1 company at the Curragh and has to be shortlisted at this stage, for all she’s accordingly priced at around 4/1.
There’s a few in here we can rule out on account of the ground, including last year’s winner Emaraaty Ana, Albasheer, Pink Crystal, Rumstar and Toca Madera. History tells you that recent listed winners tend to fare well, as the ’22, ’21, ’20, ’19, ’18, and ’16 had all won a Listed contest that season, with only Dakota Gold in 2019 not winning one in their previous two runs (came four runs earlier).
Of those qualifying for that trend, we can only consider the aforementioned Beautiful Diamond and DEMOCRACY DILEMMA. I’d be a tad wary about the latter, however, as Robert Cowell is without a win in almost a month, and I’m not overly convinced by Beautiful Diamond regarding the stats that 3yos have only won two of the last ten renewals, and fillies have won just one, not to mention her better efforts have come on quicker ground.
Desperate Hero has been well backed since the market opened, shortening from 8/1 into 11/2, but this horse is becoming a bit of an enigma to me as he posted a career best on good ground in blistering fashion at Hamilton, but he’s a multiple winner on heavy ground. Heavy ground was used as an excuse when well beaten in the Portland last year, and he was withdrawn on it at Newbury last month when supposedly off his feed. I think he has bundles of ability and is capable at this level, but he’s had some tough races of late and this heavy ground might catch up with him again.
I’m going to put aside the yard form of Robert Cowell, and chance that Democracy Dilemma can make all in a race lacking pace. Prominent racers have dominated this contest in recent seasons including three who made all, and if Democracy Dilemma replicates that effort from Newbury last time out he may prove tough to peg back. He potentially was made too much use off on the front end that day, but Rossa Ryan held on to him for what felt like an age while the others were all hard at work in front and I’d imagine the button will be pressed much earlier this time around.
Three of his five of his top RPR’s (including that run) have come on ground containing soft in the description, so although he’s tailored to a firmer surface, he won’t be fazed by the going nor will he by the two week turnaround given his win in the Beverley Bullet – a race that’s thrown up multiple winners of this one – came ten days after a one length fourth off top-weight at York. Beverley’s stiff finish bodes well for his chances at Ascot, and he looks the most solid bet at the prices here.
2:05 Newmarket – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)
It would be unwise to spend a considerable amount of time discussing this twenty nine runner two year old Auction Stakes at this stage with no prices/draw available, but history tells us you generally want to focus on a horse rated in the 80s and with Brighton Boy the only one of those qualifiers to have won on soft ground, he looks a solid option to keep onside once the market opens.
2:25 Ascot – BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – God’s Window 14/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Old foes Al Aasy and Al Qareem are both jocked up to renew their rivalry with each other, with the latter winning this contest last season and the former beaten thirteen lengths (presumably picked up a knock). The ground will be fine for the pair, and while Al Aasy is accordingly priced at 9/4, he’s yet to notch up a hattrick of runs (0-3 when winning previous two) and is 0-3 in October. He tends to show his best form either side of the summer, and I think he’s worth taking on at the prices.
Al Qareem has been on the go in pattern company since April and this heavy/soft ground might find him out this time based on that, and Hamish has looked a shadow of himself in his previous two runs, for all he did win this in 2022. The fragile Eydon could easily bounce on this heavy going after his 2nd to Persica on a firmer surface at Ayr from 210 days off, and Salt Bay is 0-9 since his debut win in 2022.
For a G3, there’s a mammoth amount of negatives for those toward the fore of the market and I wonder if GOD’S WINDOW can take advantage of that now he’s shown a bit more in cheekpieces of late.
I’m surprised they haven’t gelded this son of Dubawi yet, but he made a promising debut on soft ground at the St Leger meeting last season finishing ahead of both Deira Mile and Bellum Justum in a race that was dominated by those to the fore of the pace. He was then an eye-catcher when a two lengths third in the G1 Futurity in bottomless ground behind the Dante 2nd Ancient Wisdom and German 2000 Guineas winner Devil’s Point, putting himself in the Derby picture for the following season.
He reappeared with a facile eight length win in April albeit at 1/14, but went backwards then on after a 6L 4th when slowly away in the Dee Stakes at Chester. He was below par again in the Dante, and well beaten in the Derby. Though slowly away and keen, he posted an RPR of 107 in listed company at Hamilton giving 5lbs to Kalpana, and subsequently matched that form when five lengths behind that one in the September Stakes at Kempton, finishing half a length behind stablemate Lion’s Pride (108) though finishing well ahead of Hamish.
