Matthew Sutcliffe talks us through his bets for the first two days of the Ebor Festival at York.
He’s confident with one in the Acomb Stakes, as well as an E/W tip in the opener and a win tip in the final race on day one, whilst he also puts up four tips on the second day’s card.
Published: 10.25pm 21st August (Odds correct at time of publication)
Updated: 9.40am 23rd August (Red Zone Hero, Brunch + Twilight Romance added)
York Ebor Festival Tips
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
13:50 Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
EQUILATERAL (10/1 generally – 1pt E/W *William Hill six places, SkyBet 9/1 seven places*)
A typically competitive handicap kicks the Ebor week off which see’s a fascinating blend of in-form sprinters and those dropping down in the weights battle for a valuable £61,848 prize. Equilateral hasn’t won in the UK since September 2019, but he’s of major interest dropping into handicap company where he has a 100% strike rate. Despite his lack of a recent win, he’s ran well in defeat in strong company this season. He began with a one length 2nd to Dramatised in the G2 Temple Stakes before filling that same spot in the Listed Achilles Stakes, finishing ahead of the likes of Korker, Fine Wine and Mondammej who all reappear here. He then ran an excellent race when 5th in the G1 King’s Stand before failing to cope with the soft ground in the G2 Qatar Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Although not as progressive as some, he is undoubtedly the class angle in this contest and the cliched ‘group horse in a handicap’. As a result of such, he carries top weight here which is unfavourable going by the races’ trends, however I’m more interested in the fact he’ll crucially get his favoured good-firm ground, which his top RPR’S (112) have come on this season. York is a track where you ideally want to be on one who travels well in their races and Equilateral often does. All but two of the last twelve winners of this contest were either ‘prominent throughout’ or ‘made all’ so I’m hoping they persevere with forward-going tactics, however given there’s going to be a fair amount of early pace on particularly with Fine Wine, his middle draw will allow him to be held up in midfield where he’s just as effective. Six of his seven wins have come with a jockey riding him for the first time so the booking of Jamie Spencer is a positive, especially given you’d be £60.11+ from a £1 stake all time when backing Spencer riding for Hills, who are 4-2-1 this season.
14:25 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo)
COGITATE (10/3 generally – 1.5pt WIN)
This renewal of the Acomb Stakes doesn’t have an immediate star-studded cast, though five of the six runners were last time out winners and all are open to improvement. The one who strikes me as potentially classier than the others is Charles Hills’ Cogitate. The son of Churchill made a taking debut in a historically competitive maiden at Newbury, recording the same RPR (88) as last year’s winner Chaldean (who had two runs prior) who subsequently went on to take the Acomb Stakes. Although keen in the early stages of the contest, he caught the eye travelling strongly and was able to quickly put daylight between his rivals, winning a shade cosily. Hills has only had three runners in this contest in the last seven runnings, winning two of them (once with William Buick) and having a beaten favourite in the other, so he clearly sends his best types here. The yard tend to look after their two years olds, but they’ve had some nice ones come through this year such as Vintage Stakes 2nd Iberian, so it’s interesting they’ve chosen Cogitate as their candidate this year. Regarding the rest, I thought Ballymount Boy was flattered in his proximity to subsequent Prix Morny winner Vandeek, presumably why he’s favourite in here at the time of writing, and he has to cope with the change to quicker ground. The Edwardian was a cosy winner over 5F last time out but the step up to 7F on quick ground is a massive unknown, not to mention Aidan O’Brien hasn’t had too much luck in this race. The tongue-tie added to Loose Cannon would have to be a concerning addition given his win over course and distance on debut last time out in what wasn’t a strong contest by any means. Hot Fuss improved for the soft ground when breaking his maiden last time out and is susceptible back on this surface. Indian Run would be my only worry, as I was impressed with how he stepped up on what was a promising debut originally to win well at Ascot last time out, with the 2nd winning and the extra furlong to suit.
17:20 Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo)
RED ZONE HERO (6/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
Newmarket-based Michael Bell sends just the one horse up to York for the last race of the day, last time out winner Red Zone Hero. The son of Starspangledbanner justified short odds at Ayr with ease, but his 2nd to Seven Question’s before that suggests his opening mark of 80 is a lenient one. He was beaten half a length by that one who’s since followed up twice, latterly winning on handicap debut off a mark of 88 now rated 96. That form entitles him to be competitive in this nursery off 80 and his entry in the Mill Reef suggests he’s held in some high regard.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
13:50 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)
BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND (12/1 generally – 1pt E/W 3 places)
The return to a flatter track should suit the Queen Mary favourite Beautiful Diamond, who was a solid 3rd in the contest. I think she’s certainly overpriced given she was just two lengths behind Relief Rally, who at the current time of writing is the 6/4 favourite in some places. The daughter of Twilight Son kept on well that day suggesting an extra furlong is worth exploring, and Karl Burke has won two of the last four runnings of the race, including with one who was 3rd prior at Royal Ascot.
14:25 Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)
TWILIGHT ROMANCE (9/1 generally – 1pt WIN)
It was interesting to hear John Quinn speaking about Twilight Romance after his C&D win in June, stating that they’d earmarked this contest for him a while back. He was a very well backed favourite there, and duly obliged when impressively drawing away from We Never Stop to win by 2 3/4L. I wouldn’t be overly concerned that Kevin Ryan’s mount reversed that form at Pontefract next time out, as I don’t think Twilight Romance was all that comfortable around Pontefract and the return to a straight/flat track on good-firm should suit, not to mention he was giving the winner 4lbs and gets 2lbs off him this time. The yard have had a quiet time of things recently so it was pleasing to see them get on board with a winner last time out, they are profitable to follow in non-handicaps at York in the last five seasons, and their record in them reads 2-1-1 this year.
15:00 Clipper Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
ORBAAN (20/1 generally – 0.5pt E/W five places)
Before the ante-post curse struck with Brunch missing from the declarations late on, my original angle in the race was to play one of David O’Meara’s, who filled three of the first four finishing spots in this contest last year. It only seems natural to revisit that angle with Orbaan, who was a strong staying on 4th in the race last year. He’s a tricky horse to weigh up as he’s still 7lbs higher than his last winning mark which saw him take the Golden Mile at Goodwood last season, beating stablemate Blue For You by 3 1/4L, who immediately followed up in this contest last year. Blue For You reappears here but is 9lbs higher this time around whereas Orbaan is 5lbs lower, so he’s entitled to get the better of his stablemate once again. He’s shaped like a return to the winners enclosure is imminent all season, while not getting the rub of the green too often. He was a strong staying on 5th in the Sunday Series at Sandown just three days ago, but I’m not concerned about the quick turnaround as his Goodwood success came six days after his 8th in the Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot (beaten a similar distance in this years renewal) and his subsequent win at Ascot came just nine days later. The handicapper been reluctant to relent too much this season, but a mark of 94 is certainly workable and he looks a shade overpriced at 20s, especially with O’Meara targeting this contest over the years.
16:10 British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
CLOUDBREAKER (10/1 generally – 1pt E/W three places)
The well-related daughter of Sea The Stars has improved with every run this season and hasn’t looked out of place in this grade. After underperforming on soft ground, she outran her 14/1 odds in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes. The form of that has worked out very well, she finished 1/2L behind Crack Of Light who’s since had a prolific campaign in France, winning a listed race at Longchamp before placing twice in Group company. Two lengths ahead of her was Bluestocking, who finished behind the winner Warm Heart again in the G2 Ribblesdale before being beaten 1/2L in Irish Oaks by Savethelastdance. That trio will all likely line up in the Yorkshire Oaks, making Cloudbreaker a worthy contender in this listed grade. Fellowes’ filly was then an excellent 3L 3rd in the King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot, where the 2nd has since finished 1 1/2l behind Melbourne Cup bound Vauban, and the winner followed up in a group three at Glorious Goodwood. She then ran into another Oaks-bound filly in Novakai at Newmarket, where as often on the July course, she couldn’t make ground from the rear but still recorded a career best RPR. With the ground drying rapidly in her favour, I think this filly can continue her progressive ways.
Matt Sutcliffe’s Weekend Bets
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
1.50 York – EQUILATERAL (1pt E/W six places – 10/1 generally)
2.25 York – COGITATE (1.5pt WIN – 10/3 generally)
5.20 York – RED ZONE HERO (1pt win – 9/1 generally)
DAY TWO (Thursday)
1.50 York – BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND (1pt E/W three places – 12/1 generally)
2.25 York – TWILIGHT ROMANCE (1pt WIN – 9/1 generally)
3.00 York – ORBAAN (0.5pt E/W five places – 20/1 generally)
4.10 York – CLOUDBREAKER (1pt E/W three places – 10/1 generally)
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