He’s shaped on both those occasions as if slowly coming to the boil, and perhaps this time of year is when he’ll finally come good. He’s evidently suited to a deeper surface, and the potential for a strong gallop with Al Qareem and Shadow Dance will suit his hold up style. Three year olds have won this contest in recent renewals, and his handy allowance puts him 1lbs better off with Al Aasy and 2lbs better off with Al Qareem. Last time out was his first go against his elders and he matched a career best RPR there, so with any natural progression then he may be able to capitalise on some of the negatives of those shorter in the market.
2.40 Newmarket – Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Elmalka 10/1 1pt WIN
An open looking renewal of the Sun Chariot Stakes given we only have two last time out winners, and those came in G2/G3 company. Last years’ winner Inspiral is 0-3 since her Breeders’ Cup success, though fared best of the closers in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time out which signalled a return to form.
Tamfana looks awfully short for winning what was essentially a penalty kick last time out as she had 13lbs in hand with the two length second rated 105, and she’s easily passed over at this stage for me. Nashwa was beaten 25L over C&D on Champions Day with soft ground to blame, so unless it rapidly dries out then you’d have to fear for her chances.
Sea The Fire is 0-4 over a mile and 0-5 in G1 company, and she was flattered by her position up the golden highway of the far-side rail at York in the G3 Strensall Stakes at York in August, with soft ground also a potential worry judged on her last two career best efforts on good to firm.
ELMALKA is the one potentially overlooked in the market at this stage, as the surprise 1000 Guineas winner has done nothing wrong in two G1’s since. The daughter of Kingman, from the excellent family Benbatl, got up close to home in he C&D classic and lost nothing in defeat to the subsequent three time G1 winner Porta Fortuna, G1 Nassau winner Opera Singer and potentially deserved 1000 Guineas winner Ramatuelle in defeat there when poorly positioned to the rear/ outer by James Doyle with the front two always better suited to the fore/inside.
She matched that form when a 3L fourth in the G1 Nassau Stakes, when Opera Singer was typically give an enterprising front running ride by Ryan Moore, and I’m not all that sure she was seen to best effect over 1m2F as she weakened late on.
The drop back to a stiff mile at a track where she thrived on can only be a positive, especially given she’s the only one to have won a group one this season in this lineup. I think she’s underestimated given the large majority value her Guineas win as more of a fluke, but she’s bang there on adjusted ratings and this softer ground will suit judged on her slight high knee action.
3:00 Ascot – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Six of the last ten winners of this race were sent off favourite, and 13/2 was the highest winning SP so history tells us that the fore of the market is favoured. The 9/4 about Wokingham winner and Sprint Cup third Unequal Love could look fairly lenient come the off. Four of the last ten winners of this race had ran at Haydock last time out, with three of them contesting the G1 Sprint Cup (3rd, 4th, 7th) so that further boosts Unequal Love’s chances, and factoring in the soft ground, she looks a fairly rock solid option.
I can’t see a valid reason for taking her on so I’m unlikely to revisit the race later in the week, but Sam Maximus might be worth keeping an eye on for Hugo Palmer. He’s a long layoff to contend with, but certainly has the ability to feature at this level and a gelding operation could easily have improved him further. He has soft ground form when second to Art Power at the Curragh four starts ago, and it’s interesting that Palmer chucks this G1 entered son of Showcasing in here first time up. 40/1 might be worth a quid each way at this stage, but in truth I can’t see past Unequal Love in here, and she can be one for your accumulators.
3:20 Redcar – William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
I won’t spend too much time on this race at this stage, given six of the last ten renewals have been won by a favourite and the 102 rated Billboard Star is well clear on weight adjusted ratings, but there’s not a whole lot of soft ground form to go on in here so it may be a contest I revisit post decs, not least with my old friend Jayvee, who I’m adamant is better than a mark of 78 and may be able to finally prove that back on a softer surface, which she won on at Beverley on debut.
3:35 Ascot – BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Pearle d’Or 33/1 1pt EW (1/4 odds 4 places)
What better way to end the column for now with an 18-Runner, 7f handicap at Ascot with 36 currently entered. But there is, in my opinion, a stand out bet for my becoming nemesis in David O’Meara in the form of PEARLE D’OR.
The saying that ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results’ was reportedly coined by Albert Einstein, but if he was around today I’d imagine he’d skew that notion and instead define it as ‘continuously backing a David O’Meara horse in a big field handicap’. Well, I’m certainly bordering on insane. I promised myself that I would overlook the yard’s horses after Blue For You was given one of the most blatant non-trying rides in history from a plum draw at York in the Clipper Handicap, but like an old hopeless romantic I’ve been sucked in again.
You may remember Pearle d’Or was a pointer for the column when third in this contest last season, where I wrote the following:
“A 2lbs rise will surely underestimate the level of improvement David O’Meara will continue to bring out of PEARLE D’OR. It was evident that those who raced on the nearside were favoured in the Howden Handicap, so Pearle D’Or’s effort up the centre can be marked up plenty. He broke away from his far side group and probably got lonely in the closing stages, though still kept on well enough. Punters who supported him can feel somewhat unlucky too, given he was drawn in 9, and stalls 13,11 and 12 had all finished strongly up the nearside. Had Crowley gone left out of the stalls, I’ve no doubt Pearle D’Or would’ve won the race. We might not see him again this season, as O’Meara will surely mind his mark for some of the top handicaps at Ascot next season. Given he’s a heavy ground winner, stays on over 7F and is related to three winners over a mile, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him line up in the Lincoln Handicap next season.”
Pearle d’Or unfortunately didn’t appear in the Lincoln, but instead was beaten eight lengths on the Rowley Mile in April when taking a keen hold in rear and not persevered with. He was then heavily backed into favouritism for the Victoria Cup when given an awful ride by Silvestre De Sousa, coming down the unfavourable outside having initially travelled well covered up to the inner. He was only beaten four lengths in a race that’s worked out well, and his two subsequent efforts since have also been pleasing.
He was a beaten favourite at Doncaster when given too much to do in rear, beaten a length into fourth before unsuited by the good to firm surface at Newbury in July, having initially travelled well in rear, finishing behind three subsequent winners.
He actually won that Newbury race last season off a 3lbs lower mark, but that came on suitable heavy ground so he’s evidently been campaigned for a repeat tilt here. His record on ground containing soft in the description reads 1302131 and his C&D form on soft ground reads 213, so he’s clearly suited to these conditions and if given a more favourable draw this time around, he’s sure to go well from a 3lbs lower mark after he won his group on the far-side last season. David O’Meara won this with Escobar in 2022 who was previously third in the prior renewal, which further bodes well.
This is the last chance saloon for Pearle d’Or and his handler, but with this ground in his favour it’s hard to envisage him not being primed for this. I’ll likely revisit the race post-decs, but he’s as confident a selection he could be at this stage coming from that yard.
Additional Selection – Added: 2.55pm, Thursday, October 3rd (Odds correct at time of writing)
1:30 Newmarket British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – La Pasionaria 0.5pt EW 14/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Twelve of the initial twenty two fillies entered have stood their ground for post-decs, including
Warda Jemila, LA PASIONARIA and Karmology, all of whom I gave a good nod for when previewing the race one Tuesday.
I wouldn’t put anyone off playing the trio in combination tricasts, but I’m fairly keen on the chances of La Pasionaria for Ralph Beckett, whose string often excel around this time of year. As mentioned, the beautifully bred daughter of Lope De Vega made her debut on this (5th October) day last season when gamely winning an informative Salisbury novice on soft ground, fending off the subsequent Irish Derby 4th Matsuri (114 OR).
She bombed out here when 10/1 for the Listed Montrose Stakes, but that may have been a step too soon in her career and she returned this season with an excellent three length 4th in the G3 Musidora, only weakening late on. She was rated 81 going into that race but finished close up behind the yards 102 rated Classical Song (4th in last season’s Fillies Mile), with the 2nd and 1st now rated 100 and 104.
She failed to get competitive in the G3 Hoppings’ Fillies Stakes at Newcastle in June, but she was unsuited by her track position in rear and it was a seriously hot renewal largely dominated by four-year-olds, finishing two lengths behind one now rated 101 and five length behind the 104 rated Sea Of Roses.
While she’ll have to defy a stiff enough mark of 98 on handicap debut, the aforementioned bits of form suggests that’s workable and the opposition are significantly weaker. She receives a handy 3yo allowance to drop her off top-weight, and the return to this softer surface will suit better than most. Beckett has yet to win this, but he saddled the second in it last season and was third with the classy State Occasion in 2021, with the winner that year Via Sistina who was making her handicap debut having dropping back from pattern company.
Bets Summary
1:30 Newmarket – La Pasionaria 14/1 0.5pt EW
1:50 Ascot – Democracy Dilemma 10/1 1pt win
2:25 Ascot – God’s Window 14/1 0.5pt EW (1/5 odds 3 places)
2:40 Newmarket – Elmalka 10/1 1pt WIN
3:35 Ascot – Pearle d’Or 33/1 1pt EW (1/4 odds 4 places)
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